The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday has a split slate: There are two games in the 4:07 pm ET early slate and 13 games in the 7:05 pm ET main slate.
Pitchers
Studs
After having no high-priced studs in last night’s main slate, we’re granted four guys above $11,000 on DraftKings and $10,000 on FanDuel tonight.
This is definitely a tier of its own; there are no pitchers in the $10,000 range on DraftKings or the $9,000 range on FanDuel.
In a group of high-strikeout guys, Dallas Keuchel definitely stands out with his mediocre 7.826 past-year SO/9 rate. That said, it’s been elevated this season: Over his past six starts — 44.2 innings — he’s racked up 42 strikeouts. That’s a rate of 9.502 SO/9, which would put him top-five in today’s slate. Further, he’s been amazing all-around, averaging a +11.96 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 88 percent Consistency in 2017:
His Statcast data is just as good: Over his last two starts — which includes his one negative Plus/Minus game of the year — he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 176 feet, an exit velocity of 85 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 13 percent, and a hard hit rate of 19 percent. He’s in a nice matchup at a pitcher’s park in Miami against a Marlins team that ranks 23rd this season with a .148 team ISO. Their projected lineup owns a poor .279 wOBA against left-handed pitchers over the last year, and they’re implied for 3.4 runs. For all of those reasons — plus Keuch’s high 8.0 K Prediction — he is one of the highest-rated pitchers in the Bales Model for both sites.
Yu Darvish and Stephen Strasburg have almost identical marks in several key areas:
- Darvish: 3.6 opponent run total, 197-foot batted ball distance, 89 MPH exit velocity, 31 percent hard hit rate
- Strasburg: 3.5 opponent run total, 199-foot batted ball distance, 89 MPH exit velocity, 34 percent hard hit rate
Strasburg is $100 more expensive on DraftKings; Darvish is $200 more expensive on FanDuel. That said, there are a couple of notable differences. Perhaps the biggest one is that Darvish’s 8.2 K Prediction leads the slate and is 0.9 strikeouts higher than Strasburg’s. He faces the Phillies, who rank 11th in strikeout rate this season; Strasburg gets the Pirates, who rank 24th. That said, Strasburg is at a pitcher’s park in Pittsburgh, and his 87 Park Factor is the third-highest mark today. These two pitchers are fairly even in their data points; choosing one or the other should perhaps come down to projected ownership. Make sure to monitor lineup changes or Vegas line movement, as those factors could definitely affect their player ratings within our Pro Models.
Values
J.C. Ramirez will likely be a popular punt option, especially on DraftKings, where his low $6,600 price tag comes with a 66 percent Bargain Rating and a slate-high eight Pro Trends. Ramirez has been underwhelming over his last two starts, scoring an average of 8.63 DraftKings points, but he has an excellent matchup today against the White Sox, who rank 26th in the league with a .295 team wOBA. Despite Ramirez’s low fantasy production over his last two, most of his Statcast data over that time period has been fine: He’s allowed a batted ball distance of 201 feet, a fly ball rate of 17 percent, and a hard hit rate of 30 percent. He did give up two home runs to the Tigers last time out, but today’s matchup against Chicago, who is currently implied for a slate-low 3.2 runs, is an easier one. Ramirez doesn’t have a high K Prediction at 5.8, but he does have Hal Gibson III behind home plate, who has historically added 1.2 DraftKings points over expectations to pitchers. Ramirez likely lacks the upside of many pitchers today, but people will definitely roster him given his price and low opponent implied run total.
There are not many ‘safe’ options in terms of Vegas data outside of Ramirez in the value range, and thus it might be wise to focus solely on strikeout upside. Lance Lynn has a tough matchup against a Red Sox team that ranks 10th this season with a .328 team wOBA, but he also owns the third-highest K Prediction of the slate at 7.3. His Vegas data isn’t too bad — he’s essentially a pick’em against a Boston team currently implied for 4.1 runs — but his Statcast data is. Over his last two games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 213 feet, an exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 44 percent. He struggled in his last game in a good spot in Miami, putting up only 5.60 DraftKings points and allowing two home runs. He’s certainly a volatile option, but he’s currently projected for just five to eight percent ownership on DraftKings and arguably has the highest upside among the non-stud pitchers.
