Wednesday’s 12-game main slate begins at 7:05pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Pitchers
Studs
On yesterday’s Inside the Lab MLB Live show — by the way, there’s another one today at 5pm ET for Pro subscribers — we discussed how our Player Models adjust for opposing team weighted on-base average (wOBA) on a player level instead of a team level. That is a critical distinction, especially early in the year, as rosters have changed since the 2016 season. Take a look at today’s projected Braves lineup, for example:
That’s not a top-end lineup, but it will likely be better than it was for the majority of 2016 now that Dansby Swanson is the everyday shortstop and Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis are in the outfield. I’m not trying to talk up the Braves, but they are a good example of 2016 wOBA not matching up with the current lineup. Last season, they ranked 27th out of 30 teams in team wOBA, but the past-year wOBA of guys in the projected lineup today is .309, which ranks 10th.
So my point is that while Jacob deGrom (who is facing the Braves at home) is probably still a stud to roster, make sure you’re accounting for present-day rosters and not relying on old and irrelevant data.
Getting back to the Models: deGrom is in a nice spot if you weigh Vegas data heavily: The Braves are implied for only 2.9 runs — the second-lowest mark in the slate — and deGrom is currently a nice -194 moneyline favorite. That said, it is projected to be cold at first pitch today (51 degrees Fahrenheit). How does that affect pitchers? Ian Hartitz just wrote an article about weather and its DFS implications. Here’s what he said about pitchers and temperatures:
That’s definitely a positive sign for deGrom, although he has struggled personally in similar games (per our Trends tool):
That doesn’t look good, but in this trend deGrom frequently played against top-end offenses in places like Coors Field:
deGrom might not be horrible in 50-degree weather.
Guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) were won or lost last night by the decision to fade Kenta Maeda, but let’s not get too results-oriented on Day 3 of the MLB season. Sure, he was a worthy fade in tournaments based on what we see in the DFS Ownership Dashboard . . .
. . . but there was a reason his ownership was that high: The Padres are one of the best teams to target in MLB. In today’s main slate of games, the projected Padres lineup ranks dead last in past-year wOBA (.213) and third in past-year SO/AB rate (.323).
Rich Hill gets them today, and he’s also projected for a chalky 41-plus percent ownership on DraftKings and 17-20 percent ownership on FanDuel. Hill has the second-best past-year WHIP (0.995) among starting pitchers today, and the Padres are currently implied for a slate-low 2.6 runs. Because the Dodgers are implied for 4.5 runs, Hill is a massive -265 moneyline favorite. Out of the 56 historical pitchers with similar data points, 60.7 percent have hit value:
And if we add in Hill’s K Prediction, it gets even better:
There’s a reason Hill is projected to be the chalkiest pitcher in today’s slate.
Values
Michael Pineda is second in the slate with a Park Factor of 83 in Tampa tonight; the Rays are currently implied for just 3.5 runs. In similar circumstances Pineda has typically done well outside of one poor showing against the Rays last May:
He definitely has upside today, as he boasts the second-highest SO/9 rate at 10.806 over the past year, and the projected Rays lineup has whiffed at a rate of .270 strikeouts per at-bat over the past year. That said, there’s also downside: Pineda’s HR/9 mark of 1.41, batted ball distance allowed of 212 feet, and hard hit rate of 33 percent are all bottom-eight marks in the slate. He profiles as a boom-or-bust option for GPPs and is projected to be owned in only nine to 12 percent of FanDuel lineups.
Both James Paxton and Tanner Roark are both facing teams implied to score fewer than four runs, but there are a couple notable differences between the two. First, Paxton is much cheaper: He’s only $6,900 on DraftKings compared to Roark’s salary of $8,200. Still, Roark’s past-year WHIP (1.183) is significantly better than that of Paxton, who has a much tougher matchup against a projected Houston lineup with a past-year wOBA of .315. Paxton and Roark’s K Predictions are close — 5.5 versus 5.8 — but neither is high. Roark at least will have Ron Kulpa behind home plate, who has historically added 1.1 DraftKings points over expectations to pitchers. Roark is the superior pitcher, and he arguably has the safer floor and higher ceiling.
