The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday has a split slate: There’s a six-game early slate starting at 1:05 pm ET and a nine-game main slate starting at 7:07 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Wednesday’s slate features a lot of pitching talent, with five pitchers possessing salaries of at least $9,000 on FanDuel:
Stephen Strasburg is the highest-priced pitcher on both sites, and he should command a lot of ownership on the early slate. His opponent implied team total of 3.5 runs and moneyline odds of -210 are easily tops among early pitchers; no other pitcher has an opponent implied team total below 4.4 runs or moneyline odds greater than -131. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data have been great values on FanDuel (per the MLB Trends tool):
Strasburg has the best historical strikeout numbers among all of the early pitchers, owning a 12-month SO/9 of 10.70, and his K Prediction of 7.3 is tied for second. He also has solid Statcast data over his last two starts, with a 200-foot average batted ball distance, 86 mile per hour exit velocity, and 26 percent hard hit rate. All of those numbers represent decreases when compared to his 12-month averages, and Strasburg’s six Pro Trends rank first among today’s starters. No pitcher stands out as truly elite, but Strasburg offers the best combination of Vegas data, strikeout upside, and recent production.
On the main slate, the decision for those paying up at pitcher will likely come down to Dallas Keuchel and Jose Berrios. Both pitchers have excellent Vegas data, with Keuchel owning the slight edge in opponent implied team total and Berrios owning the slight edge in moneyline odds:
- Keuchel: -186 moneyline odds, 3.6 opponent implied team total
- Berrios: -220 moneyline odds, 3.8 opponent implied team total
The decision will likely come down to what you prefer in a pitcher: K Prediction or Statcast data. Keuchel is a pretty mediocre strikeout pitcher, with a SO/9 of just 7.54 over his last 12 months, and his K Prediction of 6.1 is nothing special. His Statcast data, however, is out of this world: He’s allowed a batted ball distance of just 150 feet over his last two starts, which represents a differential of -22 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Pitchers with comparable differentials and Vegas data have historically been strong values on DraftKings:
Keuchel’s Park Factor of 83 is also one of the top marks, and he’s one of only six pitchers on the main slate to average over 100 pitches over the past 15 days.
Berrios, meanwhile, has a K Prediction of 7.0 that ranks second, and pitchers with comparable K Predictions and moneyline odds have historically crushed value:
And while he’s not exactly Keuchel-esque, Berrios still has good Statcast data from his two most recent starts: 191-foot average distance, 88 mile per hour exit velocity, and 29 percent hard hit rate. His Bargain Rating of 14 percent on DraftKings isn’t great, but it’s light-years better than Keuchel’s Bargain Rating of one percent. Both pitchers are strong plays on this slate, so it might be wise to leverage our ownership projections within Models.
Values
Hyun-Jin Ryu has a tough matchup today against the Diamondbacks at Chase Field. They’re third in the league with an average of 5.54 runs per game at home, and their .333 wOBA against right-handed pitchers ranks fourth. Ryu’s resulting implied team total of 4.8 runs is one of the higher marks on the slate, and he’s barely a favorite with -107 moneyline odds.
What Ryu does have going for him is awesome recent Statcast data. He’s posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -44 feet, and pitchers with comparable differentials have historically returned value on DraftKings:
Ryu also has the fourth-best K Prediction on the main slate at 6.7, giving him a solid combination of strikeout upside and batted ball profile. His opponent implied team total makes him too risky to consider in cash games, but his likely low ownership makes him worthy of consideration in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Jose Quintana can’t be considered a value on DraftKings at $10,400, but his $8,700 FanDuel salary is reasonable and results in a Bargain Rating of 95 percent. He ranks second on the main slate in both K Prediction (7.0) and moneyline odds (-194), and pitchers with comparable Bargain Ratings, K Predictions, and odds have historically crushed on FanDuel:
His recent Statcast data is also excellent, positing 15-day/12-month distance, exit velocity, and hard hit differentials of -23 feet, -3 miles per hour, and -11 percentage points. Quintana combines many of the best qualities of both Keuchel and Berrios, and he could wind up as the best play of the trio.
Fastballs
Robbie Ray: He’s one of the top strikeout artists in baseball, and his K Prediction of 8.9 ranks first on today’s slate by a wide margin. He has made just one start since coming off the disabled list, but he still managed to strike out nine batters while throwing 94 pitches. If he can up his pitch count in this start, no one on this slate can touch the strikeout potential he offers.
Jaime Garcia: He’s cheap at only $5,700 on DraftKings, and he’s a slight favorite with -118 moneyline odds. His K Prediction of 5.4 is small, but pitchers with comparable K Predictions and odds have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.23 and Upside Rating of 15 percent. If you’re looking for a way to stack Coors Field, Garcia could be your guy.
Pro subscribers can review the ownership for all players on today’s slate using our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Notable Stacks
We’ve recently added FantasyDraft tools to our Models, and they allow you to stack up to six players from the same team. On the early slate, the top six-man FantasyDraft stack using the Bales Model belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
Per the Vegas Dashboard, the Rockies lead the slate with an implied team total of 6.3 runs. The total is a little surprising considering they’re taking on Tigers ace Justin Verlander, who’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.85 on FantasyDraft over his last 10 starts. The Rockies have collectively swung the bats well, however, with each of the stacked batters with the exception of Charlie Blackmon owning a distance differential of at least -3 feet:
Reynolds’ distance differential of +45 feet is particularly impressive, and batters at Coors with comparable differentials have a historical Plus/Minus of +4.87. Blackmon is in poor recent form, but his production at Coors this year is undeniable: He has a .513 wOBA and .405 ISO and has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.43.
On the main slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
Taking on Ray is a difficult task, but it does put the majority of the stacked batters on the positive side of their batting splits:
The only batter who doesn’t fare better against southpaws is Curtis Granderson, but he’s in terrific recent form. He’s posted a batted ball distance of 262 feet, exit velocity of 96 miles per hour, and 42 percent hard hit rate over his last 11 games, and batters with comparable Statcast data playing at Chase have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.04.
People may not load up on Ray considering his matchup against the Dodgers, but they also probably won’t consider stacking against him. This should make Dodgers stacks at least somewhat contrarian; users can review a particular stack’s ownership dynamics using the new DFS Contests Dashboard.
Batters
Brandon Moss is second on the main slate with nine Pro Trends, which has historically correlated with a Plus/Minus of +1.45 on DraftKings. He hasn’t exactly dominated recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -0.09 over his last 10 games, but that belies an excellent batted ball profile over that time frame. He has an average distance of 260 feet, exit velocity of 99 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 50 percent, and the Royals are projected for 5.2 runs on today’s slate. Projected to bat seventh in the lineup, Moss likely won’t carry significant ownership.
Brandon Nimmo is the current leadoff hitter in the Mets’ projected lineup, and he’s likely underpriced for that role at only $2,800 on FanDuel. The Mets are implied for 4.7 runs, and leadoff hitters with comparable salaries and implied team totals have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.49 on FanDuel. Nimmo has a 12-month wOBA split of .430 and ISO split of .175, and he should carry low ownership as well.
On the early slate, Stephen Vogt is priced all the way down to $2,100 on FanDuel after posting an average Plus/Minus of -0.73 over his last 10 games. His Recent Batted Ball Luck score of +85 suggests he’s been significantly unlucky over that time frame, however, and batters with comparable salaries and Recent Batted Ball Luck scores have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.20.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
