The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a split slate: There’s a three-game early slate starting at 12:10 pm ET and a 12-game main slate starting at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Four pitchers on today’s slate have a salary of at least $9,000 on FanDuel:
Max Scherzer leads the group with a $10,800 price tag, and he has an excellent matchup against the Atlanta Braves. Their projected lineup has a splits-adjusted wOBA of just .294 over the past 12 months, and Scherzer’s resulting Vegas data is elite: His moneyline odds of -340 and opponent implied team total of 2.8 runs both rank first on the slate. Pitchers with comparable Vegas data have historically crushed on FanDuel (per the Trends tool):
In addition to his Vegas data, Scherzer offers a unique combination of strikeout ability and recent batted ball profile. His K Prediction of 8.4 ranks first among today’s pitchers, and his 181-foot average distance over his last two starts represents a differential of -32 feet compared to his 12-month average. Pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically done quite well:
Despite his high salary, he also offers a slate-high Bargain Rating of 98 percent on FanDuel, and home plate umpire Dan Bellino has historically rewarded pitchers with an additional Plus/Minus of +1.20. Under other circumstances, his recent pitch count of 89 would be concerning, but that number is a bit misleading in this case. He had an injury-shortened outing two starts ago after taking a hit off his leg, but he threw 104 pitches last time out against the Phillies. He should have no limitations today and is the clear top option on the slate.
Yu Darvish is another pitcher with a great matchup today. He’s taking on the San Francisco Giants, whose .297 wOBA against right-handed pitchers is the worst mark in the league this season. His opponent implied team total of 3.1 trails only Scherzer’s on today’s slate, and the Dodgers’ implied team total of 4.5 runs results in solid -205 moneyline odds for Darvish.
While the Giants have been a poor hitting team all season, they’ve also been one of the tougher teams in the league to strike out. Their projected lineup has a splits-adjusted strikeout rate of 23.4 percent over the past 12 months, which limits Darvish to a K Prediction of 7.2. That ranks just ninth on today’s slate.
Facing the Giants in San Francisco does provide Darvish with an additional benefit. AT&T Park has historically been one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the league, and Darvish has a slate-high Park Factor of 94 as a result. Pitchers with comparable Park Factors and moneyline odds have historically been solid values on DraftKings:
He should check in with much lower ownership than Scherzer, which Pro Subscribers can review using the DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Values
Jon Lester is second to Scherzer on the main slate in both K Prediction (8.1) and moneyline odds (-285), but at just $9,600 he’s nearly $4,000 cheaper on DraftKings. There have been only four prior instances in our database where a pitcher has had comparable odds, K Predictions, and salaries, and those four pitchers have absolutely smashed:
The Mets started the year as a strong offensive team, but they’ve lost a large portion of their opening day starters to trades or injuries. Their projected lineup for today’s matchup against Lester is pretty unimpressive, with their batters owning a .296 wOBA split and 28.3 percent strikeout rate over the past 12 months. Pairing Lester with Scherzer on DraftKings is tough but doable – it leaves an average of approximately $3,300 per batter – and you can review the duo’s collective ownership using the DFS Contests Dashboard.
Lance McCullers is making just his second start since returning from the disabled list today against the Los Angeles Angels. Including the month he spent on the DL, McCullers hasn’t had a good start in over two months:
For that reason, his DraftKings salary has decreased from its peak of $11,500 on July 17th all the way to $7,500, creating a potentially intriguing buy-low situation. McCullers’ 12-month K/9 of 10.15 is one of the better marks on today’s slate, and pitching in Anaheim results in a high Park Factor of 83.
That being said, there are a few big concerns here. The first is his recent pitch count: He threw just 76 pitches in his first start off the DL, and it’s doubtful that he’ll see that total increase drastically in his second. The other big concern is his recent Statcast data. He allowed an average batted ball distance of 227 feet in his most recent start, which represents a differential of +43 feet compared to his 12-month average. Pitchers with comparable recent pitch counts and distance differentials have posted a dreadful Plus/Minus of -2.81, yet they’ve also posted an above-average Upside Rating of 19 percent. It’s impossible to trust McCullers as anything more than a contrarian play in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), but he has the potential to pay off in a big way at his current reduced salary.
