The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday has a 15-game main slate starting at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are four pitchers today priced above $8,500 on FanDuel, headlined by Boston ace Chris Sale:
Sale is in a league of his own, at least salary-wise: At $13,200 on DraftKings and $11,700 on FanDuel, he’s $2,600 and $2,700 more expensive than any other pitcher today. Salaries alone are not predictive of future success, but they are indicative of talent and situation: Per the MLB Trends tool, pitchers between $12,000 and $14,000 on DraftKings have historically done well, averaging 24.05 points and a +2.37 Plus/Minus:
Sale has dominated in 2017: His 4.5 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) isn’t just the best mark among all pitchers this year; it’s the best by a whopping 1.4 WAR. He’s been just as good from a fantasy perspective, ranking second among regular starters in DraftKings points per game behind just Max Scherzer. His average +7.9 DraftKings Plus/Minus is one of the best marks in MLB as well.
Today he faces a below-average Kansas City lineup that is dead last in the slate with its splits-adjusted .261 wOBA over the last 12 months. Unfortunately, the Royals also don’t strike out a ton, ranking 25th against lefties with an 18.4 percent K rate, but Sale still has a respectable 7.6 K Prediction, which is actually the highest mark in the slate. (Intriguingly, there may be an opportunity to hedge on Sale outside of DFS; right now he has +110 odds to hit the under on his 9.0 strikeout prop, which is quite a bit higher than his K Prediction today.) Additionally, he has the second-lowest opponent run total at 3.6. While he does have a high recent batted ball distance of 225 feet, his exit velocity (89 miles per hour) and hard hit rate (17 percent) suggest his recent form isn’t an issue. What is potentially an issue, at least in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), is his likely sky-high ownership rate.
Sale has been the highest-owned pitcher this season by a lot; he’s outpaced even Clayton Kershaw in average main slate GPP ownership on DraftKings:
Now, you could argue that he’ll have decreased ownership since he’s playing in a Coors Field slate, but the findings of an earlier ownership review (with Kershaw) and this week’s Mixup piece make me doubt that will be true: DFS users value stud pitchers. Sale will be owned.
Pro subscribers can review ownership across various buy-in levels shortly after lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Unlike salary, which is more indicative than predictive, moneyline odds for a pitcher is both. Michael Pineda leads the slate with -255 ML odds currently, and he faces an Angels lineup that ranks 28th in the slate with a splits-adjusted .284 wOBA over the last 12 months and is implied for just 3.8 runs. If those odds seem massive, it’s because they are: Out of the 26,063 starting pitchers on FanDuel since 2012, only 203 (0.78 percent) have had MLs of -255 or better. Those pitchers have fared well, averaging 44.29 points, a huge +9.15 Plus/Minus, and high 73.9 percent Consistency Rating:
If we focus only on pitchers with comparable ML odds, we are left with a strong cohort that:
Averaging 40.70 FanDuel points per game and a +6.70 Plus/Minus, these pitchers have been owned at a high rate — 22.4 percent in medium-stakes GPPs — but that likely won’t be the case for Pineda because of Sale, Coors Field, and the great value options in the slate.
Values
Mike Montgomery has been a relief pitcher for the Cubs, but he’s now getting some starts due to lackluster performances from other starters and nagging injuries to Kyle Hendricks. Montgomery has two major factors in his favor: He’s only $5,500 on DraftKings, and he’s going against the San Diego Padres, who rank 29th in the league with a .294 team wOBA and second with a high 25.3 percent strikeout rate. They’ve offered the best matchup in the league for opposing pitchers in terms of fantasy points per game, Plus/Minus, Consistency, Upside . . . you name it.
Of course, as a relief pitcher, Montgomery isn’t likely to go deep into the game. In his two starts this year, he has gone for 5.0 and 4.0 innings and finished with 11.05 and 11.40 DraftKings points. That’s not exciting. That said, while he went just 73 pitches in his first start on June 9, he did get up to 88 pitches in his second start on June 14. And 88 pitches against Padres will likely be enough. Per our Trends tool, there have been four pitchers this season with a recent pitch count between 70 and 90 with similar K Predictions against the Padres. They did just fine:
Montgomery’s ownership will likely be low, in part because Dodgers righty Brandon McCarthy is oddly cheap at $6,400 on DraftKings and $7,900 on FanDuel. He owns the lowest implied run total of the day at 3.5 against the New York Mets, which is telling since they rank eighth in the league this season against right-handed pitchers with a .331 team wOBA. McCarthy’s price drop could be due to poor play over his past couple of games, but they also came against high-powered offenses in the Indians and Nationals:
As you can see, just three games ago he was all the way up to $9,000 on DraftKings. His Statcast data suggests he’s doing fine despite the mediocre results. In fact, he has the best recent advanced marks in the entire slate: Over his last two games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 184 feet, an exit velocity of 83 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of just 10 percent. His +21 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) indicates that he has been a little unlucky over that span. He has a respectable 6.3 K Prediction and is a massive favorite at -200; he will likely be a very popular SP2 option alongside Sale.
