The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
The 15-game main slate begins at 7:05 pm ET. Rain could affect many games on the East Coast this evening.
Pitchers
Studs
Three pitchers cross the $10,000 threshold on DraftKings, and four pitchers — all of whom have K Predictions of at least 8.0 — are priced above $9,000 on FanDuel:
Max Scherzer has failed to meet salary-based expectations in five of his last nine starts, including his last three. His most recent start was particularly bad, allowing seven runs versus tonight’s opponent in the Braves. In that game, he had a 9.2 K Prediction, unmatched -315 moneyline odds, 12 percent recent hard hit rate, and 82 MPH recent exit velocity allowed. Six days later, his K Prediction has improved by one full point, but the Nationals’ moneyline has dropped to -204.
Scherzer landed on the disabled list in mid-August due to neck stiffness, and since returning he’s allowed a .304 wOBA and reduced his SO/9 rate to 9.8 — down from a 12-month average of 12.201. It’s unclear if he’s still dealing with a neck issue four weeks later. His velocity has declined slightly during his past two outings, but his recent Statcast data aligns with his 12-month values.
Scherzer will continue to provide elite guaranteed prize pool (GPP) upside, and he’s facing a projected Braves lineup with the lowest wOBA and highest SO/AB rate among offenses in this slate. When he’s achieved a similar K Prediction to tonight’s mark, he’s been excellent:
Scherzer is one of six pitchers facing a team implied to score fewer than 4.0 runs, and his recent struggles may reduce his overall ownership in all formats, which Pro subscribers can review shortly after lineups lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Yu Darvish and Zack Godley possess similar data with a few differences that favor Godley. Darvish opposes a Phillies team implied to score 3.6 runs, yet they’ve averaged 5.13 runs at home since the All-Star break and tallied four runs off Clayton Kershaw last night. Godley has the vastly superior 80 Park Factor and 60 percent recent ground ball rate. He’s $300 cheaper than Darvish on DraftKings but $300 more than Darvish on FanDuel. Darvish is dealing with a higher chance of precipitation, which could reduce his workload in the event of a mid-game delay.
Godley costs season-highs of $11,100 on DraftKings and $9,600 on FanDuel, but when he faced the Padres less than two weeks ago, he supplied 27.35 DraftKings points in 7.0 innings. Since the All-Star break, the Padres have recorded the third-lowest wOBA and sixth-highest strikeout percentage against right-handed pitchers. During the same period, righties have been solid investments against the Padres, and nine of the last 10 starters have exceeded salary-based expectations against them:
Godley’s salary may keep his ownership low, but he’s facing a projected lineup with one hitter who has a positive batted ball distance differential and a recent fly ball and hard hit rate greater than 40 percent. Godley also claims a season-high 8.7 K Prediction — the second-highest on the slate and his highest of the season by a full point.
Darvish has been inconsistent since joining the Dodgers, averaging a -0.18 DraftKings Plus/Minus in six starts while elevating his SO/9 rate to 10.8 — the 12th-highest among qualified starters and up from 9.7 prior to the trade. He’s failed to record double-digit strikeouts since his first two starts in a Dodgers uniform, and he’s allowed at least five runs in two of his last three outings.
Darvish is in a weird salary spot tonight, and that could make him a slightly contrarian option. His K Prediction and opponent implied run total are 0.1 points less than Godley’s. However, right-handed road pitchers have still provided value against the Phillies despite their second-half resurgence, and some rather dubious individuals– Daniel Mengden, Julio Teheran, and R.A. Dickey, to name a few — have exceeded 50 FanDuel points against the Phillies over the past month.
Values
Among pitchers with double-digit home starts this season, Aaron Nola ranks fourth in average DraftKings production:
Nola hasn’t provided less than 26.15 DraftKings points in his last eight home starts, although only once in 11 home starts has he faced a team with an implied total greater than 4.2, and the Dodgers’ present implied total is 4.5. Rain could be an issue at Citizens Bank Park, but the wind is projected to blow 13 MPH toward home plate — a rather fortuitous break for pitchers. Nola has limited hitters to a slate-low 10 percent recent hard hit rate, and he’s one of eight pitchers on the slate with a recent fly ball rate allowed lower than 25 percent. Since the All-Star break, right-handed starters have averaged a +1.11 DraftKings Plus/Minus against the Dodgers, who have ranked first in fly ball rate and hard hit contact during that span. Fortunately, they’ve tailed off precipitously in September, dropping to a .289 wOBA, ninth in hard hit contact, and 11th in fly ball rate.
