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MLB DFS 4/12/16 Slate Breakdown

Let’s get to it.

Pitchers

Noah Syndergaard,  NYM

Projected to allow the fewest runs in this slate, note Syndergaard’s exit velocity of 83mph allowed in his first start of the season — by far the lowest of any pitcher today. Averaging 10.1 strikeouts per nine, Syndergaard is considered an elite cash option against a Marlins offense that recorded the second-lowest Isolated Power (ISO) versus right-handed pitching last season.

Jose Fernandez, MIA

Set to oppose Syndergaard, Fernandez’s 11.9 K/9 qualifies as the highest among pitchers. With an 85% Bargain Rating at FanDuel, Fernandez is considered a slightly lesser option in comparison to Syndergaard despite his notable average of .648 home runs per nine innings allowed in the last year.

Gio Gonzalez, WSH

Gonzalez’s moneyline of -200 is the highest among pitchers. Though a 1.4 WHIP that could easily backfire if rostering him, his batted-ball distance over the last 12 months is considered the fourth highest at his position. Though he’ll likely have high exposure given his obvious Vegas positives, his 11 Pro Trends keep him as a viable option if looking to shy away from the more expensive options.

Pitchers to Exploit

Jeff Samardzija, SF

Colorado’s projected .338 wOBA against Samardzija qualifies as the second-highest among lineups tonight. Unfortunately for Samardzija, everyone in their projected batting order additionally has a positive ISO Differential vs. RHP.

Matt Moore, TB

Moore’s slate-high .296 strikeouts per at-bat are always a concern if targeting him, however, his horrid 1.58 WHIP leaves much to be desired. With enough firepower vs. LHP between their 1-5 hitters, the Indians are considered an under-the-radar stack in tournaments.

C

Evan Gattis, HOU

Although I’m not entirely sure he’ll get the nod today, Houston certainly didn’t call up Gattis to leave his .867 slugging percentage from the minors on the bench. Listed as an outfielder at DraftKings, we’re filing Gattis as a catcher given his value at that position at FanDuel, where he includes an absurd Bargain Rating of 98%. Additionally, note his ISO of .234 vs. RHP last season.

Carlos Ruiz, PHI

Quietly slugging .528 vs. LHP, Ruiz’s batted-ball distance of 228 feet is third-highest among catchers with at least three starts. Given his wOBA and ISO Differentials of .169/.136, he’s a tremendous tournament option if starting behind the plate.

1B

Mike Napoli, CLE

With a .120 wOBA Differential tonight, Napoli is always in consideration when opposing a southpaw. He remains the cog in lineup construction (batting cleanup and all) if stacking Cleveland.

Brandon Belt, SF

Though a negative ISO Differential, Belt remains one of only four first basemen with at least five starts averaging a batted-ball air time over 4.00 seconds. Batting fifth for a Giants lineup projected to score the most runs tonight, Belt is considered a strong option in cash and tournaments alike.

2B

Joe Panik, SF

Expected to return to San Francisco’s lineup tonight, Panik’s wOBA vs. RHP ranks fourth among second basemen. Projected to hit second, he’s considered an elite cash option at his position.

3B

Manny Machado, BAL

Machado’s Hard-Hit Differential of 22% over the past 15 days leads all third basemen in this slate. Set to oppose a righty, his wOBA and ISO Differential splits of .076/.079 are certainly viable in cash.

SS

Trevor Story, COL

His 1.22 slugging vs. RHP will certainly regress at some point, but as it stands, all of Story’s peripherals — 98 mph exit velocity, 11 Pro Trends, batted-ball distance of 296 feet — keep him as the top option among shortstops.

Francisco Lindor, CLE

Expected to bat only one spot ahead of Napoli, Lindor’s .520 slugging percentage vs. RHP trails only Story at their respective position.

OF

Preston Tucker, HOU

Tucker isn’t an everyday player, but he’s certainly cash viable if starting for Houston Tuesday night. His wOBA and ISO Differentials, for instance, both qualify in the top four among outfielders. Furthermore, Tucker’s Hard-Hit Differential of 54% over the last 15 days leads his position.

Rajai Davis, CLE

Though a negative wOBA Differential, Davis’ 10 Pro Trends trail only Carlos Gonzalez and Bryce Harper among outfielders. His steal rate of .158 remains in the top 10.

Carlos Gonzalez, COL

Underpriced at DraftKings where he has a Bargain Rating of 91%, Gonzalez is the chalk of all chalk at his position. Note his wOBA and ISO Differentials of .183/.222. In a smaller slate, he would need either an extremely unique combination surrounding him or to be faded entirely in tournaments.

Michael Taylor, CIN

What’s the opposite of “good”? That’s how you would describe Taylor’s performance this season. Either way, he’s a leadoff hitter with a 95% Bargain Rating at FanDuel.

Weather Watch

For the second day in a row, we’re in the clear!

Two Things I Like Or Don’t Like

Cory Spangenberg As of Late

Spangenberg has crushed expectations over his last three games, but nothing really adds up. He steals bases at an elite rate — .092 per game — but his batted-ball distance of 165 this season, as well as a miserable fly-ball percentage of 16%, scream regression.

Ouch, It Burns

There’s no denying Billy Burns as an elite baserunner, and when leading off for the A’s against lefties, he’s almost a must in at least one of your lineups. But the recent installment of Coco Crisp at the top of their batting order is something worth monitoring each and every night. Burns is basically mandatory at FanDuel if leading off — he has a Bargain Rating of 99%.