Fastballs
Zack Greinke: He’s second to Sale today with an average of 41.0 FanDuel points per game over the last month, and he’s $8,200. Okay, sure, he’s at Coors, but that means he should have decreased ownership.
Ervin Santana: He faces the White Sox, who have extreme splits against righties and lefties this year. They’re first in the league by a mile with a .356 team wOBA against lefties and rarely strike out, but against righties they rank 26th with a poor .302 wOBA and are top-eight in strikeout rate. There could be an edge in this regard, as Vegas bettors could be looking at the mean rate instead of their splits: Santana is only at -125 to hit the over on his low 5.0 strikeout prop. Our K Prediction today has him pegged at 6.8.
Francis Martes: The 21-year-old Houston righty made his major league debut last week in relief, allowing four earned runs to the Angels. He’ll get his first start today against the Athletics, who own the second-lowest team wOBA in the slate at .265. He wasn’t great in the minors this year, posting a 5.29 ERA and a 2.10 WHIP, but he’s shown strikeout ability — 38 Ks in 32.1 innings pitched — and is near the minimum price on both sites.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. It’s likely no surprise that the highest-rated five-man stack in the Bales Model belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are visiting Coors Field. Since Ryan Sheppard covered them in today’s MLB Pro Model Stacks, let’s talk about the home Rockies instead:
As mentioned in the Sale section, when given the choice between a stud pitcher and Coors batters DFS users often choose the pitcher. That could be especially true today given Sale’s salary and that the Rockies are going against a good pitcher in Greinke. Still, their offense is potent: They rank 10th in the league with a .329 team wOBA against righties, and Vegas has them currently implied for 5.5 runs. The Rockies have a 99 Weather Rating along with a perfect 100 Park Factor. Charlie Blackmon is always intriguing, especially against a RHP: Over the last year, he’s posted a .424 wOBA, .305 ISO, and a .640 slugging percentage against righties.
On FanDuel the St. Louis Cardinals rate highly in the Bales Model:
The Cardinals go up against Philly righty Jeremy Hellickson, who was been awful all season and especially of late: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 235 feet, a fly ball rate of 44 percent, and a hard hit rate of 41 percent. He gave up six runs across five innings last outing and struck out just a single batter. That’s not good, and the Cardinals have been smashing the ball recently. Matt Carpenter is projected to lead off (per the MLB Lineups page) and has been one of the hottest batters in the league over the last two weeks, averaging a +4.93 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency, and his Statcast data is even better. Over his last 13 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 258 feet, an exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 52 percent, and a hard hit rate of 44 percent. He has a top-four rating in the Bales Model, even with a game at Coors Field.
Batters
One GPP strategy that has intrigued me this year is to take the best offenses no matter the Vegas data or matchup. The Yankees rank first in the league against right-handed pitchers with a massive .359 team wOBA, and today they face Angels righty Parker Bridwell, who is joining the rotation out of the bullpen because of an injury to Matt Shoemaker. He hasn’t pitched many innings, but Bridwell hasn’t been great in his appearances, posting a 1.626 WHIP and a 2.927 HR/9. That is particularly concerning against the Yankees, especially Aaron Judge, who has a ridiculous .409 wOBA and .308 ISO against fellow righties. Judge continues to destroy baseballs: Over his last 12 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 259 feet, an exit velocity of 97 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 56 percent.
I mentioned our proprietary Recent Batted Ball Luck metric earlier; here’s the definition in case you don’t already know:
The difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days
Jedd Gyorko stands out in this regard with a +37, and so does Braves outfielder Matt Kemp, who is projected to bat cleanup. He’s only $3,200 on FanDuel and goes up against lefty Matt Moore, who has allowed a high 225-foot batted ball distance and a 47 percent hard hit rate over his last two starts. Kemp hasn’t been a great fantasy producer lately . . .
. . . but his Statcast data suggests he could be due for some positive regression: Over his last 13 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 227 feet and an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour. The Braves are implied for ‘only’ 4.8 runs, which means they should be low-owned; Kemp is currently projected for just two to four percent ownership on both sites.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
