Wednesday has a split slate: There are four games in the 1:45 pm ET early slate and 11 games in the 7:05 pm ET main slate. Let’s jump in.
Pitchers
Studs
It seems like Opening Day all over again. Just a day removed from a massive 15-game slate in which there were only four of 30 pitchers with FanDuel salaries of at least $8,000, today 13 of the 30 pitchers hit that threshold:
Still, there’s a clear line of demarcation between the ‘superstuds’ in Clayton Kershaw and Madison Bumgarner and the rest of the pool.
Given the data in our Player Models, it’s difficult to find a reason to fade Kershaw tonight: He’s facing the Rockies, whose 2.4-run Vegas implication isn’t just the lowest in the slate — it’s the lowest by a whopping 0.9 runs. If you didn’t look at literally any other factor, that singular data point could hint at Kershaw’s prospects: Per our Trends tool, since 2012 just 37 pitchers have had opposing run implications of 2.4 runs or less. In those games, pitchers have averaged 52.38 FanDuel points, an +11.98 Plus/Minus, and a 78.4 percent Consistency Rating:
For what it’s worth, here’s the breakdown of the pitchers in that 37-game sample and how many such games they’ve had:
- Zack Greinke: 1
- Jake Arrieta: 2
- Felix Hernandez: 2
- Clayton Kershaw: 32
I won’t, but we could probably just end the pitcher analysis there.
It gets even more ridiculous: Among the 30 starting pitchers today, Kershaw’s 9.7 K Prediction isn’t just the highest mark — it’s the highest by a whopping 2.0 strikeouts. If you didn’t look at literally any other factor, that singular data point could point you in the right direction: Since 2014, just 50 pitchers have had K Predictions of 9.7 or higher. In those games, pitchers have averaged 27.13 DraftKings points, a +6.35 Plus/Minus, and 68.9 percent Consistency Rating:
As for Kershaw’s -265 moneyline: Only 86 DraftKings pitchers since 2014 have had moneyline odds that good. Kershaw isn’t just the best pitcher in baseball and the best DFS asset when he takes the mound. He’s the best by far. From now on, if Kershaw is in a slate, I’m going to name a section after him and then we’ll get to the ‘studs.’
For more on Kershaw, see today’s Three Key MLB Players.
Bumgarner has come down to earth a bit after a hot first start of 2017 against the Diamondbacks:
That said, his Statcast data suggests he’s fine: Over his last two starts — so this doesn’t include his 4/2 performance — he’s allowed a batted ball exit velocity of just 88 miles per hour and a hard hit rate of just 28 percent.
It’s a little hard to judge his matchup today against the Royals: They rank 28th in team wOBA in 2017 (.279), and yet Bumgarner’s opposing implied run total of 3.8 is just the 10th-lowest mark among pitchers today. For that reason, his ownership could actually be held in check; many users will likely pivot up to Kershaw or down to guys like Masahiro Tanaka or Chris Archer, both of whom are less than $10,000 on FanDuel and have implied run totals of 3.3 against the White Sox and Tigers.
Values
Tanaka is perhaps the most intriguing pitchers on today’s slate. On the one hand, he’s been pretty dreadful to start the year:
On the other hand, his Vegas data is enticing, and he’s facing the White Sox, who rank 27th in team wOBA this season (.283) and ninth in strikeout rate (22.9 percent). His 15-day Statcast data doesn’t include his brutal first start, in which he allowed seven earned runs and two homers across just 2.2 innings, but he’s trended in the right direction since then. Over the past two games, he’s allowed a batted ball exit velocity of just 84 miles per hour and a hard hit rate of just 13 percent. Both marks are the second-best in the slate.
We’ve talked a lot about our new Recent Batted Ball Luck metric, and it works for pitchers, too. Here’s the definition again:
The difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days
Basically, Statcast data — distance, exit velocity, hard hit rate, and so on — tells us a lot about the quality of pitching or batting performance. Fantasy points are typically correlated with those marks, but because of varying factors — small samples, luck, etc. — a quality performance doesn’t always translate into fantasy points. Exploiting that edge can be especially beneficial in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
I bring this up because Tanaka has a high Recent Batted Ball Luck Score in the Models: He’s pitched well over his last two games, but he hasn’t scored fantasy points.
