The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
There are 15 games today starting at 1:08 pm ET in the all day slates. The 11-game main slate begins at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate features a clear top tier of stud pitchers: Only three pitchers are priced above $9,800 on DraftKings, and each has a salary of at least $12,000:
Chris Sale has been one of the most dominant pitchers all season, but he seems to be in a bit of a downswing at the moment. He’s coming off a rough start against a Rays team he thoroughly dominated in five previous outings this season, and he’s failed to meet salary-based expectations on DraftKings in five of his last 10 starts:
Still, his data in today’s matchup against the Orioles is impressive. His opponent implied team total of 3.5 is tied for the second-lowest mark on today’s slate, and his moneyline odds of -200 ranks third. He also has the second-largest K Prediction at 9.5, and pitchers with comparable K Predictions and moneyline odds have historically been strong options (per the Trends tool):
Despite his unimpressive results, Sale’s Statcast data from his last two starts has been solid. He’s allowed an average distance of 201 feet, exit velocity of 87 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 28 percent, all of which represent decreases compared to his 12-month averages.
Robbie Ray has been insanely good recently, posting a ridiculous average Plus/Minus of +28.30 on FanDuel over his last four starts. He’s recorded at least 10 strikeouts in each of those contests while allowing just four total earned runs, and he gets the best possible matchup for a pitcher today against the San Diego Padres. They’ve posted the third-worst K rate this season against left-handed pitchers at 25.1 percent, and Ray’s resulting K Prediction of 9.8 is the top mark on the slate.
Additionally, Ray should benefit from facing the Padres on the road. Petco Park has historically been a pitcher-friendly stadium, and Ray’s Park Factor of 88 is one of the top marks on the slate. The one downside of playing in San Diego could be the offensive support he gets from his teammates: The Diamondbacks’ average of 4.24 runs per game on the road is the ninth-lowest mark in the league, and their implied team total of 4.1 runs results in moneyline odds of just -137 for Ray in today’s matchup.
Ray’s Statcast data from his last two starts is almost as impressive as his strikeout ability. He’s posted a distance differential of -30 feet, and pitchers with comparable recent distance differentials and K Predictions have historically been amazing on FanDuel:
It will be interesting to see if DFS players prefer the safety of Sale’s moneyline odds or the potential upside of Ray’s strikeout ability and recent Statcast data. Their ownership dynamic will likely be a key factor on today’s slate and can be reviewed using the DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Values
In addition to the excellent stud options, there are a couple strong value options on today’s slate. Alex Wood leads the slate with an opponent implied team total of 3.4 runs, and his moneyline odds of -230 ranks second. The Phillies’ projected lineup has a splits-adjusted 12-month K rate of 27.6 percent – the third-highest mark on the slate – and Wood has a resulting K Prediction of 8.5. Pitchers with comparable K Predictions and moneyline odds have historically exceeded value on FanDuel:
The big concern with Wood (as it has been all season) is his potential low pitch count. He’s thrown an average of just 93 pitches over his last two starts, and he’s hit the 100-pitch mark just once in 25 starts this season. Still, he’s shown big upside in limited pitches before and is coming off a 54-point FanDuel performance in his last start against a strong Nationals offense. He’s an interesting pivot from the stud pitchers in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), especially on DraftKings, where he’s more than $3,000 cheaper than Sale and Ray.
Finally, no pitcher on today’s slate has more Pro Trends than Brad Peacock. He has a whopping 10 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and pitchers with a comparable number have historically been excellent values:
He’s the largest favorite of the day with -280 moneyline odds, and his K Prediction of 8.7 ranks third. He’s also seen his salary decrease by $1,100 over the past 30 days, and his 12-month Consistency Rating of 70 percent is better than the marks for Sale, Ray, and Wood. He seems like the safer option compared to Wood in particular, and his ownership levels will likely reflect that.
Fastballs
Dinelson Lamet: He’s a strong underdog today opposing Ray, but he still offers upside in his matchup. Only two teams have provided pitchers with a higher average Plus/Minus on DraftKings when pitching at home this season, and Lamet’s K Prediction of 8.6 ranks fourth on today’s slate. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.65 on DraftKings and a Consistency Rating of 90 percent over his last 10 starts.
Luis Severino: He’s the clear top option on the early slate, leading all early pitchers in both moneyline odds (-250) and K Prediction (7.5). He’s also posted a distance differential of -15 feet over his last two starts, and pitchers with comparable odds, K Predictions, and distance differentials have a historical Plus/Minus of +5.96 on DraftKings and +10.46 on FanDuel.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Oakland Athletics:
Oakland leads the early slate with an implied team total of 5.3 runs. They’re set to face Tigers right-handed pitcher Anibal Sanchez, who has terrible past-year marks in both WHIP (1.67) and HR/9 (2.85). Oakland has scored 17 total runs in their first two games of the series against the Tigers, and four of the stacked batters are in excellent recent form:
Matt Olson has homered in five straight games and has 15 total home runs over his last 21 games; his prowess with the long ball has translated to an average Plus/Minus of +5.41 over his last 10 games. He’ll likely be a chalky option, but the 2-3-4-5-8 combination could be a unique way to stack him with some of his teammates. You can review the ownership dynamics of a particular stack using the new DFS Contests Dashboard.
FantasyDraft allows you to stack up to six batters from the same team, and the top six-man stack on the main slate belongs to the Houston Astros:
The Astros are implied for 6.1 runs, which is the top mark on the slate by a margin of 0.7 runs. The Astros seem underpriced as a group on FantasyDraft, with each of the stacked batters owning a Bargain Rating of at least 81 percent.
They’re facing White Sox right-hander James Shields, who has been bad by both traditional and advanced metrics this season. His 5.43 ERA obviously isn’t good, but his 6.11 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) suggests it should be even worse. He’s also allowed a batted ball distance of 221 feet over his last two starts, which represents an increase compared to his 12-month average. The Astros will likely be the highest-owned team on today’s slate.
Batters
Whit Merrifield is projected to bat leadoff for the Royals at just $3,300 on DraftKings, and he’s in strong recent form. He’s posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +14 feet and hard hit differential of +4 percentage points, and leadoff hitters with comparable differentials have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.06. He’s set to face Blue Jays left-hander Brett Anderson, and Merrifield has a .366 wOBA and .237 ISO against southpaws over the past 12 months.
Jayson Werth has been horrible recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -4.05 on DraftKings over his last 10 games, but he’s in an intriguing spot today against the Braves. The Nats are currently implied for 5.3 runs, and Werth is second on the slate with 10 individual Pro Trends. Additionally, he has a recent Batted Ball Luck score of +88 thanks to his dreadful recent fantasy production, and batters with a comparable number of Pro Trends and a similar Recent Batted Ball Luck score have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.80.
On the early slate, it’s tough to ignore what Aaron Judge has done recently on FanDuel:
His recent Statcast data supports his incredible production: a 273-foot average distance, 96 MPH exit velocity, and 44 percent hard hit rate. He’s taking on Twins right-hander Bartolo Colon, who has allowed an average distance of 240 feet over his last three starts. There might not be a matchup today between a hotter hitter and a colder pitcher.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
