The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a split slate: There’s a four-game early slate starting at 2:08 pm ET and an 11-game main slate starting at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate is light on big name starters, with only three pitchers owning price tags of at least $11,100 on DraftKings:
Luis Severino is coming off a brutal outing against the Minnesota Twins, but he’s still managed to post a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his last 10 starts on DraftKings:
He has the top Vegas data on today’s slate, leading all pitchers with an opponent implied team total of 3.2 runs and moneyline odds of -260. Pitchers with comparable moneyline odds have historically been excellent values on DraftKings (per the Trends tool):
His matchup against the Rays should be a good one for Severino in terms of strikeout upside. They have the third-highest strikeout rate this season against right-handed pitchers at 24.8 percent, and Severino’s resulting K Prediction of 7.7 ranks fourth among today’s starters.
Despite his relatively unimpressive results in his last start, Severino has solid recent Statcast numbers. He’s posted negative 15-day/12-month differentials in distance, exit velocity, and hard hit rate, which suggests he was likely a bit unlucky not to post better numbers in his last outing. He leads all pitchers with seven Pro Trends and will likely be the highest-owned pitcher on the slate.
Rich Hill has the top matchup on the slate against the San Diego Padres. They have a bottom-three wOBA this season against left-handed pitchers, and their projected lineup has a bottom-three splits-adjusted strikeout rate as well. Hill’s K Prediction of 8.5 is tied for the top mark among today’s pitchers.
We’re still waiting for some Vegas data to come in, but Hill figures to have one of the lower opponent implied team totals and top moneyline odds on today’s slate. Teammate Alex Wood had -240 odds on Tuesday’s slate, and Hill will likely have similar marks today.
Values
Garrett Richards is set to make his fifth start since coming off the disabled list, and he’s had impressive results through his first four outings; he’s posted a 1.86 ERA while tallying 20 strikeouts in 19.1 innings pitched. That said, he hasn’t been allowed to pitch deep into any games yet. He did throw a season-high 85 pitches in his last outing, so it’s possible he increases that total enough to warrant fantasy consideration on today’s slate.
He has a strong matchup today against the Chicago White Sox, who have the fourth-lowest wOBA this season against right-handed pitchers. This is another game with no line currently, but Richards projects to be a strong favorite against a pedestrian offense. His K Prediction of 7.8 is third on today’s slate, and at $7,900 he represents a strong discount from the top tier pitchers. Pitchers with comparable K Predictions and salaries have historically returned value on DraftKings:
In addition to being cheap, his 56 percent Bargain Rating makes him one of the best values on DraftKings as well. His average ownership has jumped from 0.8 percent to 8.8 percent over his last three starts, and Pro subscribers can review his ownership using the DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Tanner Roark has been a consistent producer recently, exceeding value in six straight contests on DraftKings:
He has a solid matchup today against the Philadelphia Phillies, whose implied team total of 4.0 runs is one of the lower marks on the slate. The Nationals’ implied team total of 5.1 runs results in -163 moneyline odds for Roark, and his K Prediction of 7.1 ranks fifth. He’s also posted a distance differential of -3 feet over his last two starts, and his average of 104 pitches per start over that time frame is the top mark among today’s pitchers. He looks like one of the safer SP2 options for cash games on DraftKings.
Fastballs
Justin Verlander: He’s arguably been the best pitcher in baseball recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +10.97 on DraftKings over his last 10 starts. His price has increased by a whopping $4,400 over the past month, however, and pitchers with comparable price increases have a historical Plus/Minus of -2.57 on DraftKings. He is the largest favorite on the early slate with -185 odds, but he carries increased risk at his current price tag. Rostering Verlander will also make it nearly impossible to stack the Rockies bats at Coors Field, so DFS players will likely have to choose between the two.
Danny Salazar: He hasn’t thrown a lot of pitches since returning to the starting lineup, but he did throw 54 in his most recent outing. If he can increase that number to the 75 range today, he offers upside for GPPs given his strikeout ability. His 12-month K/9 of 13.04 is one of the top marks in baseball, and his K Prediction of 8.5 is the top mark on the slate. At just $6,400 on DraftKings, he also possesses the top Bargain Rating on the slate at 92 percent.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
Per the Vegas Dashboard, the Rockies lead the slate with an implied team total of 6.7 runs. They’re set to face Marlins left-hander Adam Conley, who has dreadful past-year marks in both WHIP (1.55) and HR/9 (1.68). He’s also allowed an average distance of 236 feet over his last two starts, which represents a differential of +20 feet compared to his 12-month average.
Nolan Arenado has absolutely destroyed left-handers over the past 12 months, owning a .531 wOBA and .414 ISO. DJ LeMahieu has also hit lefties well, owning a .414 wOBA, and he has a distance differential of +19 feet over his last 14 games. Trevor Story is expected to bat cleanup, and he leads the team with an average distance of 247 feet over his last 14 games.
On a small four-game slate, those batters should all be quite popular: Rockies batters in the top-five of the order have a historical ownership above 15 percent given a comparable implied team total. Including projected No. 7 hitter Mark Reynolds could be a way of diversifying Rockies stacks, and his Bargain Rating of 81 percent suggests he’s currently underpriced on DraftKings. You can review the ownership dynamics of a particular stack using the new DFS Contests Dashboard.
FantasyDraft allows you to roster up to six batters from the same team, and the top six-man stack on the main slate belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers:
The Brewers are implied for 5.4 runs against Reds right-hander Homer Bailey, who’s in poor recent form with a distance differential of +16 feet over his past two starts. The Brewers, on the other hand, are collectively hitting the ball well of late, with all six of the stacked batters owning positive hard hit differentials and four of the six owning distance differentials of at least +23 feet:
All six batters are also on the positive side of their batting splits facing a right-handed pitcher, and each owns a Bargain Rating of at least 81 percent on FantasyDraft. The Brewers will likely be popular given that their implied team total is tied for the second-highest mark on the slate, but avoiding No. 3 hitter Ryan Braun will likely increase the chances of a Brewers stack being unique.
Batters
Josh Reddick once again leads the slate with 11 Pro Trends. After not being in the lineup Tuesday against a left-handed pitcher, he should be back in his regular spot today against Rangers right-hander Nick Martinez. Many of Reddick’s Pro Trends stem from his excellent recent batted ball profile, particularly his distance of 250 feet. That represents a differential of +28 feet compared to his 12-month average.
Enrique Hernandez has been absolutely terrible recently, owning an average Plus/Minus of -5.36 over his last 10 games on FanDuel. His underlying Statcast data has actually been solid over that time frame, however, resulting in a Recent Batted Ball Luck score of +82. He’s set to face Padres left-hander Clayton Richard, which should help his fantasy stock: He has a .377 wOBA and .290 ISO against southpaws over the past 12 months. Oh yeah, and he’s just $2,300.
Finally, Aaron Judge has been blasting home runs at a breakneck pace recently, so his dominant recent Statcast data isn’t all that surprising. He’s posted a 270-foot average distance, 96 MPH exit velocity, and 51 percent hard hit rate. The Yankees are implied for 5.4 runs on the main slate, and Judge should be a popular option as a result.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our MLB news blurbs:
