The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday offers a split slate: There’s a four-game early slate starting at 12:10 pm ET and an 11-game main slate starting at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are four pitchers priced at $9,200 or higher on FanDuel, headlined by Max Scherzer at $12,300:
It’s going to be tough to avoid Scherzer on the early slate with the lack of quality pitching options available, especially given how dominant he’s been over his last 1o starts:
He leads the slate with a K Prediction of 8.8, and pitching in Miami affords him a high Park Factor of 86. He’s especially appealing on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent, and pitchers with comparable Bargain Ratings, K Predictions, and Park Factors have historically provided awsome value (per our Trends Tool):
The Statcast data over his last three starts has been solid with a 209-foot batted ball distance, 89 mph exit velocity, and 27 percent hard hit rate, all of which are superior to his 12-month averages.
Scherzer is less of a slam dunk on DraftKings, where he has a massive salary of $14,100. His Vegas data is not exactly what you’d expect for a high-priced pitcher, with his opponent implied total of 3.9 runs and moneyline odds of only -149. In fact, it’s rare for a pitcher with a comparable salary also to have a similar opponent implied total:
Earlier this season Scherzer had a similar salary and opponent total against the Phillies, and he scored only 17.5 DraftKings points. Given his likely astronomical ownership rate — which Pro subscribers can review after lineup lock using our DFS Ownership Dashboard — some fade consideration for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) could be warranted despite the lack of an obvious pivot.
On the main slate, the top stud pitching option likely comes down to the site. Carlos Carrasco has a Bargain Rating of 87 percent on FanDuel, while Justin Verlander has a Bargain Rating of 84 percent on DraftKings.
In a vacuum, Carrasco seems like the stronger play. He has stronger moneyline odds at -155 and a lower opponent implied team total at 4.3 runs. Additionally, his 15-day/12-month distance differential is 10 feet better than Verlander’s. His K Prediction of 6.6 is fourth on the main slate, and home plate umpire Ryan Blakney has historically rewarded pitchers with a Plus/Minus of +1.82 on FanDuel.
Where Verlander stands out is in his matchup against the Mariners, whose projected lineup has the worst splits-adjusted K rate on the slate at 31.6 percent and the fifth-worst splits-adjusted wOBA at .295. His K Prediction of 7.1 is tied for second on the slate. Even as slight underdogs, pitchers with comparable K Predictions, Bargain Ratings, and moneyline odds have historically returned value on DraftKings:
He ownership rate will likely be modest, which increases his appeal for GPPs.
Values
One of the highest-rated pitchers in the Bales Model is James Paxton, who has a nice matchup against a projected Tigers lineup with a 28.9 percent K rate and .304 wOBA against left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. He’s currently the only pitcher on the main slate with an opponent implied total under 4.2 runs:
His K Prediction of 6.4 is only the fifth-highest mark on the slate, but combining it with his current moneyline odds (-130) and opponent team total yields a solid historical cohort on FanDuel:
Pitching in Seattle also rewards him with a Park Factor of 73 — the third-best mark on the main slate — and his Bargain Rating of 78 percent on DraftKings is second among all pitchers priced at least $7,000.
Outside of his last start at Coors Field, Jeff Samardzija has been productive recently:
His matchup today against the Braves is good; their projected lineup has a splits-adjusted K rate of 29.5 percent and wOBA of .274, which are among the worst marks on today’s slate. Unsurprisingly, Samardzija has a slate-best K Prediction of 7.5, second-best opponent implied total of 4.2 runs, and moneyline odds of -133. Pitchers with comparable numbers in the three categories have historically been solid bets on DraftKings:
However, there are two concerns with Samardzija. First, this game currently leads the slate with a 25 percent chance of precipitation, which might result in a rain delay and premature exit. Second, his recent Statcast data isn’t good. His 233-foot batted ball distance over his last two starts is 25 feet more than his 12-month average, and pitchers with comparable distance differentials have a historical Plus/Minus of -2.09 on DraftKings. His K upside makes him desirable for GPPs, but there are safer options for cash games.
Fastballs
Rich Hill: He’s yet to pitch into the sixth inning of a game, but his K Prediction of 7.3 is the second-best mark on the main slate. His Recent Batted Ball Luck of +63 — the highest among today’s pitchers — suggests he’s been unlucky as a fantasy producer over his last two starts. Maybe this is when he puts it all together?
Dan Straily: Pitching is tough on the early slate outside of Scherzer, but Straily has some factors in his favor. He and Scherzer benefit from the same high Park Factor, and his distance differential of -28 feet is the day’s second-best mark. If you are brave enough to fade Scherzer, Straily could be a viable leverage play in GPPs.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. On the early slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack in the Bales Model belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
Per our Vegas Dashboard, the Red Sox currently lead the slate with an implied team total of 5.2 runs, and all four of the stacked batters have positive differentials in distance, exit velocity, and hard hit rate:
Batters with comparable differentials and implied team totals have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.20 on FanDuel, where all the batters but Mitch Moreland have Bargain Ratings of at least 76 percent. Royals righty Ian Kennedy has allowed at least one home run in nine straight games, and his 15-day batted ball distance of 233 feet and fly ball rate of 55 percent are both the highest marks on the early slate.
On the main slate, the highest-rated five-man DraftKings stack belongs to the top half of the projected Rockies lineup:
Playing at Coors Field, which has a Park Factor of 100, the Rockies are in perfect conditions for hitting, as they currently have a Weather Rating of 100. Comparable conditions at Coors have historically resulted in lots of fantasy goodness for batters:
The Rockies are implied for a slate high 6.3 runs, and Diamondbacks pitcher Tijuan Walker has struggled recently with distance, exit velocity, and hard hit differentials of +11 feet, +4 miles per hour, and +14 percentage points. Nolan Arenado has been raking over his last 12 games; his recent batted ball distance of 271 feet is one of the highest marks of the day as is his distance differential of +40 feet.
Batters
If you’re looking for a cheap option, consider Chad Pinder at only $3,000 on DraftKings. He has an average batted ball distance of 235 feet over his past 12 games, and his Rec BBL of +76 is the second-highest mark among projected starters. Batters with comparable numbers in both categories have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.24 on DraftKings. Factoring in Pinder’s implied team total (4.5 runs) and lineup spot (second) increases the Plus/Minus to +1.84.
You’d be hard-pressed to find anyone with better recent Statcast data than Lonnie Chisenhall:
Batters with comparable distance and hard hit differentials have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.28 on FanDuel, where Chisenhall has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent. Orioles pitcher Kevin Gausman has some concerning Statcast data over his last two starts, with poor differentials in distance, exit velocity, and hard hit rate. The Indians are currently implied for a strong 5.3 runs, and Chisenhall has recently moved from the bottom of the order to a fifth. There’s a lot to like here.
Miguel Sano has been dreadful as a fantasy producer over his last 10 games . . .
. . . but he’s hitting the ball well with positive differentials in distance, exit velocity, and hard hit rate over the last 15 days, and today’s matchup against White Sox lefty David Holmberg puts him on the positive side of his wOBA and ISO splits. Sano has a strong Bargain Rating of 91 percent on DraftKings, and the Twins currently trail only the Rockies with their implied total of 5.9 runs.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
