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MLB DFS 4/10/16 Slate Breakdown

Let’s get to it.

Pitchers

Dallas Keuchel, HOU

With so few aces involved in advantageous situations today, Keuchel’s matchup comes as a breath of fresh air. Tied for the most Pro Trends among pitchers, Keuchel is additionally projected to allow only 3.3 runs. Although the Brewers offense has crushed as of late, their most notable sluggers (Scooter Gennett, Chris Carter, Jonathan Lucroy) all have a negative Isolated Power Difference against left-handed pitching.

Joe Ross, WAS

Since I only have so many original ideas (and it’s the exact matchup from yesterday), we’re recycling Ross this afternoon. The Marlins, after all, recorded the lowest Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) vs. right-handed pitching last season. With an 85% Bargain Rating at FanDuel, Ross, who’s allowed an average batted-ball distance equivalent to Felix Hernandez over the past 12 months, is still considered a strong tournament play.

Pitchers to Exploit

Steven Wright, BOS

Toronto recorded the highest wOBA and ISO vs. RHP last season. Projected to score the third-most runs in this slate, Toronto should easily be able to tee off on Wright, whose velocity of 82.7 mph over the last year is the slowest at his position.

Josh Tomlin, CLE

Tomlin’s fly-ball percentage of 46% over the last year is pretty much the worst peripheral to have when pitching at U.S. Cellular field. A stack beginning and ending with Adam Eaton and Jose Abreu, both of whom have an elite ISO Difference vs. RHP, is more than fitting for tournaments (especially since most will still be looking to stack the Padres and Rockies).

Jered Weaver, LAA

Averaging the fewest strikeouts per nine among pitchers in this slate, Weaver has additionally allowed the highest average time a batted ball was in the air. Although the second-lowest Park Factor in this entire slate for hitters, the Rangers are considered as good a stack as any for tournaments.

C

Nick Hundley, COL

Projected to hit seventh for the Rockies, note Hundley’s ISO Difference of .118. Additionally slugging .504 vs. RHP, Hundley is considered a unique piece if stacking Colorado in tournaments.

1B

Jose Abreu, CWS

As if anything else needs to be said about how poor this matchup is for Josh Tomlin, tack on the fact that he’s also allowed the most home runs per nine over the last 12 months. Abreu is a lock for cash given his 93% Bargain Rating at FanDuel.

2B

Kolten Wong, STL

With an ISO and wOBA Difference of .102/.109, Wong remains a steal at FanDuel where he has a 95% Bargain Rating. Though he has yet to hit a home run this season, Wong can still provide value in other ways — he’s averaging .092 steals per game over the last 12 months.

3B

Nolan Arenado, COL

Although a painfully obvious cash play, Arenado’s slugging percentage of .581 against RHP remains the highest among third basemen. His ownership will undoubtedly be high, but his 11 Pro Trends (most at his position) need be rostered.

SS

Trevor Story, COL

With a righty back on the mound, Story can be rostered with confidence. Along with a .602 wOBA against said handedness, Story’s 13 Pro Trends remain an option in cash and tournaments alike.

OF

Bryce Harper, WAS

Harper’s .698 slugging percentage vs. RHP leads all outfielders in this slate. Considering the wind is blowing out to left field in Nationals Park, Harper, who’s accumulated an exit velocity that trails only Chris Davis and J.D. Martinez at his position, is mandatory in cash games Sunday. Note his .476 wOBA, which leads all outfielders.

Carlos Gonzalez, COL

Slated with 13 Pro Trends Sunday, Gonzalez’s .221 ISO Difference remains a cog in cash games. Hitting third for Colorado, his ownership in tournaments is expected to be otherworldly, as the Rockies are projected to score the most runs Sunday — unique exposure elsewhere would be warranted.

Curtis Granderson, NYM

Granderson’s wOBA and ISO Differences of .131/.126 vs. RHP just happen to include an absurdly cheap Bargain Rating of 95% at FanDuel. He’s a lock in cash given the value.

Weather Watch

I realize it’s been a brutal week for all those coming over from NBA, but just know that April, although hectic, typically doesn’t see this many postponements (especially in the first week). Whatever the case, Yankees-Tigers has a 71% percent chance of rain this afternoon.

Something I Like Or Don’t Like

The Braves vs. RHP

Although his value seems achievable only at DraftKings where he includes a discount of $500, Wainwright remains an option against an Atlanta for the very reason Carlos Martinez was a strong play: their league-low .107 ISO vs. RHP last season. Wainwright’s SO/9, of course, is much lower than Martinez’s, but it’s a plus that the Braves are projected to score the third-fewest runs in this slate.

