The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday has a 14-game main slate at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
While there are many pitchers in today’s slate, there aren’t many high-priced options. Only Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco, and Justin Verlander sit above $8,700 on FanDuel:
Scherzer and Carrasco seem to be in a different tier than Verlander, who has poor Vegas data; he’s in what is currently a pick’em game against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are implied for 4.3 runs at Chase Field. Carrasco is in Toronto at the Rogers Centre, which historically has been a nice hitter’s park . . .
. . . but it’s still no Chase or Coors Field. Further, Verlander has some concerning Statcast data: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a slate-high batted ball distance of 252 feet, an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour, and a fly ball rate of 62 percent. That’s especially concerning considering that Verlander’s last two games have been solid — 40.0 and 49.0 FanDuel points — after two duds: 15.0 and -3.0 FanDuel points. His Statcast data is only from the two bounceback games and suggests he might have gotten a lucky; perhaps those are the outliers in his season-long sample.
Scherzer will likely be the most popular stud, as he just went for 61.0 FanDuel points and 11 strikeouts against the Diamondbacks in his last start and leads today’s slate with a massive 9.1 K Prediction. Per our Trends tool, pitchers with similar K Predictions have historically averaged 39.91 FanDuel points and a +5.31 Plus/Minus with a 61.9 percent Consistency Rating. Strikeouts reign supreme in DFS, and Scherzer, as usual, is the best bet in the slate to hit double digits.
All that said, I can’t knock Verlander’s poor batted ball stats without mentioning Scherzer’s: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 245 feet, an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour, and a fly ball rate of 61 percent. Those marks are similar to Verlander’s, and our Recent Batted Ball Luck metric suggests Scherzer has been lucky. Here’s a definition of that Labs-unique stat:
The difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days
Scherzer has allowed five home runs over his last three games, but he’s different than Verlander for a couple of reasons: 1) He’s not at Chase Field, and 2) he has more capability of making guys miss. Scherzer’s 15.4 percent swinging strike rate– a top-five mark this year — is far superior to Verlander’s 7.6 percent mark.
Carrasco is intriguing in that of the three studs he has the lowest K Prediction at 7.1 but the best Vegas data: He’s a -173 moneyline favorite over the Blue Jays, who are implied for just 3.5 runs and rank 27th this season with a .292 team wOBA. He’s been remarkably consistent this season, going for at least 33.0 FanDuel points in each of his six starts, and he has the best Statcast data of the trio. He profiles as the safest pitcher in cash games, but there are quite a few safe value plays today; if you’re paying up for a pitcher, you likely want strikeouts, and Scherzer and Verlander both own higher K Predictions.
Values
In terms of ‘safe’ value plays, there are currently six pitchers with opponent implied run totals of 3.6 or less; four of those are between $7,200 and $7,800 on FanDuel, and Carrasco is the only one above $8,700. If you’re prioritizing Vegas data, it’s definitely a slate to pay up for bats and down for pitching:
Julio Urias is a tough option, as he continues to throw around 90 pitches. He didn’t allow a single run last game, but because he was able to go only five innings and struck out just a single batter he posted a poor -8.98 Plus/Minus. I’ve been on #TeamFadePitchCounts of late, but sometimes that strategy can crash and burn: Alex Wood, another LA pitcher on a count, went only five innings last night but struck out 11 batters and posted a slate-high 35.45 DraftKings points. Urias stands out for similar reasons today: Although he struck out only one batter last game, he still has a nice 9.412 SO/9 rate over the last year and has definite upside in that regard. He leads all DraftKings pitchers today with 10 Pro Trends.
Zack Wheeler is one of the top pitchers in the Bales Model, and that’s despite posting a -1.77 FanDuel Plus/Minus across five starts this year. What gives? Well, he does have a solid matchup against the Giants, who rank 29th this season with a .277 team wOBA and are currently implied for just 3.5 runs. But what makes him really stand out is his batted ball marks: In his last game, he allowed a batted ball distance of just 171 feet, a fly ball rate of zero percent, and a hard hit rate of seven percent. Those are rightfully boosting his player rating; they’re elite marks. That said, volume is important: That data is based off just one game. He did do it against the high-powered Nationals offense, which is impressive, but he threw only 100 pitches. Of those, 14 were recorded as batted balls. They were pretty much all ground balls. While 100 pitches isn’t a statistically insignificant sample, it should be noted that his Statcast data is probably boosting his rating a tad too much.
