The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a nine-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate features a limited group of stud pitchers, with only three owning salaries of at least $9,700 on FanDuel:
Jacob deGrom is the priciest option of the group and has been fantastic to start the 2018 season:
He’s been especially good over his past three starts, posting an average Plus/Minus of +20.99, and that was with his bullpen blowing two wins. He’s struck out at least eight batters in all three of those starts, which makes his current K Prediction of 7.3 feel a bit conservative. He has a nice matchup vs. the Atlanta Braves, whose projected lineup has posted a .276 wOBA and 25.2% strikeout rate. Their implied team total of 3.3 runs is tied for the second-lowest mark on the slate, although deGrom has just -160 moneyline odds.
What really stands out with deGrom is his recent Statcast data. He’s been dominant over his past two starts, posting an average distance of 169 feet, exit velocity of 85 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of 25%. His distance is the second-lowest mark on the slate, representing a differential of -27 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Historically, pitchers with a comparable distance differentials and opponent implied team totals have been awesome values on FanDuel (per the Trends tool):
His pedestrian moneyline odds could result in slightly reduced ownership — he’s currently projected for 13-16% on FanDuel and 21-25% on DraftKings — but deGrom seems like the safest option on today’s slate.
Luis Severino has posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.95 on FanDuel through his first six starts of the season, but he’s going to face a stiff test today from the Houston Astros. They were the best team in the league last season against right-handers by a significant margin, and their projected lineup has posted a .363 wOBA and 17.5% strikeout rate against righties over the past 12 months. Both of those are the top splits-adjusted marks on the slate, and Severino’s opponent implied total of 3.6 runs is higher than you’d typically see in a pitcher of his quality.
Unlike deGrom, Severino doesn’t have great Statcast data to fall back on. He’s posted an average distance of 212 feet over his past two starts, which represents a differential of +17 feet when compared to his 12-month average. That’s especially troubling given that his K Prediction of 6.3 ranks just 10th on today’s slate.
On paper, Stephen Strasburg has a strong claim for the top pitching spot on today’s slate. His implied team total of 3.3 runs is tied with deGrom’s, and his -195 moneyline odds make him a bigger favorite. He also has a slightly higher K Prediction at 7.5.
Unfortunately, his recent Statcast data is a bit troubling. He’s posted an average distance of 229 feet over his past two starts, which is the worst mark among all pitchers on today’s slate. His Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) of -77 is alarming, and pitchers with comparable salaries and RBBLs have historically failed to return value on FanDuel:
Values
It’s hard to consider Aaron Nola a value on DraftKings, where his $9,900 salary makes him more expensive than Severino, but his $8,900 salary on FanDuel makes him only the sixth-most expensive pitcher on the slate. He has arguably the best matchup of the day against the Miami Marlins, whose projected lineup has posted a .294 wOBA and 25.6% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. Their implied team total of 3.1 runs is the lowest mark on today’s slate.
Nola’s peripherals are also strong. His K Prediction of 7.8 ranks fifth, and he’s posted a distance differential of -10 feet over his past two starts. Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions, distance differentials, and opponent implied team totals have been nice values on FanDuel:
The only downside with Nola is his potential ownership, as he’s projected to be the top-owned pitcher on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Zach Godley is an extremely appealing target on DraftKings, where his $7,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%. He’s taking on the Los Angeles Dodgers, whose projected lineup has posted a .274 wOBA and 29.9% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. He leads all pitchers on today’s slate with a K Prediction of 8.2, and pitchers with comparable Bargain Ratings and K Predictions have been solid options on DraftKings:
That said, Godley is only a slight -105 favorite, and the Dodgers lit him up for six runs in just four innings in their most recent matchup this season. He seems more viable for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) than cash games.
Fastballs
Andrew Heaney: He is dirt cheap on DraftKings at just $6,000 and provides a nice combination of K Prediction (7.9) and recent distance differential (-15 feet). Historically pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and distance differentials have posted a Plus/Minus of +3.60 on DraftKings.
Luis Castillo: He entered the season with a lot of promise but has averaged a horrid Plus/Minus of -7.16 on DraftKings through his first six starts. Even so, he’s still a strong strikeout pitcher, evidenced by a K Prediction of 8.0. He’s also seen a salary decrease of $3,400 over the past month on DraftKings, and pitchers with comparable monthly salary changes, K Predictions, and salaries ($5,300) have crushed:
He could be an intriguing buy-low option for GPPs.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS Lineups. The top-rated five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers:
The Brewers lead the main slate with an implied team total of 4.9 runs, and they are facing the aforementioned Reds right-hander Castillo. He’s been among the worst pitchers in the league to start the season, posting an ERA of 7.85 and a HR/9 of 1.88. The Brewers are also in excellent form at the moment, with all but Domingo Santana owning a positive distance differential among the stacked batters.
The downside of this stack is its potential ownership. The Brewers will be one of the highest-owned teams on the slate, and a conventional stack of their top projected hitters will be popular. You’ll need to focus on being contrarian with the rest of your lineup if you do choose to stack the Brewers in this fashion.
The top FanDuel stack also belongs to the Brewers, but the top stack for their opponent is not far behind:
The Reds are taking on Brewers left-hander Wade Miley, and their implied team total of 4.8 runs is tied for second on the slate. Miley has posted a dreadful 1.90 WHIP and 1.62 HR/9 over the past 12 months, and most of the stacked batters are on the positive side of their hitting splits:
The one real exception is Joey Votto, but his wOBA split of .415 against left-handers is still one of the top wOBA splits on the slate. The stacked batters are also in elite form, with each owning a distance differential of at least +10 feet over the past 15 days. The Reds stack is a bit more expensive than the Brewers stack, but it arguably possesses more upside and should command lower ownership. Justin Bailey covers Reds third baseman Eugenio Suarez in today’s Three Key MLB Players.
Other Batters
Asdrubal Cabrera has raked to start the season for the Mets, posting a .407 wOBA. He’s facing Braves left-hander Sean Newcombe, and Cabrera has owned lefties to the tune of a .432 wOBA over the past 12 months. He’s in strong recent form as well, owning positive differentials in distance, exit velocity, and hard hit rate over the past 15 days.
The Yankees bats have been as good as advertised recently, but most people will likely avoid them against former Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel. However, Keuchel has not looked like himself to start the season, and Giancarlo Stanton has absolutely destroyed left-handers over the past 12 months. Pairing him with some of his teammates could make for an intriguing contrarian stack.
No one on today’s slate has been in better recent form that Mitch Haniger. He’s been a fantasy stud of late . . .
. . . and the Statcast data suggests his production has been no fluke. He’s posted a 270-foot distance, 95-mph exit velocity, and 42% hard-hit rate over the past 13 games, resulting in a slate-high distance differential of +46 feet. The Mariners’ implied team total of 4.6 runs ranks fourth.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
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Pictured above: Stephen Strasburg
Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