Let’s get to it.

Pitchers

Dallas Keuchel, HOU

With so few aces involved in advantageous situations today, Keuchel’s matchup comes as a breath of fresh air. Tied for the most Pro Trends among pitchers, Keuchel is additionally projected to allow only 3.3 runs. Although the Brewers offense has crushed as of late, their most notable sluggers (Scooter Gennett, Chris Carter, Jonathan Lucroy) all have a negative Isolated Power Difference against left-handed pitching.

Joe Ross, WAS

Since I only have so many original ideas (and it’s the exact matchup from yesterday), we’re recycling Ross this afternoon. The Marlins, after all, recorded the lowest Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) vs. right-handed pitching last season. With an 85% Bargain Rating at FanDuel, Ross, who’s allowed an average batted-ball distance equivalent to Felix Hernandez over the past 12 months, is still considered a strong tournament play.

Pitchers to Exploit

Steven Wright, BOS

Toronto recorded the highest wOBA and ISO vs. RHP last season. Projected to score the third-most runs in this slate, Toronto should easily be able to tee off on Wright, whose velocity of 82.7 mph over the last year is the slowest at his position.

Josh Tomlin, CLE

Tomlin’s fly-ball percentage of 46% over the last year is pretty much the worst peripheral to have when pitching at U.S. Cellular field. A stack beginning and ending with Adam Eaton and Jose Abreu, both of whom have an elite ISO Difference vs. RHP, is more than fitting for tournaments (especially since most will still be looking to stack the Padres and Rockies).

Jered Weaver, LAA

Averaging the fewest strikeouts per nine among pitchers in this slate, Weaver has additionally allowed the highest average time a batted ball was in the air. Although the second-lowest Park Factor in this entire slate for hitters, the Rangers are considered as good a stack as any for tournaments.

C

Nick Hundley, COL

Projected to hit seventh for the Rockies, note Hundley’s ISO Difference of .118. Additionally slugging .504 vs. RHP, Hundley is considered a unique piece if stacking Colorado in tournaments.

1B

Jose Abreu, CWS

As if anything else needs to be said about how poor this matchup is for Josh Tomlin, tack on the fact that he’s also allowed the most home runs per nine over the last 12 months. Abreu is a lock for cash given his 93% Bargain Rating at FanDuel.

2B

Kolten Wong, STL

With an ISO and wOBA Difference of .102/.109, Wong remains a steal at FanDuel where he has a 95% Bargain Rating. Though he has yet to hit a home run this season, Wong can still provide value in other ways — he’s averaging .092 steals per game over the last 12 months.

3B

Nolan Arenado, COL

Although a painfully obvious cash play, Arenado’s slugging percentage of .581 against RHP remains the highest among third basemen. His ownership will undoubtedly be high, but his 11 Pro Trends (most at his position) need be rostered.

SS

Trevor Story, COL

With a righty back on the mound, Story can be rostered with confidence. Along with a .602 wOBA against said handedness, Story’s 13 Pro Trends remain an option in cash and tournaments alike.

OF

Bryce Harper, WAS

Harper’s .698 slugging percentage vs. RHP leads all outfielders in this slate. Considering the wind is blowing out to left field in Nationals Park, Harper, who’s accumulated an exit velocity that trails only Chris Davis and J.D. Martinez at his position, is mandatory in cash games Sunday. Note his .476 wOBA, which leads all outfielders.

Carlos Gonzalez, COL

Slated with 13 Pro Trends Sunday, Gonzalez’s .221 ISO Difference remains a cog in cash games. Hitting third for Colorado, his ownership in tournaments is expected to be otherworldly, as the Rockies are projected to score the most runs Sunday — unique exposure elsewhere would be warranted.

Curtis Granderson, NYM

Granderson’s wOBA and ISO Differences of .131/.126 vs. RHP just happen to include an absurdly cheap Bargain Rating of 95% at FanDuel. He’s a lock in cash given the value.

Weather Watch

I realize it’s been a brutal week for all those coming over from NBA, but just know that April, although hectic, typically doesn’t see this many postponements (especially in the first week). Whatever the case, Yankees-Tigers has a 71% percent chance of rain this afternoon.

Something I Like Or Don’t Like

The Braves vs. RHP

Although his value seems achievable only at DraftKings where he includes a discount of $500, Wainwright remains an option against an Atlanta for the very reason Carlos Martinez was a strong play: their league-low .107 ISO vs. RHP last season. Wainwright’s SO/9, of course, is much lower than Martinez’s, but it’s a plus that the Braves are projected to score the third-fewest runs in this slate.