Archer, however, is the complete opposite: He’s done very well in terms of fantasy production . . .
. . . but his Statcast data is unimpressive. Over his last two starts, Archer has allowed an average batted ball distance of 206 feet, an exit velocity of 93 mph, and a hard hit rate of 38 percent. If you look solely at those numbers versus Tanaka’s over the same span, you would likely guess that Tanaka has scored more fantasy points. That hasn’t been the case. It might be wise to buy Tanaka and sell Archer in this slate. Pro subscribers can review Tanaka and Archer’s ownership levels across GPPs of various stakes in our DFS Ownership Dashboard after lineups lock.
Fastballs
Kyle Hendricks: He should be the chalk of the early slate, as he’s facing a Brewers team currently implied for just 2.9 runs; he’s been a bit unlucky of latel, as he’s averaged a -5.92 FanDuel Plus/Minus this season despite inducing groundballs at an early slate-high 54 percent.
Vincent Velasquez: He sits second among all pitchers today with a 7.7 K Prediction but should be somewhat low-owned, as he’s a dog and has an implied run total of 4.0 against the Mets.
Dallas Keuchel: He doesn’t have much strikeout upside, but come on . . .
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. As usual, let’s use the player ratings in the Bales Model to make a five-man DraftKings stack and then a four-man FanDuel stack:
Given that Young is the No. 7 batter in the projected Red Sox lineup, this could actually be a somewhat contrarian stack, as the Red Sox are currently implied for 4.4 runs, which is only the sixth-highest mark of the main slate (per our Vegas dashboard):
Francisco Liriano continues to frustrate DFS users, as he put together a 26.8-point DraftKings performance in his last start against the Orioles right after posting -11.45 fantasy points the game before against the Rays. There’s no telling which Liriano we’ll get tonight, but the Red Sox have a ton of potential: Liriano owns the fifth-worst past-year WHIP (1.551) and third-worst past-year HR/9 allowed (1.518) among pitchers today.
On FanDuel, the highest-rated four-man non-Boston stack belongs to the team opposing them — the Toronto Blue Jays:
The Blue Jays have been awful this season, as evidenced by their 27th-ranked team ISO mark of .120. That said, they’re trending up — they scored seven runs yesterday — and they’re facing Boston righty Rick Porcello, who got shelled in his last start, allowing eight earned runs and four homers across just 4.1 innings. As you might expect, his recent Statcast data is awful: He’s allowed an average batted ball distance of 236 feet, an exit velocity of 95 MPH, and a hard hit rate of 51 percent.
Batters
Corey Dickerson is projected to bat leadoff for the Rays, who are currently implied for 4.3 runs against the Tigers. He’s pretty much always in play versus right-handed pitchers, as he has extreme batting splits: Over the last year, he has a .248 ISO against righties, and over the last 15 days, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 221 feet. The Rays get Jordan Zimmerman, who has a poor past-year WHIP of 1.457 and owns the fourth-worst HR/9 allowed at 1.357. Dickerson’s poor 23 Park Factor at home isn’t ideal, but he’s been just fine in that situation when he’s been high in the order:
Another guy with extreme splits is Hunter Pence, who has a massive 0.164 ISO split over the past year against left-handed pitchers. He’s on the road in Kansas City today against lefty Jason Vargas, who has been an absolute monster over his first two starts, going for 57.0 and 43.0 FanDuel points against the Athletics and Astros. This isn’t a great matchup, but guys with high ISO splits are typically undervalued, as sites often price players toward the middle of their splits: Against righties, Pence is probably a bit overpriced; against lefties, underpriced. He’s projected for just two to four percent ownership on FanDuel, where he has a 90 percent Bargain Rating.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
