The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday has a split slate: There are four games in the 12:10 pm ET early slate and 11 games in the 7:05 pm ET main slate.
Pitchers
Studs
When Clayton Kershaw is in a slate, I normally divide up these sections by “Kershaw” and “Non-Kershaws,” but he’s in the early slate so we’ll discuss some other stud pitchers as well. Kershaw is the highest-priced option today by $2,900 on DraftKings and $2,800 on FanDuel:
He’s the class of the slate against the Giants, whose implied total of 2.8 runs is 0.5 lower than that of any other team today. They remain putrid offensively, ranking dead last on the year with a .282 wOBA, although their projected lineup has a slightly higher .295 wOBA against left-handed pitchers. Unfortunately, Kershaw is no ordinary left-handed pitcher.
He’s been typically great this season, averaging a +6.13 Plus/Minus with a 75 percent Consistency Rating — and that’s despite industry-high price tags:
Over his last two games — one of which was a start at Coors Field — he’s posted elite Statcast data, allowing a batted ball distance of 180 feet, an exit velocity of 85 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 21 percent, and a hard hit rate of 21 percent. Kershaw on his game is certainly scary for opposing batters: In the seven instances in which Kershaw has had a similar opponent run total and recent exit velocity, he’s averaged 44.29 FanDuel points. That sample includes two games of 78 FanDuel points. Finally, he gets the benefit of playing in a pitcher’s park in San Francisco, where he has a day-high 94 Park Factor.
Johnny Cueto is the next highest-priced pitcher on DraftKings today at $11,500. He’s gone for 20-plus DraftKings points in each of his last three starts, he’s at home, and — he’s a large +163 moneyline underdog. Ah, the joys of pitching opposite Kershaw. Of the 15,400 DraftKings pitchers in our Trends database, 1,073 are priced $11,000 or higher. Of those, only seven have been +150 dogs:
That said, Cueto is one of the seven historical instances; earlier this month, he and Kershaw opposed each other. Cueto got the better of him, outscoring him 21.55 to 12.70. That said, betting on that to happen again seems like pushing your luck.
Lance McCullers will likely be a popular option today as well, as he’s facing a Miami Marlins team that ranks 22nd this season with a .311 team wOBA and is currently implied for just 3.5 runs. McCullers has been excellent of late, going for 21-plus DraftKings points in each of his last three starts, including a 29.1-point, four-hit gem against a high-powered Yankees offense in New York. He’s in a better park tonight in Miami, and his Statcast data suggests his recent play is not a fluke: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 174 feet, an exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 14 percent, and a hard hit rate of 23 percent. He’ll be popular on both sites, but he’s especially cheap on FanDuel, where his $9,000 salary comes with a 95 percent Bargain Rating.
Values
Matt Shoemaker was excellent in his most recent start, going for 49.0 FanDuel points against the Tigers and allowing just three hits and no runs across six innings. That said, his Statcast data is much more concerning: Over his last three games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 242 feet, an exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 63 percent, and a hard hit rate of 40 percent. Those are brutal marks, but they may not actually matter that much, as he’s facing a White Sox projected lineup that owns a miserable .271 team wOBA against righties. His Vegas line suggests he’s a safe play, as he’s currently a large -171 moneyline favorite and the White Sox are implied for just 3.3 runs. Further, his 7.4 K Prediction is tied with Kershaw’s for the third-best mark in the all-day slate.
McCullers has the highest K Prediction at 7.9, but right below him in second with a 7.7 mark is Michael Pineda. He’s been quite solid this season, averaging a +7.68 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 71 percent Consistency over his first seven starts. His Statcast data is good as well: Over his last two, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 178 feet, a fly ball rate of 26 percent, and a hard hit rate of 29 percent. He’s facing an awful Royals team that ranks 29th this season with a .283 team wOBA. Still, he’s just a -133 moneyline favorite, and the Royals are currently implied for a surprising 4.2 runs. It’s hard to understand that line — Kansas City is even worse against righties, as evidenced by the projected lineup’s .287 wOBA over the past year — but it can be exploited. Shoemaker is $1,300 cheaper on DraftKings and $500 cheaper on FanDuel, and his opponent run total is 0.9 runs less. Pineda will likely have lower ownership, which Pro subscribers can review via our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Fastballs
Jhoulys Chacin: Vegas bettors continue to short the Brewers, who are currently implied for 3.5 runs despite owning the league’s highest team ISO at .216; Chacin has a 7.1 K Prediction and is just $7,100 on DraftKings.
Michael Fulmer: The opposing Orioles are currently implied for 4.4 runs, but he’s been excellent of late, allowing a batted ball distance of 171 feet, an exit velocity of 85 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 20 percent over his last two games.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. For the early slate let’s do a five-man DraftKings stack in the Bales Model; main slate, a four-man FanDuel stack:
The Diamondbacks are currently implied for 5.1 runs, which is the second-highest mark in the early slate behind the Indians’ 5.3. They face Mets righty Matt Harvey, who has struggled over his last four games, allowing 20 earned runs across 21.2 innings. His Statcast data is a little better — over his last two, he’s allowed an exit velocity of 88 miles per hour and a hard hit rate of 35 percent — so it’s possible he’s gotten a little unlucky, but he’s also at Chase Field today. The temperature at game time is projected to be a slate-high 82 degrees.
The highest-rated stack in the main slate belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates, which is certainly surprising. They are currently implied for a respectable 4.6 runs, but that is just the ninth-highest mark of the slate; for reference, the Chicago Cubs are implied to score 7.2 runs in what looks to be another windy game. That means the Pirates will likely be low-owned, and they can do damage against Washington righty Jacob Turner, who is getting his first start of the year after working out of the bullpen. He owns the second-worst WHIP in the slate at 1.875.
Batters
Again, we have to deal with a Cubs game with a massive 12.5 total due to wind at Wrigley Field. This game finished with 14 runs last night in similar windy conditions, although there is the added risk of thunderstorms in Chicago tonight. Monitor weather leading up to lock, but the batters are in a great spot. Kyle Schwarber went 2-for-5 last night, including a home run, and he still has the best Statcast data of the projected lineup. Over his last nine games, he’s averaged a fly ball rate of 48 percent and a hard hit rate of 45 percent. Getting the ball up in the air into the wind is a recipe for fantasy points at Wrigley, and Schwarber has the potential to do it.
Our new Recent Batted Ball Luck metric remains one of my favorite stats within Player Models. Here’s the definition again:
The difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days
Nomar Mazara stands out in this regard, as he’s averaged a mediocre +0.65 FanDuel Plus/Minus despite posting stellar Statcast data. Over his last 11 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 235 feet and a fly ball rate of 47 percent. He’s come around a little of late — he’s hit value in four of his last six games — and he could continue to see positive regression. The Rangers are currently implied for 5.6 runs — the second-highest mark in the slate — and Mazara is currently projected to bat third. They face Philly righty Zach Eflin, who owns the second-highest HR/9 mark over the past year at 1.525.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