Fastballs
Chris Sale: He’s the most expensive pitcher on both sites at $11,200 on DraftKings and $11,400 on FanDuel, but he also has the most upside of any pitcher in the slate. Take a look at his final 10 games from last season:
Danny Salazar: He leads the slate with an 8.9 K Prediction, although the Rangers are currently implied for 4.2 runs. Pitchers with a K Prediction between 8.5 and 9.5 have historically averaged a +3.03 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. If we use overall rating to generate five-man DraftKings lineups in the Bales Model, a 1-2-3-4-5 straight stack of the Reds takes the top spot:
They are currently implied for 4.3 runs after opening with an implied total of 4.6; they could have reduced ownership as a result of the lower implication and the negative movement. They face Jerad Eickhoff, who boasts the fifth-best past-year WHIP among pitchers today. That said, the Reds still have the fourth-highest Team Value Rating (TVR) — even with the negative movement — given their (relatively) cheap salaries.
The Reds are even cheaper on FanDuel — their top-seven batters all have Bargain Ratings of at least 70 percent. After the Reds, the two highest-rated four-man FanDuel stacks belong to the Phillies and Nationals. The biggest difference between the two is price:
- Phillies (1-2-3-4): Cesar Hernandez, Howie Kendrick, Odubel Herrera, Maikel Franco – $11,600
- Nationals (1-2-3-6): Trea Turner, Adam Eaton, Bryce Harper, Jayson Werth – $14,600
The Nationals are currently implied for a superior 4.8 runs, and opposing pitcher Dan Straily ranks fourth among starting pitchers today with a past-year 1.487 HR/9 allowed rate. That said, it’s hard to deny the Phillies’ cheap salaries: They rank third on FanDuel with an 82 TVR. Stacking them easily allows you to afford a stud pitcher plus other solid bats.
Batters
The Giants yet again boast the highest TVR on both DraftKings (77) and FanDuel (93), and it’s because they’re implied to score a slate-high 5.0 runs against the Diamondbacks while having a lineup filled with relatively cheap bats. Gorkys Hernandez certainly stands out: He put up 29.2 FanDuel points last night, he’s still the minimum price on FanDuel ($2,000), and he’s projected to bat leadoff again for the Giants. His data is based off a small sample — he’s had only 61 plate appearances in 2016 and 2017 — but, still, he has an outstanding .285 ISO, is the minimum salary, and projected to bat leadoff for the Giants. He will likely be one of the most popular players in the slate.
Charlie Blackmon is expensive: At $5,100 on DraftKings, he’s tied with Manny Machado and Josh Donaldson, and he barely trails Mookie Betts and Mike Trout. That said, he does have a ton of upside: He’s projected to bat leadoff for a Rockies team that has scored 13 runs over its first two games, and he has significant splits against right-handed pitchers, as evidenced by his 0.155 ISO Differential. The Rockies are currently implied for 4.7 runs against the Brewers’ Wily Peralta, who owns the second-worst past-year WHIP in the slate at 1.544. Further, Blackmon has hidden upside with his legs: He’s averaging .125 stolen bases per game over the past year. In the 15 games last year in which he was implied for 4.5-plus runs on the road, he crushed value:
In the 21 games last year in which Yasmany Tomas hit top-five in the order at home versus a lefty, he performed well, hitting the Upside threshold 33 percent of the time.
He has extreme splits against lefties with a .328 ISO over the past year, which is a .121 bump over his ISO mark versus fellow righties. He is projected to bat fifth against lefty Matt Moore, and the Diamondbacks are currently implied for 4.6 runs. If we add a Vegas trend filter to the above query, things get even better for Tomas:
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
