Let’s get to it.
Pitchers
Nathan Eovaldi, NYY
Only the Cubs accumulated a higher strikeout percentage against righties than the Astros last season. It also bodes well for Eovaldi that Houston’s wOBA is the lowest in today’s slate. His average batted-ball distance of 193 (best among available pitchers) over the last year makes him a viable option in cash and tournaments alike.
Danny Salazar, CLE
Slated with the highest strikeouts per nine and fewest projected Opponent Runs today, Salazar is arguably the top cash option in this slate. He has also been gifted Vic Carapazza behind the plate, whose presence correlates to a +1.5 Plus/Minus bump for pitchers, per our Player Models tool.
Pitchers to Exploit
Derek Holland, TEX
Holland’s projected Opponent Runs total of 4.2 may not seem like much, but it’s actually the fourth-highest of this slate. He has also received only 18 percent of moneyline bets so far. Given Mike Trout’s and Albert Pujols’ slugging percentages of .581 and .459 against lefties, the duo (projected to hit third and fourth in Los Angeles’ lineup) can easily be stacked in tournaments.
Rubby De La Rosa, ARI
Projected to allow the most Opponent Runs today, De La Rosa has allowed 2.06 home runs per nine to left-handed batters. If the last lineup Chicago used against right-handed pitching holds true, that means De La Rosa will face a murderers row of Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant (doesn’t bat left, but has an ISO Difference of .037), and Kyle Schwarber. Good luck.
Catcher
Kyle Schwarber, CHC
As mentioned above, the Cubs are projected to score the most runs tonight. Although he typically sits against lefties, Schwarber has a wOBA Difference of .179 (highest among catchers) when facing righties.
1B
Ryan Howard, PHI
Although it was announced that he’s officially settled into a platoon role (taking him out of the lineup when the Phillies oppose lefties), note Howard’s wOBA and ISO Difference of .174/.131. Only $2,200 at FanDuel, he’s a terrific (and valuable) tournament option in this slate.
Anthony Rizzo, CHC
Projected to hit third in arguably the strongest cash stack of the day, Rizzo offers the best of both worlds. Not only does his strikeouts per at-bat put him in the top five, but his stolen bases per game (.106) is in the top two at the position.
2B
Jonathan Schoop, BAL
Considered more of a platoon player, Schoop has typically shined against right-handed pitching (as shown by his beneficial wOBA and ISO Difference of .130/.189). Although projected to hit eighth for the Orioles, Schoop has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent at FanDuel, which seems all too good to pass on.
3B
Adrian Beltre, TEX
As pointed out just yesterday, Beltre has a slugging percentage of .545 against left-handed pitching. With the highest Park Factor percentage today, he’s considered a catalyst among third basemen in cash lineups.
SS
Freddy Galvis, PHI
Projected to hit second for the Phillies, Galvis — a switch hitter expected to bat left — will oppose the Reds’ top prospect (categorized as a flamethrower) with the wind blowing out to left field at 18 mph. His ISO Difference of .082 (highest among shortstops) is the cherry on the cake.
OF
Adam Duvall, PHI
Seeing as he was scratched yesterday, we’ll use the exact same reasoning for Duvall in case he plays. His average batted-ball distance of 230 feet in the past 12 months is as good as Jose Bautista’s. With a 90 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel, Duvall has an ISO differential of .236 that can easily be exploited (if he plays).
Jason Heyward, CHC
Another cog in the beloved Cubs stack, Heyward has an ISO Diff of .092.
Mike Trout, LAA
Already slated with a standout slugging percentage of .581 against lefties, Trout has a strong wOBA of .424, which is the highest among outfielders in today’s slate.
Weather Watch
Only Astros-Yankees (77 percent chance of precipitation) has above-average odds of getting rained out today.
Something I Like Or Don’t Like
Thin Thursday
As the inaugural Thin Thursday of the 2016 season, this is just a reminder that, much like NBA, there’s an even greater reason to approach tournaments with a contrarian style of thought on this day of the week. Now, this Thin Thursday is really just a teaser (as nine games don’t count as such), but it’s as good of a night as any to practice said method given the split slates.
Good luck!
