The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday has a 15-game main slate starting at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are five pitchers today above $8,500 on FanDuel, headlined by Nationals stud Max Scherzer:
Scherzer is in a tier by himself as usual; he’s been utterly dominant over his last 10 games, averaging a ridiculous +17.97 FanDuel Plus/Minus with an 80 percent Consistency Rating over that span:
He’s now gone for at least 60 fantasy points in five of his last six starts, and it’s been five weeks since he’s been below double-digit strikeouts. He’s in elite form right now, as evidenced by his recent Statcast data: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 182 feet, an exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 16 percent. Despite facing the Cubs today, he still owns a slate-low opponent implied run total of 3.4, and he’s a solid -155 moneyline favorite.
But, more importantly, he has immense upside when it comes to strikeouts. He’s averaged 11.5 per game over his last six starts, and he has an incredibly high K Prediction of 11.0 currently. Here’s the definition of that metric:
The FantasyLabs’ strikeout prediction for a pitcher; we look at things like pitcher and hitter K rates, anticipated batters faced, and each player’s spot in the order.
Note that K Predictions can change, especially if a team puts out an odd starting lineup different than our projected one. Still, Scherzer has an 11.0 K Prediction as of Tuesday afternoon, and we should spend at least a couple minutes using the Trends tool to appreciate how rare that is.
Since 2012, there have been 26,251 FanDuel starting pitchers. Collectively, they’ve averaged 28.01 FanDuel points. Of those pitchers, only 32 (0.12 percent) have had K Predictions of 10.0 or higher. Those pitchers have averaged 48.81 FanDuel points with a +10.54 Plus/Minus and 71.9 percent Consistency Rating:
Scherzer himself has hit the double-digit K Prediction mark five times; he’s averaged 50.4 fantasy points and a +13.5 Plus/Minus in those games. A K Prediction of 11.0 is tied for the highest mark ever, which shows how rare this situation is. These guys have been owned at a massive rate naturally, but it’s hard to fade them, especially since a 15-game slate allows you to roster high-upside stacks at low ownership levels. It might be wise to eat Scherzer’s chalk and find contrarian stacks to pair with him; we’ll get to some of those in just a bit.
Pro subscribers can review ownership across various buy-in levels shortly after lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Luis Severino has taken a step back after brilliant performances in late May and early June:
Those last two games are particularly odd considering they came against the Angels and Athletics, both of whom are bottom-10 teams in wOBA. That said, his Statcast from those two starts is just fine: He allowed a batted ball distance of 182 feet, an exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 25 percent, and a hard hit rate of 25 percent. He allowed 12 hits, and those went for nine runs; that is likely unsustainable and suggests he’s been unlucky in his last two games. He has a nice matchup today against a White Sox team that has extreme splits versus righties and lefties this season: While they rank first in the league by a mile with a .361 team wOBA against left-handed pitchers, they rank 27th with a .300 team wOBA against righties. Severino is right-handed and went for 49.0 FanDuel points and 10 strikeouts against them earlier this season.
Values
Kenta Maeda has the second-highest K Prediction today at 8.6, which would lead the slate on most days. He does lead all pitchers with 11 and 10 Pro Trends on DraftKings and FanDuel, and he owns the second-lowest opponent implied run total of 3.5 against the Angels, who have the third-lowest team wOBA today among projected lineups. Maeda is the heaviest favorite with -207 ML odds. Pitchers with similar Vegas and strikeout marks have historically done well, averaging 41.51 FanDuel points and a +6.29 Plus/Minus:
He’s struggled to score fantasy points of late, averaging a -2.52 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games, but his +18 Recent Batted Ball Luck score and elite Statcast data suggest he’s been unlucky. Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 160 feet, an exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 33 percent, and a hard hit rate of 26 percent. At only $7,700 on DraftKings and $8,400 on FanDuel, he’s the clear value guy to roster if you want to pay up for bats instead of Scherzer. He’s underpriced on both sites and could carry heavy ownership, even with Scherzer on the slate.
