The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a 10-game main slate at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On DraftKings there are three main-slate pitchers who cost $10,000 or more:
Max Scherzer is in a fantastic spot against an underwhelming Orioles lineup with a 27.4% strikeout rate and .297 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against righties over the past 12 months. Additionally, Scherzer sports a slate-best .898 WHIP and 12.75 SO/9 over that same time, and he has a predictably massive 11.0 K Prediction. He wasn’t as sharp as usual in his last start, allowing seven hits and accruing only four strikeouts, but he averaged 13.0 Ks per game over his previous three starts. Baltimore is implied for only 3.5 runs, and the Nationals are large -200 moneyline favorites. Historically, Scherzer has smashed salary-based DraftKings expectations with comparable Vegas data (per our Trends tool):
Not many players threaten Scherzer’s strikeout upside in any slate, but James Paxton has shown plenty of upside:
He has a good matchup against a projected Rangers lineup that owns a high 27.7% strikeout rate and .305 wOBA against lefties over the past 12 months. With Scherzer and other high-end pitchers available, Paxton is an excellent tournament play, given that he still has a 7.6 K Prediction and could have reduced ownership. Vegas is backing the Mariners as -247 moneyline favorites, and the Rangers are implied for a slate-low 3.1 runs.
Shohei Ohtani is another top-priced pitcher, but his matchup isn’t easy despite his high 8.9 K Prediction. Although he has an immaculate 11.88 SO/9, the projected Tigers lineup doesn’t strikeout at an exorbitantly high rate, fanning only 21.8% of the time over the past month. That said, Ohtani and the Angels are -210 moneyline favorites, and the Tigers are implied for just 3.8 runs. He’s a much better value on FanDuel, with a Bargain Rating of 98%, and historically pitchers with comparable salaries and Vegas data have been outstanding:
Values
Ross Stripling has a K Prediction (7.5) nearly identical to Paxton’s, but he is $4,400 cheaper on DraftKings. The matchup gives Stripling immense upside — the projected Phillies lineup has a 29.6% strikeout rate — but its .317 wOBA against right-handed pitching over the past year is slightly concerning. He at least has unbelievable Statcast data with a 190-foot average distance, 86-mph exit velocity and low fly-ball and hard-hit rates of 17% and 14%.
Joe Musgrove is intriguing at $6,900 and $5,500 on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively, and he has a solid K Prediction (6.3) at a pitcher-friendly venue (85 Park Factor). Musgrove’s season was delayed due to a shoulder injury, but he was phenomenal in his Pirates debut, allowing zero earned runs on five hits and striking out seven. He will look to build on that, and he’s pitching at home, where he’s been a much more reliable fantasy producer in the past:
Fastballs
Clayton Richard: His poor 1.52 WHIP and average 7.37 SO/9 don’t inspire a ton of confidence for cash games, but his matchup against a projected Marlins lineup with a 29.4% strikeout rate and .280 wOBA over the past year makes him much more interesting for guaranteed prize pools. The Padres are -121 moneyline favorites, and the Marlins are implied for only 3.6 runs. Richard’s recent Statcast data is good with an average distance allowed of 199 feet, exit velocity of 90 mph, and low fly-ball and hard-hit rates of 25% and 18%. Pitchers with similar Vegas data and comparable Statcast numbers have historically been fantastic values on DraftKings with a +4.32 Plus/Minus.
Jose Urena: On the other side of that game, the Marlins are slight underdogs (+112) moneyline), but Urena costs just $6,300 on DraftKings. He boasts a 5.8 K Prediction against a Padres team implied for a middling 4.0 runs. Their projected lineup has a 28.4% strikeout rate against righties over the past 12 months and slate-worst .274 wOBA.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the Bales Model belongs to the Angels, who are implied for 5.4 runs:
The Angels are set to take on Tigers righty Mike Fiers, who has a 1.40 WHIP and 1.48 HR/9 over the past 12 months. Projected to hit second, Mike Trout continues to smash, averaging 13.3 DraftKings points per game with a 57% Consistency Rating over the past month. Luis Valbuena is one of the best values on the slate with a recent batted-ball distance of 261 feet, exit velocity of 94 mph, and fly-ball rate of 53% over his past five games. Only Justin Upton is on the negative side of his batting splits, and as a team the Angels have a top-four wOBA on the slate at .323:
The top four-man FanDuel stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Rockies, who have a slate-high implied total of 6.7 runs and top-three Team Value Rating of 84:
The Rockies will be chalky, but avoiding Nolan Arenado (projected to bat third) could differentiate your lineup. The conditions tonight are perfect for hitters at Coors Field, where the Park Factor is 100 and Weather Rating is 93. When Coors Field has Weather Ratings within the 90th percentile, it has historically been very gracious to hitters:
Colorado is dead last in wRC (Weighted Runs Created), but the matchup is heavily conducive to home runs as lefty Derek Holland’s 2.28 HR/9 over the past 12 months is the highest mark on the slate.
Other Batters
Bryce Harper will take on Orioles righty David Hess, who doesn’t generate many strikeouts (5.22 S/9 over the past 12 months) and gives up a ton of home runs (2.01 HR/9). Hess has allowed a high 44% fly-ball rate, and Harper is on the positive side of his batting splits with a .426 wOBA and .316 ISO as well as a dazzling 240-foot batted-ball distance over the past 15 days.
There are batters who are crushing the ball, and then there’s Miguel Sano, who has a 274-foot batted-ball distance, 94-mph exit velocity, and 61% fly-ball rate. He owns just a 20% Consistency Rating over the past month, but his +70 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) suggests that he could be due for a breakout. Hitters with comparable RBBLs and batted-ball metrics have historically averaged a +2.57 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Overall, Sano is in a good spot, as the Twins are implied for 4.9 runs with a Weather Rating of 79. If you’re in need of salary relief, teammate Logan Morrison is an option at just $2,500 on FanDuel and $3,200 on DraftKings. He is expected to bat cleanup for Minnesota, and he is generating a ton of hard contact and fly balls right now.
Rockies pitcher Jon Gray is above average, but Brandon Belt is intriguing at Coors Field, given the Giants’ implied total of 5.0 runs. His splits stand out with a .392 wOBA and .263 ISO against righties over the past 12 months, and he provides a lot of value with his 95% FanDuel Bargain Rating.
Matt Olson and the Athletics could go under-owned because of all the high-end pitchers and Coors batters on the slate. His Statcast data is unreal with a 240-foot batted-ball distance, 96-mph exit velocity, and 53% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. His +44 RBBL indicates that he could be another batter due for some progression, and Oakland’s 71 Team Value Rating is top-five on DraftKings.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Ross Stripling
Photo credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
