The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a 15 game main slate starting at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are four pitchers today with salaries of at least $10,400 on DraftKings:
Jacob deGrom leads the slate with a $12,600 price tag, and he has an excellent matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies. Their .310 wOBA against right-handed pitchers is the fifth-worst mark in the league, and their implied team total of 3.4 runs is the lowest mark on the slate. deGrom is also a solid favorite with -192 moneyline odds, and pitchers with comparable Vegas data have been solid bets on DraftKings (per the Trends Tool):
The Phillies’ projected lineup also has a strikeout rate of 27.1 percent against right-handers over the past 12 months, and deGrom is one of the top strikeout pitchers in baseball. His K Prediction of 9.4 is the second-best mark on the slate, and factoring a comparable K Prediction into the above trend increases the Plus/Minus to +3.67.
deGrom is coming off a poor outing by his standards, but his recent Statcast data is encouraging. He’s posted an average distance of 191 feet, exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 26 percent over his last two starts, all of which are superior to his 12-month averages. He also leads the slate with nine Pro Trends on DraftKings.
While none of the other stud pitchers can match deGrom across the board, each one is intriguing for one reason or another. Steven Strasburg is the closest deGrom facsimile in Vegas data, owning an opponent implied team total of 3.7 runs and moneyline odds of -175. He also benefits from a Park Factor of 85 due to his matchup in Miami, and pitchers with comparable numbers in all three categories have been solid on FanDuel:
The big difference for Strasburg is his K Prediction. The Marlins have been a much tougher team to strikeout — their projected lineup has a splits-adjusted K rate of 19.4 percent — resulting in a mediocre K Prediction of just 6.4. That limits his upside for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Justin Verlander and Zach Greinke don’t have the same Vegas data as their high priced counterparts, but that should result in lower ownership for both. Verlander is making his debut for the Houston Astros, and his Statcast data over his last two starts has been dominant: 177-foot batted ball distance, 85 mile-per-hour exit velocity, 26 percent hard hit rate. His recent distance represents a differential of -43 feet when compared to his 12-month average, and a distance differential that large has historically been significant on DraftKings:
Greinke’s recent distance differential of -7 feet isn’t nearly as good as Verlander’s, but Greinke has the third-best K Prediction of the day at 8.0. Combining those two factors results in a historical Plus/Minus of +2.87 on DraftKings, and pitching on the road in Los Angeles gets him out of the hitter’s haven of Chase Field. Pivoting off deGrom to Verlander or Greinke gives you a much greater chance of having unique combinations of players, which Pro Subscribers can review using the new DFS Contest Dashboard.
Values
The largest favorite of the day is Danny Salazar, with massive -259 moneyline odds in his matchup against the Chicago White Sox, who have been among the worst hitting teams in baseball: Their projected lineup has a 12-month splits-adjusted wOBA of .293 and strikeout rate of 28.5 percent, and their implied team total of 3.6 runs is the second-worst mark on the slate. Salazar also has a dominant past year K/9 of 12.84, and against this strikeout-prone team he has a K Prediction of 10.1. Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions and moneyline odds have been incredible on FanDuel:
While Salazar isn’t cheap at $9,400, he’s a massive bargain compared to the previous players who have matched the above trend. Only one of the historical comps had a salary lower than $10,800, which means Salazar has more room for upside than most of those players. He deserves t0 be the highest-owned pitcher on the slate, but he might not be because of deGrom.
Michael Wacha gets the top matchup for pitchers today against the San Diego Padres, and he’s dirt-cheap on DraftKings at only $6,900. He has a K Prediction of 7.5 in this matchup, and pitchers with comparable K Predictions against the Padres have historically smashed:
He should be the go-to option for those paying down at pitcher.
Fastballs
Eduardo Rodridguez: He offers one of the top combinations of strikeout potential (6.8 K Prediction), batted-ball profile (-16 distance differential), and moneyline odds (-184) on today’s slate. Combining all three of those factors results in a historical Plus/Minus of +3.75 on DraftKings, where he’s affordable at just $6,600.
Kyle Hendricks: He’s tied with Strasburg for the third-best opponent implied team total at 3.7 runs, and he’s a solid favorite with -168 moneyline odds. Pitchers with comparable Vegas data have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.03 on FanDuel.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. We’ve recently added FantasyDraft Tools to our MLB products: Check out Bryan Mears’ introductory piece for all the details. FantasyDraft allows you to stack up to six batters from the same team. The top six-man stack on today’s slate using the Bales Model belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays:
Per the Vegas Dashboard, the Rays are tied for sixth on today’s slate with an implied team total of 5.2 runs, well behind teams like the Rockies, Indians, and Red Sox. The Rays do represent a strong value at the current salaries, however, with all six of the stacked batters owning Bargain Ratings of at least 81 percent on FantasyDraft. They all should also benefit from facing Twins right-hander Bartolo Colon, with each batter on the positive side of his batting splits:
Colon has been nothing short of a disaster this season, owning a 6.25 ERA between the Twins and Braves, and his recent distance of 214 feet represents a slight increase when compared to his 12-month average. Kevin Kiermaier, Evan Longoria, Logan Morrison, and Corey Dickerson all have distance differentials of at least +17 feet over the last 15 days, so this is a combination of hitters in good recent form and a pitcher who’s been poor all season.
The Rays also grade out as the top five-man stack on DraftKings, so let’s instead focus on the top stack involving Coors Field:
The Rockies’ implied team total of 6.9 runs is tops on the day by nearly a full run, so they should be popular. The Rockies batters are always popular at home, with an average ownership of 10.4 percent on DraftKings, but when their implied team total is this high that figure nearly doubles. We’ve seen a lot of people recently opt for the Rockies bats over stud pitchers (per the Ownership Dashboard), and with some good cheap throwers available that could be the case again today.
Trevor Story is projected to bat seventh, and he could be a strong diversifying option for Rockies stacks. He’s destroyed left-handed pitchers with a .404 wOBA and .333 ISO over the past 12 months, and he’s in good recent form with a distance differential of +23 feet over his last 11 games. His production has yet to reflect his Statcast data — he has an average Plus/Minus of -1.18 over his last 10 games — and that should keep his ownership reasonable.
Batters
Trea Turner has recently come off the disabled list but he’s showing no signs of rust. He has distance, exit velocity, and hard hit differentials of +28 feet, +2 miles per hour, and +11 percentage points, and leadoff hitters with comparable differentials have a historical DraftKings Plus/Minus of +1.42.
JD Martinez has hit five homers in his last two games, so it’s no surprise that his recent Statcast data is good. What is surprising, however, is his Recent Batted Ball Luck of +4, suggesting that his average Plus/Minus of +7.09 over his last 10 games hasn’t been the result of luck. He’s facing a left-handed pitcher today in Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Martinez has crushed lefties to the tune of a .493 wOBA and .424 ISO over the past 12 months.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
