The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday has a 15-game main slate starting at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Outside of Clayton Kershaw, today features a relatively weak group of stud pitchers considering we have a full 15-game slate; only four starters have price tags above $9,000 on FanDuel:
What jumps out about Kershaw today is his low K Prediction of 5.8, which is almost unprecedented for a pitcher of his salary; there are only nine other occurrences in our database of a comparably priced pitcher with a K Prediction of 6.3 or lower. Surprisingly, the low K Prediction hasn’t prevented these pitchers from performing like studs (per our Trends tool):
However, the low K Prediction isn’t Kershaw’s only problem: His recent Statcast data is downright scary. He’s allowed an average batted ball distance of 233 feet over his last 2 starts, giving him a horrible distance differential of +33 feet. Additionally, he owns a slate-worst Recent Batted Ball Luck (Rec BBL) of -95. If Kershaw isn’t able to strike out batters — if more balls than usual are put in play against him — he actually might struggle.
On a different day this data might be enough to warrant fade consideration, but there’s no obvious pivot option with similar upside. No pitcher has a K Prediction greater than 7.5, and Kershaw still offers the usual safety of his Vegas data; he leads the slate with an opponent implied team total of 3.4 runs and has the third-best moneyline odds at -167. While he has more red flags than usual, he’s still Kershaw. More money has been lost than won by fading him throughout his career.
David Price is making his fourth start of the season and appears to be off his pitch count after throwing 107 pitches in his last outing. He’s the biggest favorite of the day with -242 moneyline odds, and pitchers with comparable odds have historically returned value on DraftKings:
He’s also pitching at home, where he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.70 in 17 starts with the Red Sox. His Statcast data over his last three starts is solid with an average batted ball distance of 203 feet, exit velocity of 87 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 27 percent.
There has arguably been no better pitcher in baseball than Zach Greinke over his last 10 starts:
He has the highest K Prediction among all the stud pitchers at 6.7, and he sports a Bargain Rating of 93 percent on FanDuel. Pitchers with comparable numbers in both categories have historically been successful:
He also has the best Statcast data of the group, posting a distance differential of -18 feet over his last two starts. That said, Greinke has a subpar matchup against the Tigers, who are currently implied for 4.5 runs; their projected lineup has a splits-adjusted wOBA of .301 and K rate of only 24.4 percent over the last 12 months. It’s not easy to pay up for a pitcher who’s not in a good matchup or projected for many strikeouts.
Values
Marco Estrada has a great matchup today against the Rays, whose split-adjusted wOBA of .282 and K rate of 28.2 percent are among the worst marks on the slate. He has moneyline odds of -156 and a K Prediction of 7.3, and pitchers with comparable data have historically been solid values on DraftKings:
Still, Estrada has his warts. He has arguably the worst Statcast data of all today’s starters with a batted ball distance of 243 feet and hard hit rate of 45 percent over his last two starts. Additionally, he has a Rec BBL of -73 and slate-low Park Factor of 39, and pitchers with comparable Rec BBLs in similar ballparks have a historical Plus/Minus of -1.06 on DraftKings.
Brad Peacock leads the slate with a K Prediction of 7.5 and also has the highest K/9 over the past 12 months at 10.83. He faces the Rangers, whom he dominated with nine strikeouts over six innings just two starts ago:
The big concern with Peacock is his pitch count. He’s averaged only 77.5 pitches over his four starts this season and pitched into the fifth inning just once. He still has upside, but his salary has increased by $2,200 on DraftKings over the past month. He now has a lot less room for error.
Fastballs
Joe Ross: He’s second on the day with -192 moneyline odds, and he’s affordable with a $7,200 salary on DraftKings. Comparably cheap favorites of that magnitude have historically provided a Plus/Minus of +2.83 on DraftKings, where Ross has a Bargain Rating of 80 percent. He could be a chalky SP2 option.
Trevor Bauer: Opposing Kershaw, he’ll probably have minimal ownership (which Pro subscribers can review using our DFS Ownership Dashboard), but his K Prediction of 6.7 is the fourth-highest mark on the slate. He also has solid Statcast data with a batted ball distance of 197 feet and ground ball rate of 63 percent over his last three starts.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack in the Bales Model belongs to the Minnesota Twins, but since they are covered in today’s MLB Pro Model Stacks lets focus instead on the Seattle Mariners:
Per the Vegas Dashboard, today features numerous teams with high totals, so the Mariners are only seventh on the slate with 5.1 implied runs. What makes the Mariners stand out is their recent Statcast data, as all of the stacked batters except for Robinson Cano have positive distance differentials over the past 15 days:
Twins right-handed pitcher Kyle Gibson has a slate-high WHIP of 1.65 over the past 12 months, and the current forecast calls for prime hitting conditions with a temperature in the mid 80s and a humidity of roughly 70 percent. Of course, the humidity is accompanied by the threat of rain, but right now the Mariners-Twins game has only a four percent chance of precipitation at game time.
On FanDuel, the top four-man stack belongs to the Washington Nationals:
The Nats are second on the season with 5.44 runs per game, and their projected lineup ranks second on the slate with a splits-adjusted wOBA of .321. Braves righty RA Dickey has an ERA of 4.73 and a FIP of 5.77 so far this season and has also allowed an average of 1.68 home runs per nine innings over the past 12 months. Anthony Rendon in particular has been hitting well of late with a batted ball distance of 242 feet, exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, and fly ball rate of 55 percent. Batters in comparable recent form have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.57 on FanDuel.
Batters
Trey Mancini has been unproductive over his last ten games with a Plus/Minus of -1.74 on DraftKings, but his Rec BBL of +60 suggests he’s been unlucky recently. This could be a spot for some positive regression; White Sox lefty Derek Holland has been roughed up over his last two starts, allowing a batted ball distance of 231 feet, an exit velocity of 96 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 58 percent. Mancini has a .378 wOBA and .301 ISO against left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months.
Mallex Smith has swiped four bags in four games since being called up by the Rays, and he’s also posted a distance differential of +41 feet over that time. Leadoff hitters with a distance differential that large have historically posted a Plus/Minus of +3.08 on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent. If we factor in Smith’s base stealing prowess, the trend’s Plus/Minus increases to +5.24 with a 31 percent Upside Rating. Smith has some tournament appeal since he will likely have low ownership against Estrada.
Justin Turner is the rare reverse splits righty with positive splits-adjusted numbers against right-handed pitchers:
He leads the slate with nine Pro Trends on FanDuel, and since returning from injury three games ago he has some ridiculous Statcast numbers with a batted ball distance of 269 feet, exit velocity of 101 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 85 percent. The sample is small, but it indicates the kind of damage that Turner can do. He’ll likely have low ownership, as the Dodgers have one of the lowest team totals of the day at 4.2 runs.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
