The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday has a 14-game main slate that begins at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are only three pitchers today priced at $9,000 or higher on FanDuel:
Chris Archer leads the slate with an opponent implied total of 3.4 runs against the Toronto Blue Jays, who have dipped to 24th this season with a .313 team wOBA. He faced them in his last start in Toronto in a hitter’s park and dominated, posting 46.0 FanDuel points and 10 strikeouts across 7.0 innings pitched. Today he gets them at home in a pitcher’s park, where he comes with a high 81 Park Factor, and he’ll look to continue his solid recent play: Over his last 10 games, he’s averaged a +5.44 Plus/Minus with a 70 percent Consistency Rating. He does have some concerning recent batted ball metrics: Over his last two games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 205 feet and a hard hit rate of 45 percent. Still, he averaged a slate-high 108 pitches per game in those two contests, and his top SO/9 mark of 11.06 shows that he can put up a solid performance even while allowing a couple runs.
Most of the pitchers, including Archer, are cheap on FanDuel compared to DraftKings: At only $10,200 on FanDuel (compared to a slate-high $12,400 on DraftKings), he owns a high 98 percent Bargain Rating. Archer’s 7.3 K Prediction is a bit lower than one might expect given his past-year strikeout rate, but it is still the third-best mark in the slate. If you’re paying up a pitcher, Archer will likely be the guy to roster; he’s projected for a slate-high 26-30 percent ownership rate on DraftKings.
Pro subscribers can review ownership trends across GPPs of various buy-in levels after lineups lock via our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Masahiro Tanaka is hasn’t pitched since August 9, when he went just 4.0 innings against the Blue Jays; he was placed on the 10-day disabled list with shoulder inflammation and will be making his first start tonight against the Tigers. There hasn’t been any word on a pitch count, although that is certainly a risk even if no one explicitly talks about it. That will likely keep his ownership low, and he has upside if he’s fully healthy: Just three starts ago he struck out 14 batters in 8.0 innings pitched — a 73.0-point FanDuel outing. His Vegas data isn’t oustanding, but it’s fine: The Tigers are currently implied for 4.1 runs — the eighth-lowest mark in the slate — and Tanaka is a solid -180 moneyline favorite. His Statcast data suggests he was excellent before coming out of his last game: Across those 4.0 innings, he allowed a batted ball distance of 180 feet, an exit velocity of 85 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 16 percent. Take those marks with a grain of salt given the sample size, but it does show he was in good from prior to this aggravation.
Because of the value plays available, Archer’s presence in the slate, and Tanaka’s injury, he should have low ownership: He’s projected for just five to eight percent on FanDuel. The other ‘stud,’ Carlos Carrasco, could be in the same boat: He has a tough matchup against a Red Sox team whose projected lineup has a splits-adjusted .343 wOBA. Further, that game has a 45 percent chance of precipitation at first pitch. After lineup lock Pro subscribers can see how other DFS players chose to use Archer, Tanaka, and Carrasco by consulting our new DFS Contests Dashboard.
Values
Cardinals righty Lance Lynn is currently the highest-rated pitcher in the Bales Model for both sites, and he gets the benefit of facing the San Diego Padres. They’re a perfect matchup for a pitcher: They rank 29th in the league this season with a .299 team wOBA while also ranking second with a high 25.4 percent strikeout rate. Pitchers against the Padres this season have averaged a +2.6 Plus/Minus — easily the best mark in the league — and they’ve met salary-based expectations a whopping 61 percent of the time. If you’ve simply taken a pitcher against the Padres every day in cash games, you’ve likely done alright this year (per the MLB Trends tool):
Lynn predictably has excellent marks in almost every category tonight. His 7.2 K Prediction is a top-five mark, and he’s posted a +5.49 FanDuel Plus/Minus with an 80 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 games despite not exceeding six strikeouts in any of them:
His recent Statcast matches his recent form: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 181 feet, an exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 28 percent, and a hard hit rate of 35 percent. Vegas bettors seem to believe in him, too: Lynn is a nice -180 moneyline favorite, and the Padres are currently implied for just 3.6 runs. At $7,400 on DraftKings and $8,000 on FanDuel, Lynn should be a popular value play.