Drew Pomeranz is $500 less than Maeda on DraftKings and $200 less on FanDuel; he’s projected for just two to four percent ownership on the latter site. He’s a great pivot play on the chalky Maeda and studs, with his top-six SO/9 rate (9.848) and K Prediction (7.0). He has elite Statcast data over his last two starts, allowing a batted ball distance of 179 feet, an exit velocity of 85 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 34 percent, and a hard hit rate of just 17 percent. He faces the Twins, who are implied for 4.3 runs but have a mediocre .312 team wOBA this season against lefties. Pom is the only guy other than Maeda with ML odds better than -200, and the 31 percent chance of precipitation in Boston could lower his ownership even more.
Fastballs
Justin Verlander: He’s been poor this season, but he bounced back last game, scoring 25.75 DraftKings points thanks to 11 strikeouts through 5.2 innings. He has concerning Statcast data, but that may not matter against the Royals, who rank 27th this year with a poor .300 team wOBA. Verlander, who is more expensive than Maeda and Pomeranz on both sites, could have minuscule ownership levels.
Dan Straily: He’s in the same awkward price range as Verlander, and his average 6.1 K Prediction will limit his ownership given the other options today. That said, he has arguably the best recent Statcast data of any pitcher going: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 174 feet, an exit velocity of 85 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 29 percent, and a hard hit rate of 29 percent.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The two highest-rated stacks (per the Bales Model) on DraftKings belong to the Dodgers and Tigers. Ian Hartitz covered them both, along with the Yankees, in today’s MLB Pro Model Stacks, so we’ll pivot to some other options:
This Blue Jays stack is one of the higher-rated stacks in the Bales Model, and the batters are projected for no more than four percent ownership even though the Jays are implied for 5.7 runs — the second-highest mark in the slate. Ownership tends to be more evenly distributed in bigger slates, and it helps that this stack has only one batter, Jose Bautista, hitting near the top of the order (per the MLB Lineups page). Kendrys Morales, projected to bat fifth behind Justin Smoak (who has first base eligibility as well), is especially intriguing, as he’s averaged a 253-foot batted ball distance, a 96 mph exit velocity, and a 51 percent hard hit rate over his last 11 games.
Given Scherzer’s positive indicators but high price point, it’s important to identify cheap stacks with upside. The Marlins aren’t in a great park at home, but they do face Robert Gsellman, who has allowed a 223-foot batted ball distance, a 94 mph exit velocity, and a 41 percent hard hit rate over his last two starts. Further, if you dip down in the order, you can roster a stack that allows you to fit in Scherzer; this one costs just $12,800:
The Blue Jays probably have the best combination of cheap prices and high upside, but the Marlins are up there too, and they could have even lower ownership.
Batters
Randal Grichuk was sent down to the minors to work on his swing back in May, and early returns since then have been positive: In his last two games since returning, he’s homered in each, going for 28.7 and 24.9 FanDuel points. As you might expect, his Statcast data is great (although it’s based on a small sample): He’s averaging a batted ball distance of 274 feet, an exit velocity of 100 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 62 percent. The numbers are less important than just the fact that he’s making good contact since returning to the lineup. He’s projected to bat seventh tonight at Chase Field and is only $2,700 on FanDuel.
Two Tampa Bay guys, Logan Morrison and Steven Souza, are projected to bat fourth and fifth and are crushing the ball:
- Morrison: 263-foot batted ball distance, 96 mph exit velocity, 50 percent hard hit rate
- Souza: 238-foot batted ball distance, 96 mph exit velocity, 51 percent hard hit rate
The Rays are currently implied for ‘only’ 4.5 runs — a mediocre mark in this big slate — but they can outperform that: They rank fourth in the league this season with a .193 team ISO.
Speaking of high ISO marks: Sometimes it pays to roster the best batters independent of their stackability. George Springer has a ridiculous .357 ISO against left-handed pitchers, and he gets one in Oakland starter Sean Manaea, who has allowed a 94 mph exit velocity over his last two starts. Springer went yard in his last game on Sunday, and among players with at least 12 games against LHP this season he leads the league with an average of 17.79 FanDuel points per game:
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
