The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a 10-game main slate at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel there are three main-slate pitchers who cost $9,000 or more:
Robbie Ray (oblique) is making his first start since April 29. It’s unknown whether he is ready to go deep into a game — the team exercised caution in his latest rehab start, allowing only 66 pitches — but if he’s right no pitcher on the slate has his strikeout upside. His 14.03 SO/9 over the past 12 months and massive 9.5 K Prediction lead the slate by a large margin, and the projected Marlins lineup has struggled to hit lefties with a slate-worst 0.279 wOBA over the past year. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries and K Predictions have performed well on FanDuel (per our Trends tool):
Vegas is also a believer in Ray, as the Marlins are implied for a slate-low 3.3 runs, and the Diamondbacks are slate-high -170 moneyline favorites.
Madison Bumgarner has the benefit of pitching at AT&T Park, where he has a 93 Park Factor at home, but his matchup isn’t especially exploitable: The Rockies rank fourth in wRC+ against lefties this season. Bumgarner’s Statcast data from the past two starts is strong with a 189-foot average batted-ball distance and 89-mph exit velocity, but he lacks strikeout upside. Bumgarner has a mediocre K Prediction of 5.8, which isn’t ideal for a high-priced pitcher, but he notably owns a slate-leading 1.12 WHIP over the past 12 months. It also helps that the Rockies are tied for a bottom-two 3.5 runs, and the Giants are currently the second-largest moneyline favorite on the main slate (-142).
Rick Porcello rounds out the group of high-priced pitchers and is the fourth-largest favorite (-143 moneyline odds), but his odds have more to do with Boston’s slate-leading implied team total of 5.2 runs than his opponent implied team total of 4.4 runs. The Angels have limited their strikeouts against right-handed pitchers, owning a strikeout rate of just 22.0% over the past 12 months. Given that Porcello has a K/9 of only 8.23 over the same time, his upside is limited.
Values
A possible punt option could be Luis Cessa, who costs $5,900 on DraftKings and $5,500 on FanDuel. While Cessa doesn’t have much strikeout upside (5.6 K Prediction), the opposing Phillies do own a slate-high 28.2% strikeout rate. Cessa’s 1.55 WHIP is bottom-two on the slate, and the Phillies have an intimidating .323 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months, but the Yankees are -132 moneyline favorites, and the Phillies are implied for a mediocre 4.0 runs. Pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions and Vegas data have historically averaged a +1.41 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Zack Wheeler costs just $6,300 on DraftKings with an 89% Bargain Rating. He may be a necessary SP2 candidate for those who want to pay up for batters. His matchup against the Pirates is basically set as a pick’em (-111 moneyline odds), but Pittsburgh sports a bottom-two .285 wOBA against righties over the past year and is implied for only 3.7 runs.
NOTE: The Pirates-Mets game currently has rain in the forecast, so be sure to monitor its status up until lineup lock.
Fastballs
Jack Flaherty: He would have reached the stud category on DraftKings, and his top-three 1.17 WHIP over the past year does wonders to justify his $9,400 price tag, but his matchup is terrible against the Indians, who have a low 20.1% strikeout rate. Even so, Flaherty owns a respectable 6.3 K Prediction and has arguably the best recent Statcast data on the slate with an immaculate 167-foot batted-ball distance allowed, 86-mph exit velocity and 15% hard-hit rate. Similarly priced pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Statcast data have smashed value on DraftKings:
Alex Wood: He’s struggled over his past four starts, averaging a Plus/Minus of -4.11 on DraftKings, but his recent Statcast data is strong with an average distance of 189 feet and hard-hit rate of just 22%. He could be due for progression with a slate-leading +60 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL). Wood owns fantastic marks in both opponent implied run total (3.5) and moneyline odds (-133) against the Cubs and could provide upside in guaranteed prize pools with a top-three 6.5 K Prediction.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Athletics, whose implied total of 5.1 runs trails only that of the Red Sox:
With a top-four .323 wOBA, the Athletics have smashed right-handed pitching over the last year, and White Sox pitcher Mike Fiers can be susceptible to the long ball with a slate-high 1.82 HR/9.
Matthew Joyce will likely be popular in cash games, and he’s recently crushed the ball with an average distance of 240 feet, exit velocity of 98 mph and 57% hard-hit rate. Khris Davis and Matt Olson will also help anchor Oakland stacks, and each player in this group is on the plus side of his batting splits:
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
Their implied team total of 5.2 runs is the top mark on the slate, which will likely make them one of the highest-owned stacks, but avoiding No. 2 hitter Andrew Benintendi could differentiate your lineup. He is on the wrong side of incredibly poor splits, including a -.092 wOBA and -.073 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching.
The Red Sox have a nice matchup against Andrew Heaney, who trails only Fiers today in HR/9 over the past year. Mookie Betts was in a smash spot yesterday — he obliged with a home run — and not much has changed today in an arguably even better matchup. The stacked batters for the Red Sox all have Bargain Ratings of at least 70% on FanDuel.
Additional Batters
Arizona’s Paul Goldschmidt has immense theoretical upside against Wei-Yin Chen, who despite having impressive recent Statcast numbers has allowed the third-highest HR/9 over the past 12 months. Goldy has been playing as well as anyone recently with an unreal 245-foot batted-ball distance, 95-mph exit velocity and 48% fly-ball rate. He is also on the right side of his dramatic batting splits, sporting an elite .463 wOBA and .387 ISO against left-handed pitching.
Batting cleanup for the Twins, Logan Morrison is still underpriced on both sites, especially FanDuel at just $2,600 with a 70% Bargain Rating. He has a 54% fly-ball rate, and opposing White Sox pitcher James Shields is tied for the slate-lead in fly balls allowed over the last 15 days.
With a lower-end implied total of 4.1 runs, the Dodgers could see low ownership today. Joc Pederson has been crushing the ball lately with an average distance of 272 feet, exit velocity of 94 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 65%, numbers that smash his 12-month averages with differentials of +52 feet, +4 mph, and +27 percentage points.
Nelson Cruz is questionable (back) and is on the negative side of his batting splits, but he boasts the Mariners’ highest ceiling projection with his 246-foot average distance and 53% fly-ball rate. On the other side of this game, Mark Trumbo could provide upside with a 252-foot batted-ball distance, 95 mph exit velocity and 53% hard-hit rate.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Matt Joyce (23) and Matt Olson (28)
Photo credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