Fastballs
Drew Pomeranz: He owns the second-highest K Prediction of the day at 8.6 and is just $8,100 on DraftKings; he does have a mediocre opponent implied run total of 4.2, but his Statcast data is solid, as evidenced by his 183-foot batted ball distance and 88 MPH exit velocity allowed his last two starts.
Jeff Samardzija: He was excellent in his last outing, putting up 61.0 FanDuel points against the Dodgers thanks to 11 strikeouts across eight innings; he has excellent Statcast data as well, allowing an exit velocity of 86 MPH and a hard hit rate of just 18 percent over his last two games.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. There’s a game at Coors Field today, so it’s no surprise that the highest-rated five-man DraftKings stack in the Bales Model belongs to the Rockies:
That said, there’s currently an 84 percent chance of precipitation, and last night’s game was postponed due to rain. Coors batters pretty much always have high upside; rain doesn’t affect their altitude. But what is interesting is their ownership levels: Last night, Coors batters were all relatively low-owned: Anthony Rizzo, for example, was owned in just 7.15 percent of lineups in the DraftKings $8 MLB Crazy 8’s (per our DFS Ownership Dashboard). People had to make guesses about the game. It was supposed to start at 8:40 pm ET and didn’t get postponed until 9:56 pm ET. Late swap wasn’t an option; DFS users had to make a choice whether to take the risk on the rain.
That dilemma likely presents itself again tonight, but we do have the advantage of more data due to last night’s ownership. Will the Cubs and Rockies bats all have single-digit ownership again as people pay up for Scherzer and other high-total games instead?
On FanDuel, the highest-rated four-man non-Coors stack belongs to the Oakland Athletics:
This isn’t a potent offense — the A’s rank 22nd in the league this season with a .307 team wOBA — but they do have a nice matchup against Angels righty Alex Meyer, who has been dreadful to start the year, allowing eight earned runs across just 7.2 innings pitched. He owns the third-highest WHIP at 1.655 among all pitchers today, and the A’s are currently implied for a solid 4.6 runs, and they have some batters who have been hitting the ball well lately: All of their projected top-six batters (per the MLB Lineups page) have averaged a recent exit velocity of 91-plus MPH, and five of the six have posted hard hit rates of 40-plus percent. Khris Davis isn’t in the stack, but he’s a fine option as well: Over his last 12 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 269 feet, an exit velocity of 98 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 62 percent. He struck out in all four at-bats last night, but he has the power to get hot in a hurry.
Batters
We have a new stat called Opponent Bullpen Strength; here’s the definition:
The percentile rank of how “overworked” the opposing bullpen has been over the past three games; a higher number is better for batters
There are several teams with marks of 90 or above: the Cubs, Yankees, Athletics, Cardinals, Braves, and Marlins. Those teams face tired bullpens. The Cubs batters all have slate-high Opp Bullpen Strength marks of 99, and they’re playing a double-header today at Coors. If that game plays, and if the day game makes Colorado dip into their bullpen even more, things could get ugly at night. The Yankees had a 99 rating last night, and not much has really changed since then: They put up 10 runs against the Reds, and pitcher Rookie Davis made it only 4.1 innings. Fresh off a day of rest, Aaron Judge will return today to crush the ball: Over his last 11 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 257 feet, an exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 46 percent.
Eric Thames had gone nine games without a home run before putting one in the stands last night against the Pirates. Despite the ‘slump,’ he still has excellent batted ball data: Over his last 12 games, he’s averaged a distance of 250 feet, an exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 51 percent, and a hard hit rate of 42 percent. His splits are odd: He’s a lefty but currently has positive splits against left-handed pitchers, as evidenced by his .560 ISO and .194 ISO differential. That’s likely due to a small sample: This season, he has faced just four lefties (versus 25 righties), and he’s crushed them:
He could be worth a fade for that reason, but he also might not be highly-owned in such a large slate anyway.
Jay Bruce has a tough matchup against Samardzija, who has been excellent lately. That said, it’s hard to ignore Bruce’s Statcast marks of late: Over his last 12 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 262 feet, an exit velocity of 99 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 55 percent, and a slate-leading hard hit rate of 65 percent. He has strong splits against right-handed pitchers, posting a .309 ISO and .126 ISO differential against them over the last year, and he’s currently projected to hit third for the Mets. Again, the matchup isn’t great, but he’s absolutely smashing the ball and is currently projected for just two to four percent ownership on DraftKings.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