Fastballs
Doug Fister: Fister has been nothing short of outstanding recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of +15.01 on DraftKings over his last four starts. His ownership in those starts has also been a bit surprising given how good he’s been: 2.7 percent, 0.9 percent, 4.3 percent, and 0.5 percent. He’s a large -195 favorite in today’s start against the Oakland Athletics, but his salary has risen all the way to $8,800 on DraftKings. It will be interesting to see if people hop on the bandwagon, or if his increased salary will continue to keep his ownership low.
Mike Clevinger: The Indians are playing on the early slate, and they extended their win streak to a ridiculous 20 games yesterday. Clevinger takes the hill as a massive -290 favorite and should be the most popular option among the early starters.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top-rated five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Cleveland Indians:
Per the Vegas Dashboard, the Indians lead the slate with an implied team total of 6.2 runs. They’re set to face Tigers right-hander Buck Farmer, who has an ERA of 6.32 and has allowed six home runs over seven big league starts this season. He’s pitched just once in the last 15 days, and he wasn’t exactly good in that appearance: His 224-foot average distance was worse than his 12-month average by 15 feet.
Of the stacked batters, Jose Ramirez is in the best recent form. He’s been dominant from a fantasy perspective, recording an average Plus/Minus of +7.28 over his last 10 games, and his Statcast data over that time frame is equally impressive. He’s posted distance, exit velocity, and hard hit differentials of +22 feet, +3 miles per hour, and +22 percentage points, and he also leads the slate with seven Pro Trends.
The one real downside with the Indians batters is their salaries. None of the stacked batters have a Bargain Rating greater than 23 percent, and Ramirez and Lonnie Chisenhall have Bargain Ratings of just one percent. That’s going to make stacking the Tribe and rostering Clevinger virtually impossible, so it’s possible that one of them has lower than expected ownership.
On the main slate, the top six-man FantasyDraft stack belongs to the Seattle Mariners:
The Mariners are currently implied for 5.6 runs against Rangers left-hander Martin Perez, who has dreadful past-year marks in both WHIP (1.57) and K/9 (5.61). The Mariners seem to be underpriced on FantasyDraft given their implied team total, resulting in a Bargain Rating of at least 81 percent for each of the stacked batters:
Mitch Haniger has been hitting well of late, posting 15-day/12-month distance and hard hit differentials of +16 feet and +15 percentage points, while Nelson Cruz has the most impressive 12-month wOBA and ISO splits at .404 and .262, respectively. Projected No. 6 hitter Danny Valencia has also hit lefties well historically — he has .347 wOBA and .206 ISO splits over the past 12 months — and could serve as a potential differentiator for Mariners stacks.
Batters
Carlos Gonzalez has been red hot recently, culminating in two home runs yesterday against the Diamondbacks. His Statcast data suggests the production hasn’t been a fluke: He’s posted a distance differential of +47 feet over his last 11 games. Gonzalez is taking on a left-handed pitcher today in Patrick Corbin, and the lefty-on-lefty matchup will likely make Gonzalez a contrarian option despite his recent production.
No projected starter has been as unlucky as Enrique Hernandez recently. He’s posted an awful average Plus/Minus of -3.69 over his last 10 games, but his Statcast data over that time frame is impressive: 237-foot batted ball distance, 94 MPH exit velocity, and 45 percent hard hit rate. That results in a Recent Batted Ball Luck score of +88 for Hernandez, and batters with comparable scores have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.28. He’s set to face Giants left-hander Matt Moore, and Hernandez has crushed southpaws to the tune of a .369 wOBA and .289 ISO over the past 12 months.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