Fastballs
Jimmy Nelson: He has excellent Statcast data over his last two games, allowing a batted ball distance of 183 feet and a fly ball rate of 21 percent, and he faces a Padres projected lineup with a slate-low .255 wOBA; I know, it’s Jimmy Nelson, but the positive indicators are certainly there today
Zack Greinke: Like Keuchel, he’s increased his SO/9 rate this season; over his last four starts — 27 innings — he’s struck out 38 batters; he’s in a tough park at home in Chase Field, but he’s been excellent there this season, averaging 45.6 FanDuel points and a +12.54 Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency through five starts
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The highest-rated five-man stack (per player ratings in the Bales Model) on DraftKings is one of the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Matt LaMarca covered them in today’s stacking piece, so we’ll instead pivot to the second-highest rated stack:
The Rockies are not at home in Coors Field, and yet they still rate as one of the best stacks tonight. The reason is because they face Phil Hughes, who owns a poor 1.585 past-year WHIP and just struggled against a poor offense in the White Sox, allowing four earned runs and striking out just two batters in 4.2 innings. He’s allowed a batted ball distance of 213 feet over his last two games, and he’s facing some Colorado batters with nice Statcast data. Carlos Gonzalez stands out despite his negative splits: Over his last 10 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 223 feet, an exit velocity of 93 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 46 percent. The Rockies have played their last 10 games at home, so take this data with a grain of salt, but they’re still worth rostering in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) given their likely low ownership away from Coors Field. Pro Subscribers can review ownership shortly after lock on our MLB Ownership Dashboard.
One of the highest-rated FanDuel stacks belongs to the Yankees:
They’re currently implied for a high 4.9 runs — and still they should be somewhat low-owned. The reason is because of the massive totals today: Twelve of the 26 teams in the main slate are currently implied for 4.5-plus runs, and the Yankees’ 4.9 mark sits as just the sixth-highest mark. All teams are currently dwarfed by the total of the Cubs, who are currently implied for a ridiculous 7.0 runs with the winding gusting out at Wrigley Field. The Yankees face Royals righty Jason Hammel, who has been very poor this season; he allowed 13 hits and six earned runs across seven innings in his last start. His Statcast data is just as bad: Over his last two, he’s allowed a slate-high batted ball distance of 245 feet and an exit velocity of 93 miles per hour. You’ll have to dip down to the No. 6 spot to roster Aaron Judge in this stack, but it could be worth it: He owns a massive .320 ISO against right-handed pitchers.
Batters
Let’s discuss the elephant in the room: The Cubs are implied for seven freaking runs at home. We can use our Trends tool to query how batters in similar situations have done before; we’ll use a Vegas total of 11-plus runs as a proxy for today.
Batters have done quite well in this spot, averaging 12.22 FanDuel points and posting a high 28 percent Upside mark. The top batters have predictably put up very solid production:
The issue today will be ownership, as a 7.0 implied run total will likely bring heavy chalk in tournaments. Still, it’s hard to fade the batters in this spot, and especially against Reds righty Bronson Arroyo, who is 40 years old and owns the slate’s highest HR/9 mark at 2.244. The stars are aligning for the Cubs, who have really struggled offensively of late: Of today’s projected lineup, only Kyle Schwarber has a recent batted ball exit velocity of 90-plus miles per hour.
An interesting play in tournaments is to perhaps take the other side of this game in the Reds batters. They have a tough matchup against John Lackey, who put up an absolute gem in his last start, posting 61.0 FanDuel points at Coors Field. He struck out 10 batters and allowed no runs and just four hits in seven innings pitched. His Statcast data is very solid (and half the sample includes a Coors game): Over his last two starts, he’s allowed an exit velocity of 88 miles per hour and a hard hit rate of 21 percent. He would likely be a popular option today if he weren’t in this windy Chicago situation; the Reds are currently implied for 5.1 runs. Joey Votto is definitely the batter to own: He’s excellent against righties and has posted a 95 MPH exit velocity over his last 13 games.
Or maybe the play in GPPs is to completely fade the Chicago game. There are many batters with excellent splits today and likely low ownership. Giancarlo Stanton has a brutal matchup against Keuchel, but it’s also Stanton versus a lefty. He was an auto-play in that situation a couple years ago, and he still has stellar marks; he has a .446 wOBA and .407 ISO over the last year against LHP. His Statcast data is mediocre — he has a 89 MPH exit velocity and a hard hit rate of 32 percent — and the Marlins are currently implied for just 3.4 runs. But again, it’s Stanton versus a lefty:
He’s currently projected for less than one percent ownership on both sites.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
