The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a split slate: There’s a three-game early slate starting at 12:10 p.m. ET and a 10-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Three of today’s pitchers stand out above the rest on DraftKings:
- Jack Flaherty (R) $11,400, STL @ ATL
- Walker Buehler (R) $11,300, LAD vs. COL
- Carlos Carrasco (R) $11,100, CLE vs. CWS
Flaherty is the most-expensive pitcher on DraftKings, but that seems more like a byproduct of pitching on the small early slate than anything else. He’s taking on the Atlanta Braves, whose projected lineup has posted a .316 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. His resulting Vegas data is pretty mediocre given his salary: 4.2 opponent implied team total and -110 moneyline odds.
One factor Flaherty does have working for him is his strikeout upside. He’s averaged a strong K/9 of 10.76 over the past 12 months, and the Braves’ projected lineup owns a 23.1% strikeout rate against right-handers over the same time frame. His K Prediction of 8.1 is the top mark on the early slate by more than two full strikeouts. A price tag of $11,400 is definitely steep – it represents a salary increase of $5,400 since the start of the season – but he undoubtedly has the highest ceiling of the early pitchers.
Buehler is coming off an absolute gem in his last outing, shutting out the Cardinals over eight innings while racking up nine strikeouts. Strong performances are nothing new to Buehler: He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.39 over his past 10 starts on DraftKings, and his Consistency Rating of 75% over the past year is the top mark among today’s pitchers.
He appears to be in a nice spot today vs. the Colorado Rockies. His opponent implied team total of 3.1 runs is tied for the best mark on the slate, while his moneyline odds of -204 rank second. The Rockies have been dismal vs. right-handed pitchers when playing away from Coors Field, owning a wOBA of just .286. They also have the fourth-highest strikeout rate in that situation, and Buehler’s resulting K Prediction of 7.0 ranks second on the main slate.
If there is a concern with Beuhler, it’s his recent Statcast data. He’s allowed his past two opponents to average a hard-hit rate of 45%, which represents an increase of +10 percentage points compared to his 12-month average.
Carrasco is the cheapest pitcher in the stud tier but is undoubtedly the top option on today’s slate. He’s taking on the Chicago White Sox, whose projected lineup has struggled to a .302 wOBA and 28.8% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. Given the matchup, it’s not surprisingly he leads all pitchers in three key categories: opponent implied team total (3.1 runs), moneyline odds (-290), and K Prediction (8.7). Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in all three categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.15 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool). He’s also outperformed his 12-month marks in average distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate over his past two starts, so he appears to check every box heading into today’s matchup.
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Values
Chris Archer has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past three starts on DraftKings, and he’ll have a chance to make it four in a row today vs. the Kansas City Royals. The Royals have been one of the worst teams in baseball this season, and their projected lineup owns a .291 wOBA and 28.5% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. Their implied team total of 3.2 runs is the third-lowest mark on today’s slate, and Archer is also a massive -215 favorite.
That said, his recent Statcast data is pretty terrifying. He’s allowed his past two opponents to compile an average distance of 237 feet, exit velocity of 93 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of 41%, all three of which represent increases compared to his 12-month averages.
The Giants have been historically bad offensively over the past few weeks, and Robbie Erlin gets the honor of facing them on today’s slate. They’ve been especially putrid against left-handed pitchers, owning a .202 wOBA and 35.1% strikeout rate since August 26. Unsurprisingly, they’re implied for just 3.5 runs on today’s slate. Erlin is priced at just $4,300, which makes him a really intriguing option.
Fastballs
Luis Severino: He’s been an unmitigated disaster over his past 10 starts, posting an average Plus/Minus of -8.33 on DraftKings. He has a difficult matchup today vs. the Red Sox, who have posted a .342 wOBA vs. right-handers over the past 12 months, but he’s too talented to struggle like this forever. He’s seen a salary decrease of $1,400 over the past month, so he’ll provide some extra value when he does break out of his slump.
Robbie Ray: He has ridiculous upside given his K/9 of 11.58 over the past 12 months, and he’s also posted a distance differential of -15 feet over his past three starts. That said, his difficult matchup vs. the Chicago Cubs makes him nothing more than a dart for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Yohander Mendez: No one stands out outside of Flaherty on the early slate, which could make Mendez an intriguing option. He’s allowed his past two opponents to post an average distance of 198 feet, exit velocity of 84 mph, and hard-hit rate of just 14%; all three marks represent significant decreases compared to his 12-month averages.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
- 1. Ronald Acuna (R)
- 2. Ozzie Albies (S)
- 3. Freddie Freeman (L)
- 4. Nick Markakis (L)
- 6. Ender Inciarte (L)
Total Salary: $22,000
Ownership on a three-game slate is extremely important, so stacking the Braves could make a lot of sense. Flaherty figures to be the highest-owned pitcher by a significant margin, so, in turn, the Braves will likely be one of the lowest-owned stacks.
The stack is headlined by Acuna and Freeman, who have emerged as two of the best hitters in the National League, but don’t sleep on Inciarte. He’s posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +22 feet and hard-hit differential of +14 percentage points.
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers:
- 1. Curtis Granderson (L)
- 3. Lorenzo Cain (R) – questionable
- 4. Travis Shaw (L) — questionable
- 5. Jesus Aguilar (R)
Total Salary: $15,200
The Brewers disappointed on yesterday’s slate but are in a nice spot to rebound today. They’re implied for 5.1 runs vs. Reds right-hander Matt Harvey, who continues to struggle in 2018. He’s been very vulnerable to the long ball over the second half of the season, posting a HR/9 of 1.82, and he’s allowed batters to compile a .343 wOBA. He has pitched well over his past two starts, allowing just two earned runs over 12 innings, but his Statcast data paints a different picture: His 237-foot average distance is tied for the worst mark on the slate.
Make sure to monitor the status of Cain and Shaw. Both players left yesterday’s contest early, but they have a lot of incentive to suit up with the Brewers in a tight playoff race.
Other Batters
Chris Taylor went yard yesterday, which continues his run of excellent recent Statcast data. He’s posted an average distance of 258 feet, which represents an increase of +32 feet compared to his 12-month average. He’ll be on the positive side of his batting splits again vs. Rockies left-hander Tyler Anderson.
The Yankees could be an intriguing stack target on today’s slate. They’re essentially back at full strength after Aaron Judge returned to the starting lineup yesterday, and they’re taking on a pitcher they’ve historically terrorized in David Price. One Yankee in particular who stands out is the newest one: Andrew McCutchen. He’s smoked the baseball over his past 12 games, posting an average distance of 272 feet, exit velocity of 97 mph, and hard-hit rate of 48%.
If you’re looking for a cheap hitter to fill out your lineup on DraftKings, consider Nick Martini. He’s expected to bat leadoff for the A’s vs. Angels right-hander Felix Pena, and Martini has posted a solid .353 wOBA vs. righties through his first 46 games at the MLB level. He’s also made excellent contact of late, owning an average exit velocity of 98 mph and hard-hit rate of 50% over his past six contests.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Carlos Carrasco
Photo credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
