The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday has a 14-game main slate at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are five pitchers today priced above $9,000 on FanDuel, headlined by Mets ace Jacob deGrom:
deGrom has been outstanding of late, posting a large +10.73 FanDuel Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. He went for nine strikeouts and allowed just four hits and no runs against the Phillies in his last start — 57.0 FanDuel points — and has gone for at least eight strikeouts in each of his last four games. And yet he could be, along with Detroit righty Justin Verlander, the lowest-owned stud of the slate. He’s in a tough spot in Yankee Stadium facing a New York squad that ranks fourth this season with a .332 team wOBA and is currently implied for 4.4 runs. Let’s compare him to Dodgers lefty Alex Wood, who should be the chalk of the slate:
- deGrom: 7.7 K Prediction, 4.4 opponent implied run total, +128 moneyline odds
- Wood: 7.5 K Prediction, 2.9 opponent implied run total, -342 moneyline odds
Those are some huge differences, and our Trends tool can give us insight into how pitchers with similar marks have historically performed. Players comparable to deGrom have averaged 28.71 FanDuel points and a +0.35 Plus/Minus with a 48.3 percent Consistency Rating . . .
. . . whereas players with marks to Wood’s have averaged 49.40 FanDuel points and a ridiculous +11.87 Plus/Minus on a perfect 100 Consistency Rating:
The sample sizes are different, but that is notable as well: Only five pitchers in our database have had marks in the same range as Wood’s today. He is in rare company, and these guys have historically crushed:
Thus, it should be no surprise that Wood is currently projected for slate-high ownership ranges of 26-30 percent on FanDuel and 17-20 percent on DraftKings; I wouldn’t be surprised to see those numbers get higher even though the main slate is large with 28 pitchers. Wood is arguably one of the best cash-game plays of the entire year given his Vegas data, and he will be owned accordingly.
That said, there are a lot of talented pitchers in this slate with upside, and it’s not as if Wood is in perfect form right now: He’s allowed at least six hits in each of his last four starts, and his Statcast data isn’t great. Over his last two, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 203 feet and an exit velocity of 91 miles per hour. Of the 11 pitchers priced above $7,500 on FanDuel, he is the only one with an exit velocity allowed of 90-plus mph. It’s terrifying to fade him given his Vegas data and matchup against a bad White Sox offense, but he’s not invincible. All it takes to gain leverage in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) is for one pitcher to beat him.
Pro subscribers can review ownership trends across guaranteed prize pools of various buy-in levels after lineups lock via our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Because of Wood’s high expected ownership, all of the other studs are worth looking at in GPPs. deGrom is in great form as mentioned above, Madison Bumgarner has gone for at least 40.0 FanDuel points in each of his last three starts, and Danny Salazar has a large 8.8 K Prediction — easily the highest mark among the studs. He has gone for eight strikeouts or more in each of his last four starts — including a 12-strikeout performance two games ago against the Yankees — and his massive, slate-leading 13.137 past-year SO/9 mark shows just how much upside he has on a nightly basis. He’s $100 cheaper than Wood and is an elite direct pivot. Further, he’s been better than Wood lately: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed an exit velocity of 89 miles per hour and a hard hit rate of just 11 percent.
After lineup lock Pro subscribers can see how other DFS players chose to use Wood, Salazar, and the other stud pitchers by using our new DFS Contests Dashboard.
Values
Here’s a funny wrench to throw into this slate: Despite all of the high-priced studs, there’s a guy lower in price who is actually the highest-rated pitcher in the Bales Model for both DraftKings and FanDuel: Dinelson Lamet. He had merely an average game last outing putting up 13.05 DraftKings points against a good Reds offense, but he had gone for at least 21.0 DraftKings points in each of his prior three outings. His recent Statcast data is elite: Over his last two, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 194 feet, an exit velocity of 86 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 25 percent. That should bode well against a Phillies offense that ranks 26th this season with a .307 team wOBA and is currently projected for just 3.6 runs tonight. Lamet is in a great pitcher’s park at home in San Diego, where he comes with a 74 Park Factor. What makes Lamet truly stand out is his K Prediction of 10.0, a threshold that has been surpassed just 29 times in our database:
These pitchers have dominated, averaging 27.05 DraftKings points, a +6.31 Plus/Minus, and a nice 69.0 percent Consistency Rating. As you might expect, they have also been incredibly chalky with an average ownership of 36.3 percent. Wood still might be the better cash-game play given his rare Vegas data, but Lamet’s rare K Prediction is worth heavily pursuing in tournaments.