Something has gotten into Patrick Corbin:
He’s dominated of late, going for 25 strikeout over his last three games and scoring 30-plus DraftKings points in each of his last two, which came against good offenses in the Astros and Cubs. His Statcast data from those two games shows how elite he’s been: He allowed a batted ball distance of 164 feet, an exit velocity of 86 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 29 percent, and a hard hit rate of 26 percent. Those are studly marks, and Corbin deserves a hard look despite his average 1.429 past-year WHIP. While his 4.0 opponent implied run total is ‘just’ seventh in the slate, his 7.8 K Prediction is second. His salary has jumped up on both sites because of his recent play, but he’s still affordable on FanDuel, where his $8,700 price tag comes with a 77 percent Bargain Rating.
Fastball
Jeff Samardzija: He’s been unexciting of late, averaging a +0.58 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 50 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 starts. That said, he’s facing a Brewers squad that ranks first in the league with a 25.7 percent strikeout rate. Samardzija’s 8.2 K Prediction is the best in the slate.
Jimmy Nelson: He’s allowed 12 earned runs and 19 hits over his last two starts, but his Statcast data is oddly solid. Over that time frame, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 196 feet, an exit velocity of 85 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 30 percent. He has a nice matchup in San Francisco against a Giants squad that ranks dead last this season with a .296 team wOBA.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The highest-rated DraftKings stack (per the player ratings in the Bales Model) currently belongs to the Cleveland Indians:
The Indians are currently implied for 5.0 runs, which is high but tied for just the ninth-highest mark tonight. That said, they have a ton of upside against Boston righty Doug Fister, who was atrocious in his last start, allowing a batted ball distance of 250 feet, an exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 46 percent, and a hard hit rate of 46 percent. That’s bad news against someone like Jason Kipnis, who has averaged a batted ball distance of 236 feet and a fly ball rate of 50 percent over his last 11 games. This game has a decent chance of rain, and that could further lower the ownership levels of the Cleveland bats. As of now, they’re all implied for no more than two to four percent ownership; that’s intriguing for GPPs.
We have tools for FantasyDraft in Models, and I have a piece on FantasyDraft scoring, rosters, and strategy. FantasyDraft allows six batters in a stack, so let’s take a look at a top group for today’s main slate:
Lefties tonight in Baltimore are rewarded with a slate-high 78 Park Factor, and this stack includes two of them in Matthew Joyce and Jed Lowrie. Joyce has been impressive lately, posting a +3.66 FantasyDraft Plus/Minus with a 60 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 games. His Statcast data is even better: Over that same time frame, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 239 feet, an exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, and a fly ball rate of 50 percent. Many of the top Oakland batters have elite recent Statcast data, and they’ll look to take advantage of Orioles righty Ubaldo Jimenez, who has allowed a 216-foot batted ball distance over his last two starts.
Batters
Adam Lind is projected to bat fifth for the Washington Nationals, who still rank third this year with a .337 team wOBA. He’s been bad lately, posting a -1.47 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 20 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 games:
He has, however, some elite Statcast data over that same time: He’s averaged a batted ball distance of 257 feet, an exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 41 percent. His resulting +74 Recent Batted Ball Luck is one of the highest marks on the slate and suggests he could be due for positive regression. He’s on the right side of his splits today against a righty and is currently projected for zero to one percent ownership.
Atlanta second baseman Ozzie Albies has a small sample of data, but it’s impressive: He owns a ridiculous .448 wOBA and .500 ISO so far against left-handed pitchers. Those numbers will regress as he gets more at-bats, but his Statcast data shows that he’s probably a good hitter. That has a sample of 13 games over the last two weeks, and it’s excellent: He’s posted a batted ball distance of 234 feet and a fly ball rate of 51 percent. He’s projected to bat leadoff for a Braves team currently implied for 4.9 runs, which means that his ownership shouldn’t get too out of hand. The 20-year-old is looking up; get on the bandwagon early.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
