The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a 15-game slate starting at 3:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Two pitchers on Sunday’s slate own a salary of at least $10,000 on FanDuel:
- Carlos Carrasco (R) $11,000, CLE @ KC
- Noah Syndergaard (R) $10,200, NYM vs. MIA
Carrasco is the priciest option on Sunday’s slate but doesn’t offer too much intrigue for daily fantasy purposes. The Indians have already secured their playoff position, which makes it unlikely that they’ll push him too far in the regular-season finale. Corey Kluber went just five innings and threw 80 pitches Saturday, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Carrasco get the same treatment. He’s expected to square off with Gerrit Cole in game 2 of the ALDS next Saturday.
Syndergaard has been a bit of a disappointment in 2018 by his lofty standards, pitching to a 3.22 ERA and career-low 9.23 K/9.
That said, he’ll have a chance to end his season on a high-note vs. the Miami Marlins. Their projected lineup has struggled to a .272 wOBA and 27.4% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months, and they’re implied for a slate-low 2.8 runs. Syndergaard is also a massive -233 favorite, and pitchers with comparable Vegas data have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.33 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
He combines his excellent Vegas data with solid recent Statcast form. He’s limited his past two opponents to a hard-hit rate of just 19%, so the Marlins don’t figure to do much damage when they manage to put the ball in play. Add it all up, and he leads all pitchers with 10 Pro Trends on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Values
Walker Buehler was originally scheduled to take the hill for the Dodgers, but they will hold him back in anticipation of a one-game playoff for either a division tiebreaker or the NL wild card. Rich Hill will get the ball instead in an extremely important start vs. the San Francisco Giants.
It’s an excellent spot for the Hill, as the Giants have been one of the worst offensive teams all season. Their projected lineup has been particularly ineffective against left-handed pitchers, posting a .242 wOBA and 27.6% strikeout rate over the past 12 months. As a result, Hill owns strong marks in opponent implied team total (2.9 runs), moneyline odds (-235), and K Prediction (7.8).
He was also phenomenal from a Statcast perspective in his most recent start, resulting in a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -30 feet. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data, K Predictions, and distance differentials have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.44 on DraftKings. He should be one of the most popular options of the day across the industry.
2018 has been a bit of a lost season for Robbie Ray. He’s lost a bunch of time due to injury and has limped to a 4.27 FIP when he’s been healthy enough to pitch. His two big weaknesses have been increases in his walk rate and HR/FB rate; he’s posted a career-worst mark in both categories this season.
That said, Ray has still displayed elite strikeout production, evidenced by a K/9 of 11.81. He’s in a great spot to rack up a bunch of strikeouts vs. the San Diego Padres, whose projected lineup has posted a 27.6% strikeout rate against left-handers over the past 12 months. His resulting K Prediction of 8.3 ranks first on today’s slate.
Still, Ray seems better suited for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) than cash games. Batters have hit him hard recently when they’ve managed to make contact, resulting in an average exit velocity of 96 miles per hour and a hard-hit rate of 52%.
After Hill and Ray, the value options Sunday are pretty thin. If you’re looking for a cheaper option on DraftKings, Erick Fedde could be worth consideration. He’s pitching in Coors Field — which is obviously not ideal — but has lots of strikeout upside at just $5,400. The Rockies’ projected lineup has struck out in 27.1% of at bats against right-handers over the past 12 months, and Fedde has averaged a respectable K/9 of 8.35 over the same time frame. The result is a K Prediction of 7.1, and pitchers with comparable salaries and K Predictions have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.64. He should carry virtually no ownership as well, which is a big plus for GPPs.
Fastballs
Jack Flaherty: The Cardinals were eliminated from playoff contention Saturday, so they can comfortably use Flaherty today with no repercussions. He has a difficult matchup vs. the Cubs, who are still fighting for the NL Central crown, but owns a 3.16 ERA and 10.86 K/9 in 2018. He’s more talented than his current price tag indicates, particularly on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 87%.
Charlie Morton: He’ll likely serve as the Astros fourth starter or a reliever during the playoffs, so the Astros could push him a little harder than they did with Dallas Keuchel on Saturday. He has a nice matchup with the Baltimore Orioles, and his $7,900 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Sam Gaviglio: He’s not in a particularly great spot against the Tampa Bay Rays but enters Sunday’s contest in great recent form. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 188 feet, exit velocity of 87 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of 22%, all three of which represent significant decreases when compared to his 12-month averages.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stats into DFS lineups. Sunday’s top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Seattle Mariners:
- 1. Mitch Haniger (R)
- 2. Jean Segura (R)
- 4. Nelson Cruz (R)
- 6. Kyle Seager (L)
- 8. Mike Zunino (R)
Total Salary: $20,000
We’re still waiting on a lot of Vegas info for Sunday, but the Mariners’ implied team total of 4.9 currently ranks second. They have a nice matchup vs. Rangers right-hander Yovani Gallardo, who has pitched to a disastrous 6.40 ERA in 2018. His strikeout numbers have also dipped over the second half of the season, averaging a K/9 of just 5.28.
The Mariners should be able to put a lot of balls in play, and one batter who seems capable of taking advantage is Zunino. He’s posted an average distance of 268 feet over his past 10 games, which represents an increase of +51 feet when compared to his 12-month average.
The Mariners also own the top four-man FanDuel stack, so let’s focus on the Rockies, instead:
- 1. Charlie Blackmon (L)
- 3. David Dahl (L)
- 4. Nolan Arenado (R)
- 5. Trevor Story (R)
The Rockies still have a lot to play for on the final day of the regular season, which will likely make them a popular target at Coors Field. This is another game with no total posted, but it will likely get the highest of the day.
They’re taking on the aforementioned Fedde, who has pitched to a 5.24 ERA in 2018. The Rockies have been excellent against right-handers at Coors, owning a .351 wOBA and .203 ISO.
Dahl in particular looks like an excellent target on FanDuel. His $3,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%, and he’s destroyed right-handers to the tune of a .393 wOBA and .289 ISO over the past 12 months. He also enters Sunday’s contest in solid recent form after posting a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +11 feet.
Other Batters
Matt Carpenter is on the wrong side of his batting splits vs. Cubs left-hander Mike Montgomery, but Carpenter on the wrong side if his splits is still pretty darn good: He’s averaged a .353 wOBA and .231 ISO against southpaws over the past 12 months. He’s been priced down to $4,500 on DraftKings, representing a decrease of -$900 over the past month, so this could be a prime buy-low opportunity.
Amed Rosario has shown some signs of improvement over the second half of the season, posting a .271 batting average while swiping 18 bases. He’s expected to occupy the leadoff spot in the lineup for the Mets and has a positive matchup vs. Marlins right-hander Sandy Alcantara. Alcantara has pitched to a 1.57 WHIP over the past 12 months and a 50% hard-hit rate over his past two starts.
Kiké Hernandez looks like one of the best values of the day on FanDuel, where his $2,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s currently slotted in as the Dodgers’ projected leadoff hitter and will be on the positive side of his batting splits against Giants left-hander Andrew Suarez. He’s posted a .333 wOBA and .181 ISO against southpaws over the past 12 months, and his recent 50% hard-hit rate suggests he’s in good form, as well.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Noah Syndergaard
Photo credit: Gregory Fisher-USA Today Sports