In 47 home starts since the beginning of 2015, Chris Archer has cost less than $8,000 on DraftKings only four times including tonight. Among qualified starters, Archer has the second-highest home (12.26) and second half (12.51) SO/9 rates — second to only Corey Kluber. Archer is facing a Cubs squad presently implied to score 3.9 runs, and he’s limited hitters to an 18 percent fly ball rate during his last two starts. Pitchers with a similar K Prediction and Park Factor — a trend for which Godley qualifies as well — have historically averaged a +2.02 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 58.5 percent Consistency Rating. Archer leads all pitchers with 19 matches, and he’s been a remarkable investment at what normally is a salary north of $10,000:
Fastballs
CC Sabathia: He’s the cheapest pitcher facing a team implied to score less than 4.0 runs, but the projected weather at Yankee Stadium will limit Sabathia ownership to GPPs. He’s limited hitters to an 18 percent fly ball rate and 176-foot batted ball distance in his last two starts. Home left-handed starters have averaged a +2.28 DraftKings Plus/Minus against the Twins this year, and Jaime Garcia lit them up for nine strikeouts in 5.2 innings last night.
Kevin Gausman: He remains inconsistent as ever, but he’s exceeded 23.0 DraftKings points in eight of his last 11 starts — including a 27.05-point DraftKings performance against the Red Sox last month. He won’t pop in Models, but his upside is on par with many of the pitchers on the slate.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The top-rated FantasyDraft stack in the Bales Model belongs to the Athletics, a team presently implied to score a slate-high 5.6 runs:
Matt Olson, the projected sixth hitter, is the only one who costs more than $7,800, and he’s averaged a +6.20 FantasyDraft Plus/Minus over the last 10 games while exceeding salary-based expectations in eight of them. Only one hitter in the stack has a negative batted ball distance differential and a recent fly ball rate less than 40 percent. Left-hander Chad Bell hasn’t tossed more than 4.2 innings or 85 pitches in three starts since being promoted from the bullpen, and despite Oakland’s struggles against lefties this season, a short outing from Bell would translate into a lengthy duel with a bullpen that ranks last in strikeout rate and 28th with a 1.42 HR/9 rate. Light rain is presently in the forecast, but projected precipitation of 11 percent doesn’t warrant a straight fade of the Athletics hitters since a postponement appears unlikely.
The Reds, a team with a 4.8-run implied total and 62 DraftKings Team Value Rating, has the highest-rated stack in the CSURAM88 Model:
Jesse Winker is currently the highest-rated hitter in the model, and he leads all everyday players with a .235 wOBA differential and .192 ISO differential against right-handed pitchers. Cardinals right-hander Jack Flaherty has yet to pitch more than 5.0 innings in three career starts, and his WHIP (1.679) and HR/9 (2.061) rates rank in the bottom-three on the slate. He’s allowed all three homers to left-handed hitters, and his wOBA allowed is .099 points higher against lefties compared to righties in his limited action this season. There are just four teams implied to score at least 5.0 runs, which could flatten ownership across the board. Cincinnati is one of several areas that could experience precipitation this evening, but this stack is well positioned to take advantage of their opposition’s deficiencies.
Batters
Adam Rosales returns to Petco Park for the first time since changing teams in the offseason, and in 26 home games with the Padres, he averaged a +4.07 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 61.7 percent Consistency Rating. Rosales ranks fourth among shortstops with seven DraftKings Pro Trends and a 41 percent recent hard hit rate, and he costs only $2,600. Padres starter Travis Wood has allowed slate-high marks of a .703 wOBA and .586 ISO over the last 15 days, and he’s failed to last more than 5.0 innings in his last four starts. Rosales’ position at the end of the lineup limits his appeal, but he’ll offer plenty of value to utilize as a punt option.
Nolan Arenado is underpriced compared to his historical production at AT&T Park: +1.84 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 48.7 percent Consistency Rating and 4.2 percent GPP average ownership. The Rockies are presently implied to score only 4.1 runs on the road, but Arenado has supplied a +2.04 FanDuel Plus/Minus as a visitor with a similar Vegas total this season. He’s not highly-rated at his position in the Bales Model, but he’ll likely have low GPP ownership, and the Rockies are facing a pitcher in Johnny Cueto who has allowed a 224-foot batted ball distance and 39 percent hard hit rate in his last two outings.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
