The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a split-slate: There’s a two-game early slate starting at 3:40 pm ET and a 13-game main slate starting at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are five pitchers priced at $9,000 or more on DraftKings, headlined by Stephen Strasburg at $11,600:
Strasburg has been disappointing lately, posting a negative Plus/Minus in each of his last three starts, but he still looks like today’s top pitching option. He has the highest K Prediction at 8.0, and his opponent implied total of 3.7 runs is also the best mark on the main slate. Pitchers with comparable numbers in both categories have historically returned value on DraftKings (per our Trends Tool):
His matchup against the Cubs offense seems tough, but the Cubs have been mediocre against right-handed pitching; their projected lineup has a 12-month splits-adjusted wOBA of .306 and strikeout rate of 26.5 percent. His moneyline odds of -165 are fourth in the slate, and he’s one of the few pitchers with decent Statcast data over his last two starts. His batted ball distance of 212 feet, exit velocity of 91 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 30 percent are in line with his 12-month averages, and his average pitch count of 102 is the fourth-highest mark on the slate. He looks like the safest option on a somewhat shaky day for pitching, especially on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
On the early slate, Felix Hernandez should dominate the ownership at pitcher. He leads the slate in K Prediction (6.5), opponent implied total (3.4 runs), and moneyline odds (-220). Pitchers with comparable numbers have been awesome on FanDuel:
This is only his second start since returning from injury, but he threw 96 pitches in his first outing and doesn’t appear to be on a pitch count. His matchup against the Phillies is excellent — their wOBA of .298 against right-handed pitchers is the second worst in the league this season — and home-plate umpire Ben May has rewarded pitchers with a historical Plus/Minus of +1.71 on FanDuel.
Marcus Stroman has the second-best moneyline odds of the day at -200, and that alone has value; comparable favorites have historically been good values on DraftKings:
Outside of his odds, though, there’s not much to like. His K Prediction of 5.5 is pedestrian, and his Statcast data over his last two starts is horrid. He’s posted 15-day/12-month distance, exit velocity, and hard hit differentials of +25 feet, +3 miles per hour, and +17 percentage points, and pitchers with comparable differentials, K Predictions, and salaries have been absolutely terrible on DraftKings:
Stroman rarely offers much upside due to his lack of strikeout ability — his 12-month K/9 of 8.03 is unusually low for a pitcher of Stroman’s caliber — but in this matchup he doesn’t even offer the safety that most big favorites do, given his metrics.
Values
The majority of the options in the value tier today stand out primarily on DraftKings. There are numerous intriguing pitchers in the $6,000-$7,000 range who have Bargain Ratings above 90 percent while all of the studs on the main slate have Bargain Ratings below 30. For that reason, it probably makes sense to pay up for pitcher on FanDuel and pay down on DraftKings, especially if you like to split exposure between sites.
Ivan Nova is $6,400 on DraftKings and has been a solid source of value in two of his last three starts:
There’s quite a bit to like about Nova today against the Rays. His opponent implied total of 4.1 is tied for the third-lowest mark on the day, and he has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent and a Park Factor of 88 at home in Pittsburgh. Pitchers with comparable Bargain Ratings, Park Factors, and opponent implied totals have historically returned value:
His Statcast data over the last two starts is also among the best on the slate with a batted ball distance of 200 feet, exit velocity of 91 miles per hour, and ground ball rate of 50 percent. Nova doesn’t offer much value for GPPs with a K Prediction of only 5.1, but he’s a solid cash game option.
Alex Meyer has a lot in common with Nova. His Bargain Rating of 96 percent and Park Factor of 83 are similar, as is his recent Statcast data. Where Meyer differentiates himself is his strikeout ability; at $5,900 on DraftKings, he’s second on the slate to only Yu Darvish with his 12-month K/9 of 10.71 and to Strasburg with his K Prediction of 7.5. Pitchers with comparable K Predictions, Bargain Ratings, and salaries have historically been good sources of value:
These pitchers have also had an impressive Upside Rating of 28 percent, making Meyer an ideal GPP target even in a tough matchup with the Dodgers.
Fastballs
Yu Darvish: He has a Bargain Rating of 89 percent on FanDuel, and his K Prediction of 7.1 is fourth on the slate. With +106 moneyline odds and an opponent implied team total of 4.7 runs, he should be a low-owned option with some upside.
Rick Porcello: Another pitcher in the Nova/Meyer mold, Porcello has a 93 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings and is a -175 favorite. Pitchers with comparable odds and Bargain Ratings have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.72.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack in the Bales Model belongs to the San Francisco Giants:
Per our Vegas Dashboard, the Giants are implied for just 4.4 runs against Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland, but they lead the slate with a Team Value Rating of 77. Facing the southpaw puts all the stacked batters except Kelby Tomlinson on the positive side of their splits:
Buster Posey has been hitting well of late with an average batted ball distance of 245 feet and exit velocity of 94 miles per hour over his last 13 games. Batters with comparable Statcast data have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.07. Austin Slater is questionable to play after missing the last two games, but if he does suit up he represents a good value on DraftKings; his Bargain Rating of 91 percent leads all projected starting outfielders.
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
The Diamondbacks are implied for 5.1 runs against the Cardinals, and for the most part they are cheap on FanDuel. All four of the above batters have Bargain Ratings of at least 90 percent, and batters with comparable implied team totals and Bargain Ratings have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.29. Outside of Jake Lamb, these batters all have positive 15-day/12-month distance, exit velocity, and hard hit differentials as well:
Cardinals right-hander Adam Wainwright has struggled over his last two starts — his 213-foot recent batted ball distance is 15 feet higher than his 12-month average — and if the Diamondbacks can knock him out of the game early they’ll have a chance to leverage a high Opponent Bullpen Rating of 95. With a bunch of other teams implied for higher totals, the Diamondbacks could have low ownership, which Pro Subscribers can review using our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Batters
Mike Napoli has failed to meet value in eight of his last 10 games:
But that’s not due to a lack of good contact. He’s posted 15-day/12-month distance and hard hit differentials of +34 feet and +21 percentage points, and his Recent Batted Ball Luck Score of +70 is the highest among all projected starters on today’s slate. Batters with comparable Statcast data have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.00 on DraftKings.
Cody Bellinger leads the slate with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel and has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball over his last 15 games:
His Rec BBL of +1 suggests the production isn’t a fluke. His Statcast data over the time period has been incredible with a batted ball distance of 256 feet, exit velocity of 96 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 62 percent. Batters with a comparable number of Pro Trends and recent batted ball profiles have an absurd historical Plus/Minus of +9.26 on FanDuel.
Josh Reddick has a massive 14 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and the Astros are implied for 5.9 runs against Oakland right-hander Jesse Hahn. Batters with a comparable number of Pro Trends and implied team total have a historical Plus/Minus of +4.54 and Upside Rating of 37 percent, and Hahn’s batted ball distance of 234 feet over his last two starts is one of the highest marks on the slate.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
