The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday has a two-game early slate starting at 3:05 pm ET and a 13-game main slate starting at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate features four pitchers with salaries of at least $10,400 on DraftKings:
The group is headlined by Corey Kluber, who is coming off a poor outing by his standards but has still managed a Plus/Minus of +11.56 on DraftKings over his last 10 starts. For today’s slate, he leads all pitchers with a K Prediction of 8.1 and opponent implied team total of 3.3 runs. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have been strong values (per the Trends tool):
While today’s data points would be great for most pitchers, they’re probably a tad lower than you’d typically expect for a pitcher like Kluber. That’s likely due to his matchup against the potent Red Sox offense, whose projected lineup has a .334 wOBA and 20.2 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months.
Kluber makes up a bit for the matchup with his solid Statcast data from his last two starts, allowing an average distance of 204 feet, exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 34 percent. He will likely be the highest-owned pitcher on the slate, which Pro Subscribers can review using the DFS Ownership Dashboard.
If there’s any pitcher who can challenge Kluber for the top spot on the slate, it’s likely to be Luis Severino. Severino is a strong -212 favorite against the Detroit Tigers, and pitchers with comparable moneyline odds have historically dominated on FanDuel:
Severino is also third on the slate with an opponent implied team total of 3.7 runs, while his K Prediction of 7.1 ranks sixth. His Statcast data from his last two starts is right in line with Kluber’s – a 201-foot average distance, 89 mile per hour exit velocity, and 27 percent hard hit rate – and he’s averaged about 10 additional pitches per start over that time frame.
Values
Luke Weaver is making just his third start of the season today against the San Diego Padres, but he’s shown impressive strikeout ability early in his major league career. His average of 11.01 strikeouts per nine innings over the past 12 months trails only Kluber’s among today’s pitchers, as does his K Prediction of 8.0. That’s a lot of strikeout upside for a pitcher with a salary of just $6,900 on DraftKings, and comparably-priced pitchers with a similar K Prediction have historically been a solid source of value:
That doesn’t factor any of his Vegas data into the equation, and that’s also very good given his elite matchup against the Padres. They’ve posted the second-worst wOBA and second-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season, and their implied team total of 3.6 runs trails only the Red Sox’s on today’s slate. Weaver is a -181 favorite, and adding comparable moneyline odds to the above trend increases the Plus/Minus dramatically:
Despite his lack of experience at the big league level, it’s hard to argue against Weaver as the top value option on the slate. Pairing him with Kluber on DraftKings will likely be the chalk move, and Pro Users can see their combined ownership once the slate starts using our new DFS Contest Dashboard.
Zack Godley may not be a household name, but that hasn’t stopped him from delivering a bunch of strong outings recently:
He’s taking on a Mets team that has been depleted by trades over the past few weeks, losing Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson, and Neil Walker; their projected starting lineup today has a 12-month wOBA of just .311 against right-handed pitchers. Godley’s resulting implied team total of 3.9 runs ranks fourth on the slate, as do his moneyline odds of -168 and K Prediction of 7.3. Pitchers with comparable K Predictions and moneyline odds have historically returned value on DraftKings:
Godley also gets a pretty significant park upgrade by facing the Mets on the road at Citi Field. Arizona starting pitchers have historically averaged more fantasy points, a higher Plus/Minus, and a better Consistency Rating on the road versus at home, despite the fact that pitchers overall tend to be significantly better in all three categories when pitching at home.
Fastballs
Rich Hill: He’s third on the slate with a K Prediction of 7.9, and pitching for the Dodgers results in strong -162 moneyline odds despite an opponent implied team total of 4.0 runs. Pitchers with comparable K Predictions and odds have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.06 on FanDuel, where Hill also has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent. His pitch count continues to be an issue – he’s averaged only 92 pitches per start over his last two contests – but he’s already shown GPP-winning upside on a limited pitch count multiple times this season.
Drew Pomeranz: He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.33 on DraftKings over his last 10 starts and has one of the top 15-day/12-month distance differentials on the slate at -21 feet. His K Prediction of 6.7 is also solid, and pitchers with comparable K Predictions and distance differentials have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.34 on DraftKings. His moneyline odds are not good due to his matchup with Kluber, but that should help reduce his ownership for tournaments.
Notable Stacks
We’ve recently added FantasyDraft tools to our suite of DFS products, and they allow users to stack up to six players from the same team. Today’s top six-man FantasyDraft stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Houston Astros:
Per the Vegas Dashboard, the Astros’ current implied team total of 5.4 runs is tied for fourth-highest mark on today’s slate. They’re set to face Washington right-hander Edwin Jackson, who has poor 12-month marks in both WHIP (1.49) and HR/9 (1.88). Facing a right-handed pitcher should be a positive for the Astros, whose current team wOBA of .358 against righties leads the league by a ridiculous margin. For the stacked batters in particular, facing a righty puts most of them on the positive side of their batting splits:
Jose Altuve has cooled off a bit after batting a ridiculous .485 during the month of July, but his Statcast data shows he’s still in good recent form. His 15-day/12-month distance differential of +17 feet suggests he’s doing damage with his bat, and his average of .201 steals per game suggests he’s also a threat to do damage with his legs. Historically, batters with comparable distance differentials, SB ability, and lineup spots have posted a Plus/Minus of +1.41 on FantasyDraft.
On DraftKings, the top five-man stack is a straight stack of the Seattle Mariners:
Seattle’s implied team total of 4.9 runs is a little more modest than some other teams today, but it’s hard to find a group of batters in better collective recent form; none of the stacked batters have a distance differential worse than -6 feet at the moment:
Nelson Cruz has averaged a ridiculous distance of 275 feet over his last 13 games, and batters with comparable distances have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.22 on DraftKings. He’s gone yard in two of his last four contests, and opposing pitcher R.A. Dickey has allowed five home runs over his last three starts.
Batters
Chris Flexen is set to take the mound for the Mets today, and to say he’s disappointed in the majors would be an understatement; he has dismal 12-month marks in WHIP (2.07), HR/9 (2.11) and K/9 (5.92). One Diamondbacks batter who should be ready to feast on him is Jake Lamb, who has a past-year wOBA of .386 and ISO of .271 against right-handed pitchers. He’s also posted distance and hard hit differentials of +9 feet and +8 percentage points over his last 12 games, and his Recent Batted Ball Luck score of +27 suggests he hasn’t exactly reaped the benefits in terms of recent fantasy points.
No projected starter has a stronger distance differential than Howie Kendrick over his last nine games. He has a mark of +55 feet, and leadoff hitters with comparable distance differentials have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.78 on DraftKings.
Despite the fact that Victor Martinez hasn’t caught a single inning this year, he remains eligible at the typically-weak catcher position on FanDuel. His recent results haven’t reflected his strong recent Statcast data, resulting in a slate-high Recent Batted Ball Luck score of +78 on FanDuel. Batters with comparable Rec BBLs have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.28, and at only $2,500, Martinez looks like a solid option for those paying down at catcher.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
