The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
The slates for Wednesday vary by site. DraftKings and FanDuel each have a 14-game all-day slate at 12:35 p.m. ET and a seven-game main at 7:05 p.m. ET. The difference comes in the early slate: DraftKings has a six-game early slate at 1:10 p.m. ET, while FanDuel has a four-game early slate at 12:35 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Throughout the various slates, FanDuel has five pitchers that top $9,000 or more:
Gerrit Cole is coming off an absurd 16-strikeout game, giving him a league-best 41.9% strikeout rate among starting pitchers this season. Cole will draw a tougher matchup against an A’s team whose projected lineup boasts a .339 weighted on-base average (wOBA) over the past 12 months. The A’s also own a top-10 mark in weighted runs created (wRC+) against righties this season (FanGraphs). That said, the A’s still own a 25.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, and Cole has been dominant thus far. He squared off against the A’s two starts ago, and he punched out 12 of them in 6.2 innings. Cole has a solid 7.2 K Prediction, and the Astros are sizeable -166 moneyline favorites: Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and Vegas data have still been safe investments (per our Trends tool):
Rostering Cole will come down to how you want to shape your rosters on a slate in which five teams have implied totals over 5.0 runs.
Patrick Corbin checks in as the top-priced main slate pitcher. Overall, he’s been outstanding this season, sporting an average +16.50 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 100% Consistency:
It’s an intriguing matchup against the Dodgers, whose projected lineup owns a very high 31.6% strikeout rate and an average .303 wOBA against lefties over the past 12 months. The downside to Corbin is that he’s pitching opposite of Alex Wood, which makes him a road underdog (+115). That said, Corbin owns an excellent 8.6 K Prediction, and the Dodgers are implied for just 3.7 runs. Pitchers on the road with comparable Vegas data and K Predictions have historically out-performed their salary-based expectations quite handily and at modest ownership:
Carlos Carrasco and the Indians are sizeable -156 moneyline favorites against the Brewers, whose projected lineup owns a 25.8% strikeout rate and .289 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past year. Carrasco is one of the rare pitchers with positive road splits:
Carrasco got roughed up in his two previous home starts, allowing a recent average distance of 251 feet, exit velocity of 95 mph, and hard-hit rate of 42%, and his Statcast data is the primary concern with him heading into this start, but he has a solid 7.7 K Prediction, and the Brewers are implied for a pedestrian 3.8 runs. Historically, Carrasco has fared well on the road with comparable K Predictions and Vegas data:
Rick Porcello has the fourth-highest pitching salary despite taking on a Yankees team implied for 5.2 runs, which sets the Red Sox up as +156 road underdogs. The projected Yankees lineup owns a strikeout rate of just 23.4% while sporting an elite .364 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months, and the Yanks also rank third in wRC+. You likely don’t need me to tell you that pitchers with comparable K Predictions (5.7) and Vegas data have not fared well:
Gio Gonzalez checks in as the third-most expensive pitcher on the main slate. He’s in a favorable spot against a Padres team whose projected lineup owns a 28.7% strikeout rate and .303 wOBA against lefties over the past 12 months. Gonzalez has been stellar this season, posting a 71% Consistency Rating. Further, over his past two starts he owns excellent recent batted-ball data with a 185-foot average distance, 88-mph exit velocity, and 22% hard-hit rate. Along with the tremendous recent batted-ball data, Gio has an 8.1 K Prediction and 3.6-run opponent implied total. Historically, pitchers with comparable batted-ball data, K Predictions, opponent implied totals have been excellent investments:
Values
Alex Wood owns a 72% Bargain Rating on DraftKings against the Diamondbacks, which is notable in that he’s a home favorite and $5,700 cheaper than the opposing pitcher in Corbin. It’ll be an interesting matchup, as the projected Diamondbacks lineup owns a 27.3% strikeout rate and .321 wOBA against lefties over the past 12 months, and this season they rank eighth in wRC+ against them. However, the Diamondbacks are implied for just 3.4 runs, and the Dodgers check in as -125 moneyline favorites. Pitchers with comparable K Predictions (7.3) and Vegas data have historically been good but not great:
Wood has also allowed a lot of hard contact over his past two starts with a 95-mph exit velocity and 43% hard-hit rate.