Good luck!

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Let’s get to it.

Pitchers

Noah Syndergaard,  NYM

Projected to allow the fewest runs in this slate, note Syndergaard’s exit velocity of 83mph allowed in his first start of the season — by far the lowest of any pitcher today. Averaging 10.1 strikeouts per nine, Syndergaard is considered an elite cash option against a Marlins offense that recorded the second-lowest Isolated Power (ISO) versus right-handed pitching last season.

Jose Fernandez, MIA

Set to oppose Syndergaard, Fernandez’s 11.9 K/9 qualifies as the highest among pitchers. With an 85% Bargain Rating at FanDuel, Fernandez is considered a slightly lesser option in comparison to Syndergaard despite his notable average of .648 home runs per nine innings allowed in the last year.

Gio Gonzalez, WSH

Gonzalez’s moneyline of -200 is the highest among pitchers. Though a 1.4 WHIP that could easily backfire if rostering him, his batted-ball distance over the last 12 months is considered the fourth highest at his position. Though he’ll likely have high exposure given his obvious Vegas positives, his 11 Pro Trends keep him as a viable option if looking to shy away from the more expensive options.

Pitchers to Exploit

Jeff Samardzija, SF

Colorado’s projected .338 wOBA against Samardzija qualifies as the second-highest among lineups tonight. Unfortunately for Samardzija, everyone in their projected batting order additionally has a positive ISO Differential vs. RHP.

Matt Moore, TB

Moore’s slate-high .296 strikeouts per at-bat are always a concern if targeting him, however, his horrid 1.58 WHIP leaves much to be desired. With enough firepower vs. LHP between their 1-5 hitters, the Indians are considered an under-the-radar stack in tournaments.

C

Evan Gattis, HOU

Although I’m not entirely sure he’ll get the nod today, Houston certainly didn’t call up Gattis to leave his .867 slugging percentage from the minors on the bench. Listed as an outfielder at DraftKings, we’re filing Gattis as a catcher given his value at that position at FanDuel, where he includes an absurd Bargain Rating of 98%. Additionally, note his ISO of .234 vs. RHP last season.

Carlos Ruiz, PHI

Quietly slugging .528 vs. LHP, Ruiz’s batted-ball distance of 228 feet is third-highest among catchers with at least three starts. Given his wOBA and ISO Differentials of .169/.136, he’s a tremendous tournament option if starting behind the plate.

1B

Mike Napoli, CLE

With a .120 wOBA Differential tonight, Napoli is always in consideration when opposing a southpaw. He remains the cog in lineup construction (batting cleanup and all) if stacking Cleveland.

Brandon Belt, SF

Though a negative ISO Differential, Belt remains one of only four first basemen with at least five starts averaging a batted-ball air time over 4.00 seconds. Batting fifth for a Giants lineup projected to score the most runs tonight, Belt is considered a strong option in cash and tournaments alike.

2B

Joe Panik, SF

Expected to return to San Francisco’s lineup tonight, Panik’s wOBA vs. RHP ranks fourth among second basemen. Projected to hit second, he’s considered an elite cash option at his position.

3B

Manny Machado, BAL

Machado’s Hard-Hit Differential of 22% over the past 15 days leads all third basemen in this slate. Set to oppose a righty, his wOBA and ISO Differential splits of .076/.079 are certainly viable in cash.

SS

Trevor Story, COL

His 1.22 slugging vs. RHP will certainly regress at some point, but as it stands, all of Story’s peripherals — 98 mph exit velocity, 11 Pro Trends, batted-ball distance of 296 feet — keep him as the top option among shortstops.

Francisco Lindor, CLE

Expected to bat only one spot ahead of Napoli, Lindor’s .520 slugging percentage vs. RHP trails only Story at their respective position.

OF

Preston Tucker, HOU

Tucker isn’t an everyday player, but he’s certainly cash viable if starting for Houston Tuesday night. His wOBA and ISO Differentials, for instance, both qualify in the top four among outfielders. Furthermore, Tucker’s Hard-Hit Differential of 54% over the last 15 days leads his position.

Rajai Davis, CLE

Though a negative wOBA Differential, Davis’ 10 Pro Trends trail only Carlos Gonzalez and Bryce Harper among outfielders. His steal rate of .158 remains in the top 10.

Carlos Gonzalez, COL

Underpriced at DraftKings where he has a Bargain Rating of 91%, Gonzalez is the chalk of all chalk at his position. Note his wOBA and ISO Differentials of .183/.222. In a smaller slate, he would need either an extremely unique combination surrounding him or to be faded entirely in tournaments.

Michael Taylor, CIN

What’s the opposite of “good”? That’s how you would describe Taylor’s performance this season. Either way, he’s a leadoff hitter with a 95% Bargain Rating at FanDuel.

Weather Watch

For the second day in a row, we’re in the clear!

Two Things I Like Or Don’t Like

Cory Spangenberg As of Late

Spangenberg has crushed expectations over his last three games, but nothing really adds up. He steals bases at an elite rate — .092 per game — but his batted-ball distance of 165 this season, as well as a miserable fly-ball percentage of 16%, scream regression.

Ouch, It Burns

There’s no denying Billy Burns as an elite baserunner, and when leading off for the A’s against lefties, he’s almost a must in at least one of your lineups. But the recent installment of Coco Crisp at the top of their batting order is something worth monitoring each and every night. Burns is basically mandatory at FanDuel if leading off — he has a Bargain Rating of 99%.

Good luck!

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No related posts.