The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a three-game early slate starting at 2:10 p.m. ET and a nine-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slates are light on top-end pitchers: Only three own a salary above $9,000 on DraftKings and none own a salary above $9,700:
- Freddy Peralta (R) $9,700, MIL @ CIN
- Dereck Rodriguez (R) $9,500, SF vs. ARI
- Sean Newcomb (L) $9,200, ATL vs. TB
Peralta has been an excellent strikeout pitcher over the past 12 months, owning a slate-high K/9 of 11.32. He leads all pitchers with a K Prediction of 7.5, even in a subpar matchup against the Cincinnati Reds. Their projected lineup has posted a strikeout rate of just 22.4% against right-handers over the past 12 months.
Unfortunately, Peralta doesn’t have great Vegas data in this matchup. His opponent implied team total of 4.2 runs is merely 10th on the day, and he’s a moneyline favorite of just -142. Peralta’s recent Statcast data is also concerning, particularly his hard-hit rate of 48%. He seems more suited for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) than cash games.
Rodriguez has put together an impressive rookie campaign for the Giants, pitching to a 2.30 ERA through his first 86.0 innings. Unfortunately, there’s reason to believe that he’s due for regression moving forward. He’s gotten extremely lucky with his home run rate, with just 4.9% of fly balls going over the fence, which is a big reason why his xFIP of 4.07 is nearly two full runs higher than his traditional ERA. He’s been a mediocre strikeout pitcher, posting a K/9 of just 7.22, so any regression with his batted-ball numbers could be disastrous for his fantasy stock.
He’s in an interesting spot today vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks. They’ve posted a splits-adjusted strikeout rate of 27.6% over the past 12 months, giving him more strikeout upside than usual, but they’ve also posted a wOBA of .312 against right-handed pitchers over the same time frame. The result is an opponent implied team total of 3.9 runs, and he’s also a +108 underdog. One thing working in Rodriguez’s favor is that this game is taking place is San Francisco, resulting in a Park Factor of 93.
Newcomb might be the safest option in the stud tier. He has an excellent matchup vs. the Tampa Bay Rays, whose projected lineup has struggled to a .272 wOBA and 24.1% strikeout rate against southpaws over the past 12 months. He combines the opponent implied team total of Rodriguez (3.9) with the moneyline odds of Peralta (-141).
Newcomb also enters the contest in the best recent form. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of just 184 feet, which represents a differential of -17 feet compared to his 12-month average.
>> Sign up for The Action Network’s daily newsletter to get the smartest conversation delivered into your inbox each morning.
Fastballs
CC Sabathia looks like the top option on the slate, and given that it’s not 2007, that goes to show how poor today’s pitching options are. He’s a massive -247 favorite vs. the Chicago White Sox, and his opponent implied team total of 3.7 runs is tied for the second-lowest mark. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data have averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.19 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
Sabathia has also appeared to find the fountain of youth from a strikeout perspective recently. He’s tallied 27 strikeouts over his last 17.2 innings pitched, including 12 in his most recent outing vs. the White Sox. He combines that with excellent Statcast data from his last start, limiting the Orioles to an average distance of 176 feet, exit velocity of 84 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of just 20%.
The best opponent implied team total of the day belongs to Miles Mikolas, who has pitched to a 2.94 ERA this season. He’s not a particularly good strikeout pitcher, averaging a K/9 of just 6.22, which is a big part of the reason why he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +0.77 this season on DraftKings. That said, his lack of strikeout upside is probably less important today than on most slates: Only two pitchers have a K Prediction above 6.5. Mikolas has also seen a price decrease of $1,300 over the past month on DraftKings, so this could be a good time to buy low on him.
The pitching options are very thin on the early slate, but Michael Fulmer has appeal vs. the Kansas City Royals. Their projected lineup has posted a .305 wOBA and 26.4% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. His Vegas data isn’t particularly impressive – he has an opponent implied team total of 4.1 runs and is a -101 underdog – but his Consistency Rating of 70% is second only to Rodriguez’s over the past year.
Fastballs
Zack Godley: He has one of the best matchups of the day vs. the San Francisco Giants, whose projected lineup has posted a .289 wOBA and 24.7% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. He owns a K Prediction of 7.2 and a slate-high Park Factor of 94.
Jason Vargas: He’s been nothing short of a disaster this season but is coming off one of his best starts of the season. He’s posted a distance differential of -17 feet over his past three starts, and the Cubs projected lineup has struggled to a .294 wOBA against left-handers over the past 12 months.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Kansas City Royals:
- 1. Whit Merrifield (R)
- 2. Alex Gordon (L)
- 3. Salvador Perez (R)
- 4. Lucas Duda (L)
- 5. Jorge Bonifacio (R)
Total Salary: $20,100
Ownership should be pretty condensed with just six teams in action on the early slate, but the Royals will likely be one of the lowest-owned stacks. They’re collectively in excellent recent form, with only Bonifacio owning a negative distance differential over the past 15 days among the stacked batters. Perez in particular has smoked the baseball recently, positing an average distance of 254 feet, exit velocity of 96 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of 52%.
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
- 1. Brian Dozier (R)
- 2. Justin Turner (R)
- 4. Matt Kemp (R)
- 6. Enrique Hernandez (R)
Total Salary: $13,200
The Dodgers are implied for 5.9 runs on the main slate, and their Team Value Rating of 86 on FanDuel suggests they’re one of the best values on the slate as well. They’re taking on Rangers left-hander Mike Minor, which puts all four of the stacked batters on the positive side of their batting splits. Turner leads the team with a .455 wOBA and .272 ISO against southpaws over the past 12 months, and Dozier and Kemp have also posted a wOBA of at least .351 and ISO of at least .193 over the same time frame.
Dozier combines his strong numbers vs. left-handers with some excellent Statcast data from his past 11 games. His average batted-ball distance of 253 feet represents an increase of +40 feet compared to his 12-month average, and he’s posted a 43% hard-hit rate as well.
Other Batters
The Yankees lineup is in a bit of disarray at the moment, with Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Didi Gregorius all on the disabled list. As a result, Neil Walker is expect to occupy the fifth spot in the lineup at just $3,600 on DraftKings for a team with an implied team total of 6.0 runs. Walker is in solid recent form, owning a distance differential of +12 feet over his past 13 games.
Wilson Ramos is expected to return to the Phillies lineup after serving as a pinch hitter yesterday and will be on the positive side of his batting splits against Gio Gonzalez. He’s posted a .386 wOBA and .239 ISO against southpaws over the past 12 months, and he’s also in excellent recent form, owning a distance differential of +39 feet and hard-hit differential of +13 percentage points over the past 15 days.
The Indians’ implied team total of 5.5 runs ranks third on the main slate, but the two batters with the highest ceiling projections are Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor. Both batters are in poor recent form, and this game does have a 24% chance of precipitation, so this might be an interesting time to buy low on them in GPPs.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: CC Sabathia
Photo credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports
