The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a split-slate: We have a four-game early slate starting at 2:10 p.m. ET and a nine-game FanDuel and eight-game DraftKings main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slates feature a lot of pitching talent, but there’s a clear-cut trio at the top:
Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander both pitch on the early slate, and both have been fantastic to start the season: Scherzer has averaged a Plus/Minus of +16.23 on FanDuel through his first five starts while Verlander has averaged a Plus/Minus of +11.69. Both pitchers have also posted impressive Statcast data over their two previous starts, with Scherzer owning a distance differential of -12 feet and Verlander owning a distance differential of -11.
The one area where Verlander has a clear edge is Vegas data. He’s a -213 favorite against the Los Angeles Angels, and pitchers with comparable moneyline odds have historically smashed:
That said, his opponent implied team total of 3.2 runs is actually higher than Scherzer’s (3.1).
If you can get past the moneyline odds, Scherzer appears to have the edge in most of the other categories. He leads all pitchers with a K Prediction of 9.4 vs. the San Francisco Giants, and that mark absolutely dwarfs Verlander’s prediction (5.9). Pitching in San Francisco also rewards Scherzer with a Park Factor of 94, and pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Park Factors have been elite options on FanDuel (per the Trends tool):
Scherzer has crushed in his two previous trips to AT&T Park as a member of the Nationals, averaging 57.5 FanDuel points and a Plus/Minus of +20.10. He’s also the better value on FanDuel, where he leads all early pitchers with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Clayton Kershaw is in his own tier on the main slate. In addition to being one of the best pitchers in the history of the league, he has an elite matchup vs. the Miami Marlins. Their projected lineup has posted a .283 wOBA and 31.2% strikeout rate against left-handers over the past 12 months, and Kershaw has some ridiculous Vegas data: -345 moneyline odds and 2.4-run opponent implied total. Those are the best marks we’ve seen this season, and pitchers with comparable marks have historically smashed on DraftKings:
Only four pitchers have matched that trend in our database — Kershaw (x8), Corey Kluber (x3), Jake Arrieta (x2), and Alex Wood (x1) — which goes to show just how rare of a spot he is in.
Kershaw also leads all pitchers on the main slate with a K Prediction of 9.0, which makes fading him a tough proposition. The one potential drawback is his massive $14,000 salary on DraftKings, but Kershaw has historically provided a Plus/Minus of +6.76 and a Consistency Rating of 72.2% with comparable salaries. He’s close to a no-brainer for cash games on FanDuel, where his $11,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Values
Zack Greinke is a slight underdog on the road against Arrieta and the Phillies, but he has a lot of upside in the matchup. The projected Phillies lineup has struck out in 28.3% of at-bats against right-handers over the past 12 months, and Greinke has posted a K/9 of 9.72 over the same time frame. His K Prediction of 8.5 trails only Kershaw’s on today’s slate. He’s also in good recent form, posting a distance distance differential of -18 feet over his past two starts, and pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically been awesome options on DraftKings:
Unfortunately, the weather in Philly could be a concern: There’s currently a 45% chance of precipitation at game time. You’ll need to monitor the weather situation before locking him into your lineup.
Jameson Taillon is only available on FanDuel, but his Vegas data makes him intriguing vs. the Tigers. He trails only Kershaw in both moneyline odds (-200) and opponent implied team total (3.1 runs), and the projected Tigers lineup has a wOBA of just .278 against right-handers over the past year. He’s also posted an average distance of just 158 feet over his past two starts, which represents a differential of -37 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Even so, his lack of strikeout upside makes him tough to target in GPPs. He’s tallied just five total strikeouts over his past two starts, and his K Prediction of 4.9 doesn’t provide much optimism for improvement in that department today.
Fastballs
Jake Arrieta: He’s a slight favorite opposing Greinke, but what really stands out for him is his recent Statcast data. He’s posted an average distance of just 162 feet over his past two starts, resulting in a slate-high distance differential of -42 feet.
Eduardo Rodriguez: He’s a -125 favorite against the Toronto Blue Jays, and his K Prediction of 7.4 is tied for third on the main slate. He’s a viable SP2 option on DraftKings at just $7,600.
Jon Gray: He’s pitching at Coors, but that surprisingly hasn’t hindered him in the past. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +1.26 at home vs. +0.58 on the road, and his K Prediction of 8.2 ranks second.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Chicago White Sox:
Their implied team total of 4.4 runs ranks just fifth out of the eight teams on the early slate, so their ownership shouldn’t be high, and they’re underpriced on DraftKings: Their Team Value Rating of 75 is tied for second. On a slate with a couple of stud pitchers available, that could be important.
They’re taking on Mariners right-hander Felix Hernandez, who has been a shell of his former dominant self over the past 12 months. He’s allowed a HR/9 of 1.78, and his average distance of 227 feet over the past 15 days is among the worst marks on the slate.
Yoan Moncada stands out for the Sox, as he’s posted a .341 wOBA and .205 ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months. He’s also hit the ball well recently, posting a distance differential of +15 feet. He should be in consideration regardless of whether you’re stacking the White Sox.
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
Their implied team total of 4.7 runs ranks fourth on the main slate, and they’re taking on Marlins right-hander Trevor Richards. He’s posted a dismal 1.75 WHIP over the past 12 months, and his average distance of 227 feet over his past two starts represents a differential of +21 feet when compared to his 12-month average. The stacked batters are also in good recent form: Each of them owns a positive distance differential over the past 15 days:
Other Batters
A.J. Pollock continues to smoke the baseball. He’s posted an average distance of 257 feet over the past 15 days, resulting in a distance differential of +47 feet when compared to his 12-month average. He should have minimal ownership against Arrieta, but he offers solid upside given his recent form.
Jose Martinez is taking on Mets left-hander Steven Matz, which puts him on the positive side of his batting splits. He’s crushed lefties over the past year with a .513 wOBA and .453 ISO, and Matz has allowed a HR/9 of 1.83 over the same time frame.
Matt Olson is also on the positive side of his batting splits against Rangers right-hander Doug Fister. He’s posted a wOBA of .463 and an ISO of .411 over the past 12 months, and his $2,900 salary on FanDuel is accompanied by a Bargain Rating of 97%. He’s a strong option on the early slate.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Clayton Kershaw
Photo Credit: Richard Mackson-USA Today Sports
