The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a 14-game main slate starting at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are many good pitchers on today’s slate, but the top-two definitely stand out: Corey Kluber and Clayton Kershaw.
The Indians have won 19 straight games, and Kluber will take the mound today as an overwhelming favorite to extend that streak to 20. His -420 moneyline odds are the largest we’ve seen for a pitcher all season, and only six prior pitchers in our database have had odds of at least -350: Kershaw (five times), Max Scherzer (three times), Jake Arrieta (once), Yu Darvish (once), Alex Wood (once), and Carlos Carrasco (once, on yesterday’s slate). Unsurprisingly, those pitchers have historically been awesome values on FanDuel (per the Trends tool):
Kluber has been the preeminent strikeout pitcher among today’s starters, owning a slate-high K/9 of 11.98 over the past 12 months. Detroit has been below-average this season with a strikeout rate of 21.4 percent against right-handed pitchers, and Kluber’s resulting K Prediction of 9.6 is the top mark on the slate.
Additionally, Kluber has solid Statcast data from his last three starts, posting distance, exit velocity, and hard hit differentials of -9 feet, -1 MPH, and -2 percentage points. Those numbers are reflected in his dominant average Plus/Minus of +17.95 over his last 10 starts, and he’s also posted a Consistency Rating of 100 percent over that time frame. He deserves to be the highest-owned player on the slate, which can be reviewed using the DFS Ownership Dashboard.
As hot as the Indians have been recently, the Dodgers have been equally as cold. They became the first 90-win team ever to lose 10 games in a row, and their offense has averaged just 2.4 runs per game over that time frame. For that reason, Kershaw’s moneyline odds of -251 trail Kluber’s by a significant margin, despite the fact that Kershaw leads the slate with an opponent implied team total of 2.5 runs. An opponent implied team total that low is significant; pitchers with comparable totals have historically been excellent on DraftKings:
His matchup today against the San Francisco Giants is a bit of a double-edged sword for fantasy purposes. On one hand, they’ve been one of the worst offenses all season, and their projected lineup has a slate-low .280 wOBA split over the past 12 months. Facing the Giants in San Francisco also rewards Kershaw with a slate-high Park Factor of 94. On the other hand, despite the Giants’ lack of production against left-handers, they’ve actually been fairly successful in terms of putting the ball in play. Their projected lineup has the fifth-lowest splits-adjusted strikeout rate on the slate, and Kershaw’s resulting K Prediction of 6.7 is tied for only sixth among today’s pitchers.
Kershaw is coming off a rough outing last time out, allowing four earned runs, six hits, and three walks over just 3.2 innings pitched, but that belies solid recent Statcast data. He’s allowed an average batted ball distance of 185 feet, exit velocity of 86 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 29 percent over his last two starts, resulting in a Recent Batted Ball Luck score of +17. Kershaw should check in with relatively low ownership for his standards; his average ownership of 40.6 percent ranks first among all pitchers in our database.
Values
Two other pitchers stand out on this slate, albeit for different reasons. Jose Quintana is not exactly a value at $8,900 on FanDuel, but his Bargain Rating of 97 percent is the top mark on the slate. Despite being over $2,000 cheaper, he looks a lot like Kershaw today: -256 moneyline odds and a 6.7 K Prediction. Pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and odds have historically crushed:
Eduardo Rodriguez is cheap on DraftKings at only $6,700, and he offers more strikeout upside on today’s slate than any pitcher besides Kluber. He’s taking on an Oakland lineup that has a strikeout rate of 33.3 percent against lefties over the past 12 months, resulting in a K Prediction of 9.5 on today’s slate. Pitchers with comparable salaries and K Predictions have historically been strong options:
In addition to his strikeout upside, Rodriguez is also a -168 favorite and has posted 15-day/12-month distance, exit velocity, and hard hit differentials of -5 feet, -2 miles per hour, and -5 percentage points. His seven DraftKings Pro Trends are also tied with Kluber and Quintana for the most on today’s slate.
Fastballs
Sonny Gray: He’s been awesome since becoming a member of the Yankees, allowing more than two runs just once in seven starts. He has a great matchup against the Oakland Athletics, who have the third-worst wOBA and fourth-highest K rate against right-handed pitchers this season. His opponent implied team total of 3.7 runs trails just the marks of Kershaw and Kluber on today’s slate.
Lance Lynn: He disappointed a bit in his last start against the Padres, but that wasn’t due to the type of contact he allowed. His 167-foot average distance over his last two starts represents a differential of -35 feet compared to his 12-month average, and pitchers with comparable differentials have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.60 on DraftKings. Lynn is also a strong -171 favorite, and factoring comparable moneyline odds into the previous trend increases the Plus/Minus to +4.95. This game does lead the slate with a 27 percent chance of precipitation, so those looking to roster Lynn will need to monitor the weather situation prior to lineup lock.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top-rated five-man DraftKings stack using the Bales Model belongs to the Texas Rangers:
Per the Vegas Dashboard, the Rangers lead the slate with an implied team total of 5.9 runs and a Team Value Rating of 86. They’re taking on Mariners left-hander Marco Gonzales, who has a terrible past-year WHIP of 1.83 and HR/9 of 1.53, and his recent batted ball distance of 220 feet represents a differential of +8 feet compared to his 12-month average. The Rangers are also in good recent form, with all of the stacked batters except Joey Gallo owning a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +12 feet:
Projected No. 2 hitter Shin-Soo Choo leads the group with a differential of +34 feet, and batters with comparable distance differentials, implied team totals, and lineup spots have a historical Plus/Minus of +3.07. The Rangers will likely be a popular option on today’s slate given their implied team total, but avoiding their leadoff and cleanup hitters should increase the odds of stacking them in a contrarian manner. You can review the ownership dynamics for a particular stack using the new DFS Contests Dashboard.
We’ve recently added FantasyDraft tools to our Models, and they allow you to stack up to six batters from the same team. The top six-man stack on today’s slate belongs to the Seattle Mariners:
The Mariners are opposing Rangers right-hander Miguel Gonzalez, and their implied team total of 5.6 runs ranks third on the slate. The stacked batters are all relatively affordable given their implied team total, with each possessing a Bargain Rating of at least 84 percent, and facing a right-handed pitcher puts the majority of them on the positive side of their batting splits as well:
Mitch Haniger has been awesome from a fantasy perspective lately, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.83 over his last 10 games, and his Statcast data reflects his strong production. He’s posted distance, exit velocity, and hard hit differentials of +16 feet, +3 miles per hour, and +13 percentage points, and batters with comparable differentials and implied team totals have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.26 on FantasyDraft.
Batters
Matt Carpenter is priced all the way down to $3,400 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96 percent. He hasn’t exactly produced lately, with an average Plus/Minus of +0.31 over his last 10 games, but his underlying Statcast data is solid. His 252-foot batted ball distance represents a differential of +10 feet compared to his 12-month average, and leadoff hitters with comparable distances and Bargain Ratings have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.21 on DraftKings.
Jose Ramirez continues to rake on FanDuel:
He’s been priced up to $3,900 now, but that probably isn’t high enough; he still possesses a Bargain Rating of 99 percent. He also leads the slate with 10 Pro Trends, and the Indians’ implied team total of 5.5 runs ranks fourth on the slate.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
