The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features slates that differ on each site. Both DraftKings and FanDuel offer an all-day slate at 12:05 p.m. ET. For the early slate (which also starts at 12:05 pm ET), DraftKings offers nine games; FanDuel, six. The main slate for both sites is at 7:05 p.m. ET.
There is the potential for rain in a few games today. Be sure to monitor their status up until lineup lock.
Pitchers
Studs
Throughout various slates, FanDuel has three pitchers who cost $11,000 or more:
Max Scherzer draws a home matchup against a potent Yankees lineup that ranks second in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitchers this season (FanGraphs). However, when the Yankees aren’t connecting, they strike out frequently. Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge both have strikeout rates higher than 28% against righties this season. The projected Yankees lineup owns a strikeout rate of 23.6% against righties over the past 12 months. Scherzer always has a high floor and ceiling with his strikeout ability, and he’s sporting a high 10.5 K Prediction. The Nationals are -166 moneyline favorites, and Scherzer has historically dominated with comparable K Predictions and Vegas data:
The only worry with Scherzer is his recent batted-ball data: He’s allowed an average distance of 225 feet, exit velocity of 91 mph and hard-hit rate of 38% over his last two starts.
Chris Sale checks in as the largest favorite on the main slate (-263 moneyline), and the A’s are implied for a slate-low 3.0 runs. Their projected lineup owns a high 26.6% strikeout rate against lefties over the past 12 months, and Sale boasts a 9.4 K Prediction. He also has the best recent batted-ball data among the stud pitchers, sporting a 195-foot average distance, 88-mph exit velocity, and 26% hard-hit rate. Historically, Sale has dominated as a member of the Red Sox when they are at least -200 moneyline favorites:
Justin Verlander has been extraordinary this season:
However, he has the toughest draw among the studs against an Angels team whose projected lineup has a low 19.4% strikeout rate and high .343 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against righties over the past 12 months. Further, Verlander owns a minuscule 6.1 K Prediction. He may be tough to plug in considering his price and low-ish -131 moneyline odds. Verlander’s recent batted-ball data is also mediocre, as he owns a 231-foot average distance with a 90-mph exit velocity, and the Angels rank eighth in hard-hit rate this season. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, metrics, and Vegas data have been quite average:
Values
Walker Buehler is in play as an SP2 option on DraftKings with his 78% Bargain Rating. He faces a pedestrian Marlins team whose projected lineup has a 28.1% strikeout rate and .271 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months. Buehler has been solid this season, averaging a +7.52 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 100% Consistency. Further, he’s sporting an excellent 8.4 K Prediction. Overall, he’s in a favorable spot since the Dodgers check in as -151 moneyline favorites, and the Marlins are implied for just 3.4 runs. Pitchers with comparable salaries, metrics, and Vegas data have historically been good values on DraftKings, albeit with massive ownership:
In tournaments, Caleb Smith could be an option. While the Marlins are +139 underdogs, Smith owns an excellent K Prediction (8.1), and the projected Dodgers lineup owns a strikeout rate of 25%. Further, the Dodgers rank 26th in wRC+ against lefties this season. Pitchers with comparable K Predictions, salaries, and Vegas data have historically averaged a +1.01 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Fastballs
There is currently no Vegas data for this game, but Trevor Bauer has a 7.6 K Prediction against a projected Tigers lineup that owns a paltry .290 wOBA. The primary concern with Bauer is that he owns a recent 94-mph exit velocity and 54% hard-hit rate.
J.A. Happ is a -122 moneyline favorite against a Mets team implied for just 3.6 runs. Happ has a 7.2 K Prediction, but his last two starts have been subpar, as he’s gotten shelled for a combined 14 hits and 10 earned runs over 8.3 innings. He’ll certainly need to improve upon his 233-foot recent average distance to return value.
Miles Mikolas owns the second-highest salary on the early slate, but he doesn’t come with much of a ceiling as evidenced by his 4.6 K Prediction against a projected Twins lineup with a 23.1% strikeout rate and high .335 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months. The Cardinals are slight favorites (-126 moneyline), but the Twins are implied for a high 4.5 runs. The main thing Mikolas has going for him is that he’s a groundball pitcher (179-foot recent average distance) who can grind deep games. In each of his past four starts, he has pitched at least 6.2 innings. Pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and Vegas data have frequently failed to hit salary-based expectations:
There isn’t much for good pitching options on the early slate. Just different degrees of bad.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into daily fantasy lineups. The top early-slate five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Cardinals, who are implied for 5.1 runs:
Lance Lynn has struggled of late, posting an average distance of 221 feet with a 92-mph exit velocity and 40% hard-hit rate. It just so happens that Matt Carpenter has also struggled, posting a -3.08 DraftKings Plus/Minus over his past 10 games. Something has to give, right? Overall, Carpenter has hit righties well over the past 12 months with a .347 wOBA and .213 isolated power (ISO). Further, he has a recent average distance of 226 feet with a 93-mph exit velocity and very high 50% hard-hit rate. His +69 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) also suggests that he’s been incredibly unlucky thus far. Historically, hitters with comparable metrics, RBBLs, and implied run totals have averaged a +1.28 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
The top main-slate four-man FanDuel stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Cubs, who are implied for 4.8 runs:
The Cubs project to be popular against Brandon McCarthy, who has allowed 23 hits and 14 earned runs over his past two starts. Ben Zobrist will be on the positive side of his wOBA and ISO splits, while the 2-4 hitters all sport wOBAs above .359 and ISOs above .206 against righties over the past 12 months:
All four hitters enter this game in solid form: Each one has a recent batted-ball average distance of 210 feet along with an exit velocity in excess of 90 mph. Hitters with comparable data and implied run totals have historically averaged a +1.52 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Other Batters
Brandon Belt will take on Reds righty Matt Harvey: Belt has crushed righties over the past 12 months, as he owns a .396 wOBA and .252 ISO. Further, Belt boasts some of the best recent batted-ball data on the slate with a 264-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity, and 53% hard-hit rate. Hitters with comparable batted-ball data have historically averaged a +1.39 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Travis Shaw draws Diamondbacks righty Matt Koch, who has some atrocious recent batted-ball data with a 95-mph exit velocity and 50% hard-hit rate. Meanwhile, Shaw sports a 93-mph exit velocity and 43% hard-hit rate, and he owns a .391 wOBA and .265 ISO against righties over the past 12 months. Shaw’s .112 wOBA differential is among the highest on the early slate.
The Cubs-Braves game will likely be popular and rightfully so, as it features the teams with the second- and third-highest implied totals on the slate. Ronald Acuna and Freddie Freeman are seemingly in good spots, as they are on the positive side of their wOBA splits and sport ISOs of at least .224. Further, each has an exit velocity of at least 94 mph. Hitters with comparable metrics and implied totals have historically averaged a +1.32 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Enrique Hernandez is projected to hit from the No. 2 spot against Marlins lefty Caleb Smith, and he’s smashed lefties over the past 12 months with a .371 wOBA and .244 ISO. With a 70% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, he’s also affordable. Hernandez could be an intriguing GPP option, as he owns one of the highest RBBLs (+59) on the slate. Hitters near the top of the order with comparable RBBLs have historically averaged a +1.39 FanDuel Plus/Minus an ownership of 6.6%.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant
Photo Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