Run totals aren’t posted yet for the Marlins-Cubs game, but the Cubs are -211 moneyline favorites against the Marlins, and Jose Quintana owns a 97% Bargain Rating on FanDuel. Quintana has a paltry 6.2 K Prediction, but pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Vegas data have historically averaged a +3.81 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Fastballs
Masahiro Tanaka: Owns a decent 6.9 K Prediction and the Yankees are -170 moneyline favorites. However, it’s a tough matchup against the Red Sox, who boast a 22.5% strikeout rate and .337 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months. The Sox also rank first in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season. Pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Vegas data have averaged just a +0.42 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Chris Stratton: Sports a 93% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and a solid K Prediction of 7.0. The Giants are slight underdogs (+114), and the Phillies are implied for a sizeable 4.8 runs, but pitchers with comparable Bargain Ratings, K Predictions, and Vegas data have historically averaged a +1.48 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Stratton could be a potential punt option at SP2.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack on the early slate in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Indians, who are implied for 4.8 runs:
It’s a solid matchup for the Indians, as Brewers righty Junior Guerra has allowed a lot of hard contact over his past two starts with a 93-mph exit velocity and 48% hard-hit rate. Jose Ramirez owns a solid .400 wOBA and .285 isolated power (ISO) against righties over the past 12 months. He’s also been crushing the ball with a 93-mph exit velocity and 45% hard-hit rate. Jason Kipnis could be due for some progression as he owns a 222-foot recent average distance and a Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) of +62. Hitters with comparable run totals, batted-ball data, and RBBLs have historically averaged a +1.13 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
The top four-man FanDuel main-slate stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Orioles, who are implied for 5.1 runs against Royals lefty Eric Skoglund:
Skoglund owns an awful 1.85 WHIP, and he’s allowed a ton of hard contact over his past two starts with a 96-mph exit velocity and 62% hard-hit rate. Jonathan Schoop has smashed lefties over the past 12 months with an elite .430 wOBA and .313 ISO. The same can be said for Mark Trumbo, who is sporting a .338 wOBA and .206 ISO. Further, Trumbo owns positive differentials in both exit velocity (+2 mph) and hard-hit rate (+9-percentage points). Hitters with comparable differentials and Vegas data have historically averaged a +1.32 Plus/Minus.
Other Batters
Daniel Mengeden has allowed a decent amount of hard contact over his past two starts with a 42% hard-hit rate. Meanwhile, the Astros are implied for 4.9 runs, and Jose Altuve is sporting a recent 93-mph exit velocity and 50% hard-hit rate. Hitters with comparable data have averaged a +1.15 Plus/Minus.
Charlie Blackmon has crushed righties over the past 12 months with a .418 wOBA and .283 ISO. He’s in an excellent spot, as the Rockies are at home and implied for 6.2 runs. Blackmon has historically averaged a +2.62 DraftKings Plus/Minus against righties at Coors Field.
Lucas Duda is sporting a very high RBBL of +54, suggesting that he’s been unlucky as a fantasy producer in the short term. Historically, hitters with comparable RBBLs and recent batted-ball data (224-foot average distance, 91-mph exit velocity, 34% hard-hit rate) in games with similar run totals have averaged a +1.99 FanDuel Plus/Minus. It also doesn’t hurt that Duda has torched righties over the past 12 months with a .357 wOBA and .266 ISO. He’s an excellent value on FanDuel with an 82% Bargain Rating.
Josh Donaldson has the pleasure of facing Mariners pitcher Wade LeBlanc, who owns some of the worst recent batted-ball data on the slate with a 241-foot average distance, 92-mph exit velocity, and 41% hard-hit rate. Donaldson owns an elite .405 wOBA and .346 ISO against lefties over the past 12 months. Hitters squaring off against pitchers with comparable recent batted-ball data have historically averaged a +1.36 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
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Pictured above: Lucas Duda
Photo Credit: Gerry Angus-USA TODAY Sports
