The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a 13-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Three pitchers stand out above the rest on DraftKings:
- Chris Sale (L) $13,600, BOS vs. TOR
- Jacob deGrom (R) $13,500, NYM vs. MIA
- Michael Foltynewicz (R) $11,200, ATL @ SF
Sale will be making his return from the disabled list vs. the Toronto Blue Jays. He had been dominant prior to going down with a shoulder injury, posting an average Plus/Minus of +12.15 over his past 10 starts on DraftKings, but he’s not on the fantasy radar today. He’s expected to throw only two innings before giving way to Nathan Eovaldi, as the Red Sox will look to work him back slowly with the AL East comfortably in hand. He’s not expected to pitch a full workload for the rest of the regular season, so you’ll likely have to wait until the playoffs before you can comfortably roster Sale again.
Let’s try this again, shall we? deGrom is scheduled to pitch for the third straight game after the Mets have been rained out each of the past two days. All the same things that made deGrom such a great play on those days still ring true today: He’s arguably the best pitcher in baseball and has a great matchup vs. the Miami Marlins. Their projected lineup has struggled to a .280 wOBA and 25.0% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months.
That said, his Vegas data isn’t as elite as you might expect: His opponent implied team total of 3.7 runs is tied for fourth, while his moneyline odds of -139 rank fifth. He does make up for it with an excellent K Prediction of 8.6, and he also sports a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -13 feet. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.41 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
As good as deGrom has been this season, Foltynewicz might actually be the preferred option on today’s slate. He has arguably the best matchup possible vs. the San Francisco Giants, who have been absolutely terrible offensively over the past two weeks. They’ve posted a wOBA of .268 and strikeout rate of 28.2% against right-handers over that time frame and have averaged just 2.85 runs per game. Unsurprisingly, Folty’s implied team total of 3.5 runs is one of the top marks on the slate.
In addition to his Vegas data, Folty owns a K Prediction of 7.8 and 15-day/12-month distance differential of -10 feet. Pitching in San Francisco also rewards him with an elite Park Factor of 95, so it’s hard to find any reason not to back him on today’s slate.
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Values
Marco Gonzales is dirt cheap at $5,400 on DraftKings and has an excellent matchup vs. the San Diego Padres. Their projected lineup owns a .306 wOBA and 25.9% strikeout rate against left-handers over the past 12 months, and they’re implied for just 3.3 runs. He leads all pitchers with 10 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and pitchers in his salary range with a comparable number of Pro Trends have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.46 and Consistency Rating of 57.9%. Unfortunately, Gonzales is another pitcher coming off the disabled list, so there is some risk that he could be limited.
Brad Keller is another cheap option with upside. He’s priced at just $5,700 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96%, and he has a nice matchup vs. the Kansas City Royals. They’ve averaged the second-fewest runs per game this season, and their projected lineup has struggled to a 26.2% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. Keller also enters today’s contest in good recent form, limiting his past two opponents to an average exit velocity of 89 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 29%.
Miles Mikolas could be an interesting buy-low option on today’s slate. He’s seen a salary decrease of $1,300 on FanDuel over his past four starts, but his Statcast data from his past two is excellent: 182-foot distance, 88 mph exit velocity, and 19% hard-hit rate. His fantasy upside is capped by his lack of strikeout upside – he’s posted a K/9 of just 6.29 over the past 12 months – but only two pitchers on today’s slate own a K Prediction above 6.5. This could be a good day to lock in his safety in a strong matchup vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Fastballs
Dylan Covey: He was demoted to the bullpen after a string of bad performances but will be making a spot start today vs. the Royals. He’s been much better out of the bullpen, posting a distance differential of -23 feet, exit velocity differential of -5 mph, and hard-hit differential of -15 percentage points.
Zack Greinke: He’s obviously much more talented than his $8,000 salary on DraftKings indicates, but he’s taking the mound in the worst pitching environment in baseball. He owns an opponent implied team total of 5.1 runs on the road vs. the Rockies, but he does have upside at what should be low ownership.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top-rated five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
- 1. A.J. Pollock (R)
- 2. Eduardo Escobar (S)
- 4. Paul Goldschmidt (R)
- 5. Daniel Descalso (L)
- 8. Jeff Mathis (R)
Total Salary: $22,900
The Diamondbacks lead all teams with an implied team total of 5.5 runs, which is not surprising since they’re playing at Coors Field. They have an exploitable matchup vs. Rockies right-hander Antonio Senzatela, who has allowed opposing batters to average a wOBA of .383 when pitching at home. He’s also underperformed his 12-month Statcast data over his past two starts, despite the fact that those games have come against offensively-challenged teams in the Padres and Giants.
Arizona will likely be a popular stack target, so projected No. 8 hitter Jeff Mathis could be an important differentiator. His Statcast data from his past five games is incredible, particularly his average distance of 321 feet. He owns a whopping 15 Pro Trends, and even batters in the bottom third of the order have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.76 with a comparable number of Pro Trends. He looks like a steal at just $2,700.
If you’re looking for a cheaper option, consider the Tampa Bay Rays. They own one of the top non-Coors stacks on FanDuel:
- 2. Joey Wendle (L)
- 3. Tommy Pham (R)
- 4. Ji-Man Choi (S)
- 5. Kevin Kiermaier (L)
Total Salary: $12,200
Their implied team total of 4.0 runs is one of the lower marks on the slate, but their Team Value Rating of 69 suggests they still have value at their current salaries: Wendle, Pham, and Kiermaier all have Bargain Ratings of at least 90%. They also collectively enter today’s contest in good recent form, with Pham, Choi, and Kiermaier all owning a positive distance differential over the past 15 days.
Other Batters
Ramon Laureano has an excellent matchup vs. Orioles righty Alex Cobb, who has pitched to a 4.97 ERA this season. Laureano has fared extremely well against right-handers over the past 12 months, owning a .417 wOBA and .328 ISO, and he’s posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +10 feet. He looks like one of the best values of the day on FanDuel, where his $3,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Trevor Story has entered into the NL MVP discussion with his recent play and has averaged a sparkling +8.74 Plus/Minus on FanDuel over his past 10 games. He’s absolutely smoked the baseball over the past 15 days, averaging a 250-foot distance, 95 mph exit velocity, and 54% hard-hit rate. He could see reduced ownership against Greinke, but he’s swinging the bat as well as anyone in baseball at the moment.
Coors Field will likely draw most of the attention for people who are paying up for batters, which makes Mookie Betts an intriguing target. He’s on the positive side of his batting splits against Blue Jays left-hander Ryan Borucki, and Betts has posted a ridiculous .512 wOBA and .390 ISO against southpaws over the past 12 months. The only concern is the weather, which currently calls for a 32% chance of precipitation at game time.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Michael Foltynewicz
Photo credit: Jason Getz-USA Today Sports
