The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and Predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a split slate. The early DraftKings slate (seven games) and FanDuel slate (three games) starts at 1:05 p.m. ET. The seven-game main slate begins at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are four pitchers who cost $10,000 or more:
Trevor Bauer has crushed over the past month, averaging a +13.99 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 91% Consistency. The projected Royals lineup has a low 22.9% strikeout rate against righties over the past 12 months, but it has an atrocious splits-adjusted .292 weighted on-base average (wOBA). The Royals rank 29th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitchers this season. Even though they have a low strikeout rate, the Royals offer a good matchup to opposing pitchers.
And Bauer still has a solid 7.5 K Prediction along with favorable moneyline odds (219) and a slate-low 3.6-run opponent implied total. Additionally, Bauer is in great recent form, holding opposing teams to a low 23% hard-hit rate over his past two starts. Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions, salaries and Vegas data have been solid DFS investments (per our Trends tool):
Gerrit Cole has struggled over his past 10 starts:
The spot for Cole isn’t intriguing for someone who has the second-highest salary on the day. Even though the Rangers rank 23rd in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season, their projected lineup boasts the fourth-highest wOBA (.336) on the day. Cole also won’t have favorable pitching conditions in the hot Texas climate (Weather Rating of 30). The most concerning aspect about this matchup is that the Rangers own an implied run total of 4.5, which isn’t ideal when you’re paying such a high cost for a pitcher. Historically, pitchers with comparable Weather Ratings, K Predictions and Vegas data have struggled:
Jose Berrios is coming off a rough outing in which he allowed six earned runs in 4.1 innings. Aside from that hiccup, Berrios has dominated over his past 10 starts, averaging a +14.90 FanDuel Plus/Minus with an exceptional 90% Consistency Rating. On paper, the matchup looks excellent, as the projected Brewers lineup has a 30.8% strikeout rate and mediocre .306 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past month. Berrios’ 7.8 K Prediction is the second-highest mark on the day.
While all those metrics look great, the Vegas data isn’t as encouraging: The Brewers are implied for 4.3 runs, and the Twins are just slight -104 moneyline favorites. Pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Vegas data have been relatively mediocre:
Aaron Nola is available on the all-day FanDuel slate and early DraftKings slate. At the time of writing, there isn’t any Vegas data available for the Phillies-Orioles game, but it’s one of the best matchups you could ask for, as the Orioles rank 25th in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season. Additionally, the projected Orioles lineup has a 25.9% strikeout rate and poor .280 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months. The Phillies should end up as favorites in this heavenly matchup, and Nola has historically dominated as a home favorite:
Values
Jose Quintana and the Cubs check in as the day’s largest favorite (-224 moneyline odds), and he possesses a 7.4 K Prediction against the Tigers. At the time of writing, there is no implied run total for this game, but the current forecast calls for winds blowing out to left center at 7 mph. The primary concern with Quintana is that he’s struggled of late, averaging a -0.76 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 33% Consistency over the past month. He’s also in poor recent form, allowing a 224-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 50% hard-hit rate over his past two starts. That said, pitchers against the Tigers have done well this season, so this may be a nice bounceback spot:
Rich Hill was given a long leash in his last start: He threw 110 pitches in 6.2 innings and struck out 10 hitters in the process. Hill has an excellent matchup against a projected Pirates lineup that boasts a high 28.4% strikeout rate and awful .284 wOBA against left-handed pitchers over the past year. Additionally, the Pirates are implied for just 3.3 runs, and the Dodgers are sizeable -209 moneyline favorites. He’s an attractive value on FanDuel, where he owns an 87% Bargain Rating.
Fastballs
Marcus Stroman: He enters this game in elite recent form, holding opposing teams to a recent batted-ball distance of 187 feet, exit velocity of 89 mph and hard-hit rate of 34%. Stroman’s 5.4 K Prediction leaves much to be desired, but the Mets are implied for a pedestrian 3.8 runs, and the Blue Jays check in as -185 moneyline favorites.
Patrick Corbin: He has been excellent over the past year, sporting a 0.99 HR/9 and 10.56 SO/9. Corbin has an intriguing matchup against the Cardinals, whose lineup owns a 27.4% strikeout rate and .309 wOBA against lefties over the past year and who rank 23rd in wRC+ against lefties this season. Overall, Corbin is in a favorable spot, possessing a 7.2 K Prediction, and the Diamondbacks are -142 moneyline favorites.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. One of the top early-slate DraftKings stacks in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the A’s, who are implied for 4.9 runs:
It’s a great matchup for the A’s against Luis Perdomo, who is being called up to start on Wednesday. Through just 14 innings this season, Perdomo has an awful 8.36 ERA.
The matchup against the righty will put the all the stacked batters on the positive sides of their wOBA and isolated power (ISO) splits:
Matt Olson has crushed righties over the past year with his .399 wOBA and elite .343 ISO. He’s also in terrific recent form, posting a 230-foot average distance, 93-mph exit velocity and 55% hard-hit rate. Matt Joyce has obliterated the ball over his past seven games with a 98-mph exit velocity and 52% hard-hit rate. His +64 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) suggests that he’s been unlucky of late and could be due for progression. Historically, hitters with comparable batted-ball data and RBBLs have averaged a +1.54 DraftKings Plus/Minus. The stacked A’s are appealing in that they all boast average distances and exit velocities above 217 feet and 91 mph.
The top four-man main-slate FanDuel stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Blue Jays, who are implied for 5.3 runs:
The Blue Jays are set to take on Corey Oswalt, who allowed a ridiculous 230-foot average distance, 96-mph exit velocity and 58% hard-hit rate in his last start: He gave up six hits, six earned runs and two home runs in just 2.2 innings.
Curtis Granderson has torched righties over the past year to the tune of an impressive .353 wOBA and .237 ISO: His wOBA and ISO differentials are among the highest at his position. Justin Smoak‘s wOBA (.352) and ISO (.239) are nearly identical to Granderson’s, but Smoak has amazing recent batted-ball data over his past 10 games. Smoak possesses an exceptional 244-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 44% hard-hit rate. All of those marks represent positive differentials when compared to his 12-month averages.
Other Batters
At the time of writing, the Yankees are the only team on the early slate with an implied run total above 5.0 runs. Considering Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Hicks all sport excellent recent batted-ball data, the Yankees will probably be popular:
Judge owns an absurd .422 wOBA and .342 ISO against righties over the past 12 months, while Stanton’s ISO (.305) is also comparable. Historically, hitters with comparable batted-ball data and implied run totals have averaged a +3.31 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Nolan Arenado will take on a lefty, which can be advantageous for him considering he boasts an elite .575 wOBA and .455 ISO against left-handed pitchers over the past year. Arenado is also smashing the baseball over his past 13 games, evidenced by his 255-foot average distance, 97-mph exit velocity and 56% hard-hit rate. Hitters with comparable batted-ball data at Coors Field have historically averaged a massive +4.09 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 49.4% Consistency.
Over his past two starts, Dylan Covey has allowed an awful 240-foot average distance, 93-mph exit velocity and 48% hard-hit rate. Meanwhile, Joey Votto owns a solid 254-foot average distance, 97-mph exit velocity and 54% hard-hit rate. Votto’s differential of +26 feet leads all first basemen on the main slate. Historically, hitters with comparable batted-ball data have averaged a +1.36 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Rich Hill
Photo credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
