The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday has a split slate: There are five games in the 1:05 pm ET early slate and nine games in the 7:05 pm ET main slate.
Pitchers
Studs
There are five pitchers today above $8,500 on DraftKings:
All five are in the main slate; Andrew Triggs is the highest-priced option in the five-game early slate at $8,500. He and Tommy Milone lead the slate with opponent run totals of 3.8, but no pitcher in that slate has a player rating higher than 50. For reference, there are 14 pitchers in the main slate with higher ratings than any pitcher in the early one. What I mean is this: Pitching in the early slate sucks. You’ve been warned.
Kenta Maeda, Stephen Strasburg, and Chris Archer all stand out in terms of their Vegas data — they all have opponent implied run totals of 3.1 or 3.2, and they’re all moneyline favorites of at least -177 — but it’s Yu Darvish who owns the highest K Prediction. And it’s not particularly close at the moment: Darvish’s 9.2 mark is 1.3 strikeouts higher than that of any other pitcher today, as he faces a Padres team that ranks third this season with a 24.6 percent strikeout rate. He has double-digit strikeouts in two of his last five games, and he’s actually still a -200 moneyline favorite despite having an opponent run implication of 3.5. He should be quite popular in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Maeda is one of the top pitchers in the Bales Model for both sites, as he has the best combination of K Prediction, Vegas data, and Statcast data. He’s facing a poor Pirates offense that ranks 24th this year with a .301 team wOBA and is implied for just 3.1 runs today. Maeda’s 7.9 K Prediction isn’t as good as Darvish’s, but it is the second-best mark in the slate, and Maeda does have solid Statcast data. After putting up four disappointing games to start the year, Maeda has responded with back-to-back solid performances, posting FanDuel games of +6.51 and +21.01 Plus/Minus values. Over that span, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 182 feet, an exit velocity of 90 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 25 percent, and a hard hit rate of 32 percent. He has quite a few factors in his favor today and thus has a day-high 11 DraftKings Pro Trends.
Strasburg owns the best recent batted ball data of the fivesome: Over his last two games, he’s allowed a distance of 195 feet, an exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of just 29 percent. Those numbers are from a sample that includes his worst performance of the year two games ago, when he scored only 10.15 DraftKings points in seven innings pitched. The Nationals righty is pitching well right now. While his 7.4 K Prediction is solid for most slates, it’s much lower than Darvish’s mark. That said, he offers a lot of safety: Per our Trends tool, pitchers with similar marks have historically averaged 39.88 FanDuel points and a +6.56 Plus/Minus with an impressive 75.0 percent Consistency Rating.
All five of these studs are worth rostering in GPPs, and they’ll all have moderately high ownership. Take some stands in GPPs.
Values
There aren’t many great value plays today; the five studs listed above currently have the five-highest player ratings in the Bales Model for both sites. No other pitchers have a K Prediction above 6.9, which means that if you want upside you’ll have to pay a premium for it today.
That said, there could be some (moderately) safe options in the lower range. Andrew Triggs, for example, has an opponent run implication of 3.8 against the Minnesota Twins, who own an average .161 team ISO this year. It’s a mediocre matchup for sure, but at least Triggs has solid Statcast data: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 188 feet, an exit velocity of 91 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 14 percent, and a hard hit rate of 25 percent. Pitchers who have limited fly balls and hard contact have been fairly consistent, per the Trends tool:
That’s something, right?
Lance Lynn could be an interesting lower-price option, as he’s gone for 40-plus FanDuel points in each of his last four outings:
He’s in a pitcher’s park in Miami and owns solid Statcast data, as evidenced by his 183-foot batted ball distance and 30 percent fly ball rate allowed over his last two starts. And it doesn’t seem as if today’s matchup is tough: He’s facing a Marlins team that currently ranks 24th this season with a .142 team ISO mark. Not a whole lot has changed recently in the Miami offense other than moving their pitchers to eighth in the order and batting Dee Gordon ninth, so the Marlins’ 4.2 implied run total does seem a bit odd given Lynn’s solid play of late. It’s hard to justify Lynn over the studs on FanDuel, where you roster only one pitcher, but he could be a contrarian play on DraftKings, where he’s a slightly better value at $8,400.
Fastballs
Kyle Hendricks: He’s likely the most talented pitcher in the early slate, but unfortunately he’s at Coors Field with an opponent run implication of 4.8; that said, he has solid Statcast data over his last three starts, and this marks only the third time he’s been $7,300 or less on FanDuel since 2015.
Jason Hammel: He’s been mostly bad this year, averaging a -6.95 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 33 percent Consistency through six starts; that said, he put up 43.0 points last game.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. Since we have a split slate, let’s do a five-man DraftKings stack for the early slate and a four-man FanDuel stack for the main slate:
Houston put up five early runs last night en route to an 8-3 win over the Braves, and there’s little reason to think they’ll slow down today. They’re currently implied for 5.2 runs — more than the Rockies at Coors — against Braves lefty Jaime Garcia. George Springer and Carlos Beltran both own ISO marks of .230 or higher against lefties; Yulieski Gurriel is the only batter in today’s lineup with significant negative splits against LHP. Carlos Correa has slightly negative splits, but he continues to crush the ball: Over his last 14 games, he’s average a batted ball distance of 242 feet, an exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 46 percent. Houston could be much lower-owned than the Cubs bats despite having just as much upside.
On FanDuel, the highest-rated four-man stack in the Bales Model currently belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals:
They face Miami’s Tom Koehler, who was been atrocious lately. Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 249 feet, an exit velocity of 96 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 53 percent, and a hard hit rate of 57 percent. He’s allowed three home runs and six earned runs over his last nine innings pitched. The Cardinals definitely have some hot bats, headlined by Matt Carpenter, who has done this over his last 10 games:
I’d write more about Carpenter, but Justin Bailey covered him well in today’s Three Key Players piece. Check that out.
Batters
The Tigers are at Chase Field today, and Miguel Cabrera has mashed the ball since returning from the DL six games ago. Since then, he has averaged a batted ball distance of 256 feet, an exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 55 percent. He has struck out a lot lately, whiffing five times in the past three games, but he certainly has power and is in the best hitter’s park of the main slate. The Tigers are currently implied for just 4.9 runs — the third-highest mark in the slate — which means their ownership could actually be reasonable for a team almost at a 5.0 implication. The Tigers get Arizona righty Zack Godley, who owns a poor 1.559 WHIP and bad 1.664 HR/9 mark over the last year.
The Dodgers are in a similar spot today: They’re currently implied for 4.5 runs — the sixth-highest mark in the main slate — which means that ownership on their batters should be moderately low. Per the MLB Lineups page, 21-year-old Cody Bellinger is projected to bat cleanup, and he’s been excellent in his short career: Over his last 10 games, he’s averaged a +12.18 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 70 percent Consistency. His Statcast data is solid, too: Over his last 12, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 236 feet, a fly ball rate of 48 percent, and a hard hit rate of 39 percent. His ridiculous .500 ISO against righties will certainly come down — it’s a small sample given this is his first season — but his peripheral stats suggest he’s pretty darn good.
It’s unclear if this game will play given the bad weather forecast, but here’s a reminder of how ridiculous Miguel Sano is:
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
