The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday has a split slate: There are five games in the 12:35 pm ET early slate and 10 games in the 7:05 pm ET main slate.
Pitchers
Studs
There are four pitchers today with DraftKings salaries above $9,000:
There’s an even split between the early and main slates: Marcus Stroman and Jose Quintana are in the former; Chris Sale and Luis Severino are in the latter.
Much like Clayton Kershaw, Sale dominates his slates. Despite sky-high price tags, they continually have high ownership levels: Kershaw, at $13,400 in a 15-game slate last night, was about 40 percent owned in the three largest DraftKings guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). In a smaller slate, Sale could easily hit that mark, especially considering how dominant he’s been in 2017:
He struck out only seven batters in his first start of the year, but in the nine since then he’s finished with double-digit strikeouts in each game. He leads all pitchers in the league with a 3.0 WAR — and it isn’t close. The dude is an absolute stud and is at the top of his game right now.
Today he faces a Rangers team with a below-average .317 team wOBA this season. They’re currently implied for just 3.2 runs, and Sale is an absolutely massive -260 moneyline favorite. According to our Trends tool, pitchers with moneyline odds similar to Sale’s have been very valuable:
And that says nothing of his 7.5 K Prediction, which is 1) the second-highest mark today behind Rich Hill‘s 7.7 and 2) probably low considering Sale’s elevated 13.0 SO/9 rate this season. Sale has slightly concerning Statcast data — he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 236 feet and a fly ball rate of 46 percent — but he hasn’t allowed a lot of hard contact, and, again, he’s going for double-digit strikeouts essentially every start right now. Chalky, he will be.
Stroman will likely be the most popular option in the early games, although no pitcher is really safe: No team is currently implied for less than 3.9 runs. Stroman doesn’t have great Vegas data — he’s just a small -117 favorite and facing a Brewers team currently implied for 4.2 runs — but his Statcast data is elite. Over his past two games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 178 feet, an exit velocity of 86 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 14 percent, and a hard hit rate of 14 percent. Further, while his 6.5 K Prediction isn’t stellar, it’s still the highest mark in today’s ugly early slate. It’s hard to pay a $10,200 price tag on DraftKings for that Vegas data and unimpressive strikeout upside, but it’s easier to deal with on FanDuel, where his $8,900 salary comes with a 90 percent Bargain Rating.
Values
The Dodgers’ rotation is one of the more frustrating ones to dissect thanks to blisters, pitch counts, and iffy communication from manager Dave Roberts. Rich Hill is taking the mound for the second time since returning from the DL due to finger blisters that plagued him last season as well. He performed well in his first start, allowing just one earned run and striking out six batters across five innings. In that game, he allowed a batted ball exit velocity of 89 miles per hour and a hard hit rate of 30 percent. Those are solid marks, and he has excellent data today: He faces a St. Louis Cardinals team that is currently implied for just 3.4 runs, and, as mentioned above, his 7.7 K Prediction is the best among all pitchers. That said, it’s hard to figure out how long he’ll pitch: Roberts seemed optimistic about Hill before last game . . .
Rich Hill could throw 90-100 pitches tonight, Dave Roberts said.
— Andy McCullough (@McCulloughTimes) May 17, 2017
. . . and then he pulled him after 82 pitches. Hill is a worthwhile gamble in GPPs given his high upside and reasonable price tags of $8,900 on DraftKings and $8,700 on FanDuel, but it’s nearly impossible to predict how long he’ll go.
Kyle Hendricks was bad to begin his 2017 campaign, but he has seen some recent positive regression:
His Statcast data suggests as well that he’s trending in the right direction: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 192 feet, an exit velocity of 90 miles per hour, and a fly ball rate of 27 percent. He has stellar Vegas marks today: He’s a sizable -187 favorite going against a Giants team that ranks dead last this season with a .280 team wOBA and is currently implied for just 3.0 runs — the lowest mark of any team. Hendricks does have a fairly low K Prediction of 5.5, which is concerning, as is his game’s 53 percent chance of precipitation. This is a situation to monitor — check weather and lineups on our MLB Lineups page — as Hendricks is certainly an intriguing option if he’s able to go. If it looks like the weather will be clear for him in Chicago, he’s arguably one of the safest cash-game options on the board.
Fastballs
Charlie Morton: He owns a poor 1.455 past-year WHIP, but his 10.727 SO/9 rate is the second-highest mark among all pitchers today. He’s just $8,300 on FanDuel and owns a top-three K Prediction of 7.0 against the Tigers.
Jose Berrios: He has a massive salary discrepancy between the two sites, as he’s $9,400 on FanDuel and just $7,400 on DraftKings, where he has a 96 percent Bargain Rating. He struck out 11 batters last game but owns a poor 4.6 opponent implied run total today versus the Orioles.
Randall Delgado: He’s getting the start for the Diamondbacks today and is just $4,000 on DraftKings. A relief pitcher, he might not pitch deep into the game. Here’s what manager Torey Lovullo had to say on how many innings he’ll get: “I’m not going to put a number on it. What we’re asking him to do is go as hard as he can for as long as he can. Not change his routine, not change his game-day prep, walk into that start doing exactly what he’s been doing because he’s been locked in and throwing the ball very well.”
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. Let’s generate a five-man DraftKings stack (in the Bales Model) for the early slate and then a four-man FanDuel stack for the main slate:
There are three teams in the early slate currently implied for 4.6 runs: The Orioles, Athletics, and Diamondbacks. The White Sox-Diamondbacks game is at Chase Field, and the Diamondbacks rank third this season with a .338 team wOBA. They’re a little worse against lefties, but they still have guys crushing the ball, such as Paul Goldschmidt: Over his last 13 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 266 feet, an exit velocity of 98 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 63 percent.
On FanDuel, one of the highest-rated four-man stacks belongs to the New York Yankees:
They are currently implied for 5.0 runs, but since that’s just the fifth-best mark in the slate — the Nationals, Red Sox, Astros, and Braves are all between 5.1 and 5.3 runs — they could actually go somewhat underowned. Yankees bats have the best Park Factor in the main slate, and this offense is as explosive as any in the league; they rank second this season with a massive .346 team wOBA. They face Royals righty Jason Hammel, who has been horrid this season. He owns the second-highest HR/9 rate among main slate pitchers today at 1.601, and his recent 248-foot batted ball distance allowed is easily the worst today.
Batters
Tigers lefty Daniel Norris has given up really hard contact of late. Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 217 feet, an exit velocity of 97 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 55 percent. That is not good news against a powerful Houston offense. Carlos Beltran is currently projected to bat second for the Astros and is on the right side of his splits today: He owns a .408 wOBA and .224 ISO against lefties. He’s averaged a high 231-foot batted ball distance and leads all Houston bats with a 92 mile per hour exit velocity over the last 15 days. He hasn’t put up amazing production of late — he’s averaged a -2.67 FanDuel Plus/Minus over his last 10 games — but that could change tonight.
The best Weather Rating in the main slate currently belongs to the Pirates-Braves game. The newly acquired Matt Adams is currently projected to bat fifth for the Braves, and he’s been impressive in his short stint, going for two home runs in each of his last two games. As you might expect, his Statcast data is solid: Over his last six games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 222 feet, an exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 46 percent. Most importantly, he remains incredibly cheap, especially at only $2,400 on FanDuel, where he has a 90 percent Bargain Rating.
It seems silly to talk about Mike Trout; he’s in play in every slate. But I should at least note that he might be playing as well as he’s ever played. He’s averaged a slate-high 20.0 FanDuel points over the past month — 22 games — and hasn’t put up a dud since his first game back from the DL:
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