Fastball
Sonny Gray: He has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last eight starts, and he has excellent recent Statcast data, allowing a batted ball distance of 171 feet, an exit velocity of 87 MPH, a fly ball rate of 27 percent, and a hard hit rate of 27 percent. He’s impressively a favorite over deGrom today.
Mark Leiter: The rookie righty will likely pop in Models because of his matchup against the Padres and ridiculous 9.9 K Prediction. He’s been darn impressive this season, but it’s fair to be concerned about his pitch count given that he’s typically a reliever. He went 5.0 innings last game against the Mets and 4.1 before that at Coors Field. He combined for 16 strikeouts and one earned run in those games. The room for error is small given his likely low pitch count, but he’s also only $6,400 on DraftKings.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The highest-rated DraftKings stack (per the player ratings in the Bales Model) currently belongs to the Detroit Tigers:
They are currently implied for 5.4 runs — the fourth-highest mark in the slate — but they should have reasonable ownership given the Coors Field game: Projected No. 3 hitter Justin Upton is expected to have just five to eight percent ownership. Detroit has arguably the best matchup of the night against Texas righty A.J. Griffin, who owns the slate’s highest HR/9 mark at 2.854. Look at this:
He could struggle against a Detroit team that could have Miguel Cabrera return to the lineup after sitting out a couple games with lower back tightness. He’s been poor in terms of fantasy production lately, averaging a -3.15 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games, but he could be due for regression: He’s averaging a 94 mph exit velocity over his last 12 games.
We’ve recently added tools for FantasyDraft in Models, and I have a piece on FantasyDraft scoring, rosters, and strategy. FantasyDraft allows six batters in a stack, so let’s take a look at a top group for today’s main slate:
The Rockies are at home and thus all batters from this game have a slate-high Park Factor of 100 along with a brilliant 96 Weather Rating. The Rockies are currently implied for a slate-high 6.3 runs — 0.6 more than any other team — and they have some hot batters right now. Charlie Blackmon is always a threat to hit a home run, steal a base, or both, and he’s averaged a +3.50 FantasyDraft Plus/Minus and 61.2 percent Consistency Rating at home this season. Projected No. 3 hitter Gerardo Parra is on the wrong side of his splits against a lefty, but he’s also averaged a batted ball distance of 234 feet and an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour. The Rockies should be chalky as usual.
Batters
Chris Taylor is projected to bat leadoff for the Dodgers, who are currently implied for 5.7 runs tonight — the second-highest mark in the slate. Their implied run total has already gone up 0.4 runs today, per the MLB Vegas Dashboard:
They’re in a great spot against White Sox righty Miguel Gonzalez, who has allowed a massive 247-foot average batted ball distance and a 57 percent fly ball rate over his last two starts. Meanwhile, Taylor has averaged a 230-foot batted ball distance and a 50 percent fly ball rate over his last 12 games. He has a .232 ISO against righties over the past year, and he’s averaged a nice +4.36 DraftKings Plus/Minus over his last 10. He’s projected for just five to eight percent ownership partly because of his high $4,800 price tag but also because of the slate dynamics given the Coors Field game.
After struggling pretty much all year, Bartolo Colon has put together two impressive starts in a row, going for 26.15 and 22.75 DraftKings points:
Regression could come hard, however: Over those two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 220 feet, an exit velocity of 93 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 49 percent. He likely got incredibly lucky in those two starts, and the Indians’ 5.1 implied run total today suggests his luck might end soon. Cleveland put up seven runs against the Red Sox yesterday, mostly thanks to two home runs from Edwin Encarnacion. He’s on the right side of his splits today against Colon and owns a .244 ISO against RHP over the past year. All of the Indians batters are currently projected for less than five percent DraftKings ownership.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
