The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a 15-game main slate starting at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are plenty of good pitchers on today’s slate, but two stand out above the rest on FanDuel:
Chris Sale has been dominant all season, and he’s coming off one of his best starts of the year: eight innings, four hits, zero runs, 13 strikeouts, and a +35.47 FanDuel Plus/Minus. His matchup today against the Blue Jays is average, but he still owns elite numbers in both opponent implied team total (3.2 runs) and moneyline odds (-230). Pitchers with comparable numbers in both categories have historically dominated on FanDuel (per the Trends tool):
Where Sale has really made his money is with the strikeout. He has 300 this year through 209.1 innings pitched, and his 12-month K/9 of 12.86 is the top mark on the slate. The Blue Jays’ projected lineup has a 12-month splits-adjusted K rate of 26.4 percent, and Sale’s resulting K Prediction of 9.5 ranks first among today’s pitchers.
Despite his recent fantasy success, Sale’s underlying Statcast data is concerning. He’s allowed a hard hit rate of 55 percent over his last two starts, which represents a differential of +26 percentage points compared to his 12-month average. That’s the worst mark on the slate by a considerable margin, and pitchers with a comparable hard hit rate have a historical Plus/Minus of -3.80 on FanDuel.
Still, he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball and has a massive ceiling. Even if his Statcast data is subpar, it likely matters less for him than for other pitchers since he typically limits the amount of balls put in play. It’s especially hard to consider fading Sale on FanDuel, where he has the second-highest Bargain Rating on the slate at 93 percent. He will probably be the highest-owned of today’s pitchers; Pro subscribers can review all ownership data using the DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Robbie Ray is coming off a dreadful start in San Diego against the Padres, but he’s still been one of the best pitchers on DraftKings over his last 10 starts:
Like Sale, Ray is a master strikeout artist, and his K Prediction of 9.0 ranks second on the slate. He’s a strong -205 favorite against the San Francisco Giants, who have posted the second-worst wOBA this season against left-handed pitchers. Sale is also in solid recent form, owning a distance differential of -9 feet over his last two starts. Pitchers with comparable K Predictions, moneyline odds, and distance differentials have historically been excellent values on DraftKings:
Those pitchers have had an average ownership of 41.4 percent, and Ray will likely be owned at a much lower rate given the presence of Sale on the slate. That increases his appeal in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Values
Despite being significantly cheaper than both Sale and Ray, Alex Wood has the top Vegas data on the slate. His moneyline odds of -230 are tied with Sale’s, while his opponent implied team total of 3.0 runs is slightly superior. Pitchers with comparable marks have historically been an excellent source of value:
He gets a matchup against the San Diego Padres, who have the second-worst wOBA this season against left-handed pitchers. Their projected lineup also has the second-highest splits-adjusted K rate on the slate at 29.1 percent, resulting in a K Prediction of 8.1 for Wood.
Although his $9,700 price tag on DraftKings can still be considered a value, Wood’s salary represents an increase of $1,700 over his last two starts. The price increase is a little concerning given Wood’s inability to pitch deep into games this season, evidenced by his average pitch count of 86 over his last two starts. Still, the matchup against the Padres is likely worth the price tag. He’s managed to return value consistently when comparably priced this season:
James Paxton doesn’t possess the same Vegas data as any of the aforementioned pitchers, but he does have similar strikeout upside at just $7,600 on DraftKings. His K Prediction of 8.9 is the third-best mark on the slate, and pitchers with comparable K Predictions and salaries have historically exceeded value:
Paxton is making just his third start since coming off the disabled list, but he did increase his pitch count from 50 to 73 in his last outing. He’ll likely see another bump today, although he’ll probably remain limited in some capacity.
Finally, we have to address Bartolo Colon on FanDuel. They occasionally like to have fun with their pricing, and they’ve done that today by pricing the 44-year-old right-hander down to just $44 in what could possibly be his last start of the regular season. By rostering him you can essentially pair him with whatever bats you’d like, including the heart of the order at Coors Field. Still, that doesn’t seem like a viable strategy: He’s in terrible recent form, owning a distance differential of +37 feet over his last two starts, and the difference in quality at the hitter spots likely won’t make up for the difference in production at pitcher. He should have higher ownership than if he were normally priced, which only increases the appeal of a fade.
Fastballs
Gio Gonzalez: He has an excellent matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies, resulting in strong marks in moneyline odds (-155), opponent implied team total (4.0 runs), and K Prediction (8.1). He’d likely rate higher in our MLB Models if not for his dreadful recent Statcast data, especially his 15-day/12-month distance differential of +38. Still, he has upside for GPPs and gets umpire Roberto Ortiz behind the plate, who has historically been the third-most friendly umpire for pitchers in terms of Plus/Minus added on DraftKings.
Dinelson Lamet: He’s typically a cheap source of strikeout upside, and that’s the case again today. He has a K Prediction of 8.8 at just $7,200 on DraftKings and has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last seven games.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. FantasyDraft allows you to roster up to six batters from the same team, and the top-rated six-man stack on today’s slate (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
Per the Vegas Dashboard, the Diamondbacks are implied for 5.5 runs today at home in Chase Field. Still, that total ranks only fifth on today’s slate and lags significantly behind the Rockies’ total of 6.4 runs at Coors Field. They’re facing Giants left-hander Matt Moore, who has been a disaster when pitching outside of San Francisco this season: He’s posted a 1.69 WHIP and a 6.51 ERA. The Diamondbacks are relatively underpriced on FantasyDraft as well, with four of the stacked batters owning Bargain Ratings of at least 91 percent:
J.D. Martinez should enjoy his matchup today with Moore, as he has destroyed left-handers to the tune of a .530 wOBA and .500 ISO over the past 12 months. He’s also in the best recent form of the stacked batters, owning 15-day/12-month distance, exit velocity, and hard hit differentials of +17 feet, +2 miles per hour, and +8 percent points, respectively. Chris Iannetta is another appealing option, especially at just $7,800. He homered against a left-handed pitcher two games ago and has a distance differential of +17 feet over his last eight games.
On DraftKings, the top-rated stack belongs to the Washington Nationals:
The Nationals are implied for 5.1 runs on today’s slate, and they have massive upside against Phillies right-hander Jake Thompson. Thompson has dreadful past-year marks in both WHIP (1.61) and HR/9 (1.75), and the Nats are collectively in great recent form:
It’s rare to see three teammates all with distance differentials of +20 feet or more, but that’s the case with the Nationals today. Bryce Harper has yet to play since coming off the disabled list, and manager Dusty Baker said he’s unsure about Harper’s status for today’s game. With or without Harper, the Nats look like a solid contrarian stack, and you can review the ownership dynamics of a particular stack using the new DFS Contests Dashboard.
Batters
Josh Reddick is in an interesting situation today facing Rangers left-hander Cole Hamels. On one hand, Reddick has historically struggled with left-handed pitchers as a left-handed batter, owning an ISO of just .063. However, he’s in great recent form and owns a slate-high 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings at $4,200. Lefty batters in similar situations have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.81, and, despite their strong production, they have been owned at an average of just 5.8 percent.
Another left-handed batter facing a lefty today is Tigers projected cleanup hitter Efren Navarro. Despite owning an average Plus/Minus of just -0.81 over his last eight games, Navarro has posted a ridiculous Statcast line over that time frame, averaging a 310-foot distance, 100 MPH exit velocity, and 58 percent hard hit rate. That has resulted in a Recent Batted Ball Luck score of +85 on DraftKings, and he’s priced at only $2,500 despite the premium spot in the order.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our MLB news blurbs:
