Tuesday brings an eight-game main slate at 7:10pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Pitchers
Studs
Yesterday’s Opening Day slate featured a Dodgers pitcher, Clayton Kershaw, who was the clear chalk, as the Padres easily had the slate’s lowest implied total with 2.2 runs. While the numbers aren’t quite as low today, the same dynamic exists: The Dodgers and Kenta Maeda are currently implied to hold the Padres to just 3.0 runs, which is 0.5 runs less than the next team, the Cardinals (per our Vegas Dashboard):
The Padres have a slate-low .203 weighted on-base average (wOBA) over the last year, and they also whiff at a high rate, ranking first among all teams in past-year strikeout per at-bat rate (.302). Maeda has the highest FantasyLabs ownership projection on DraftKings despite his 17 percent Bargain Rating; on FanDuel, where he’s just $8,600, he should be massively owned. Maeda’s rare combination of data has only eight historical matches in our Trends tool, suggesting he’s underpriced:
Carlos Carrasco is, for some reason, incredibly cheap on DraftKings: Despite having the second-highest salary on FanDuel at $9,900, he has ‘only’ the fifth-highest DraftKings salary at $8,800. He boasts the slate’s highest K Prediction at 9.2 and faces a projected Texas lineup that ranks second in the slate in past-year SO/AB rate. He does have risk, ranking third among today’s starters in home runs per nine innings allowed (1.332). Plus, the Rangers’ projected lineup includes four lefties and a switch hitter:
Like Maeda, Carrasco is in a rare situation: There have been only 11 pitchers in our database with K Predictions this high and DraftKings salaries this low:
Values
Among pitchers today with opposing implied run totals of less than 4.0, CC Sabathia is the cheapest starter at $6,900. He carries risk, and it makes sense to pay up for pitching tonight given the lesser pitchers on the slate, but the 36-year-old could surprise at a low price point. The Rays have the third-highest past-year SO/AB rate among projected lineups, which is why Sabathia has a top-six K Prediction. Further, he’s in a nice park in Tampa Bay, as evidenced by his 84 Park Factor Rating (accessible to Pro subscribers in our Player Models). Collectively, pitchers on DraftKings have a baseline of +0.00 Plus/Minus and 51.7 percent Consistency. Pitchers in Sabathia’s situation have posted a +2.33 Plus/Minus on 62.1 percent Consistency:
If you need another value play — although, again, it’s not pretty in this range — Rockies starter Tyler Anderson has some strikeout upside. He faces a projected Brewers lineup that ranks fourth in past-year SO/AB rate — and the Brewers just struck out 14 times yesterday. This slate is set up for DFS players to pay up for Maeda and Carrasco — or maybe even all the way up for the “Fast Ball” pitchers discussed below — but Sabathia and Anderson could have single-digit ownership. In 19 appearances last season, Anderson had impressive advanced stats: He allowed a low 188-foot batted ball distance, and his exit velocity allowed of 88 miles per hour is tied for fourth-best in the slate.
Fast Balls
Jake Arrieta: He’s certainly the most talented pitcher in the slate — and also the most expensive at $10,400 on DraftKings and $10,500 on FanDuel; he has a tough matchup against a projected Cardinals lineup that ranks first in past-year wOBA, but he’s shown upside even against the best teams over the past several years:
Lance McCullers: He easily owns the highest SO/9 rate in the slate at 12.091; he doesn’t have the highest K Prediction because the Mariners struck out at a 0.257 SO/AB rate last season.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. If we use model rating to generate five-man DraftKings stacks in the Bales Model, a 1-2-3-5-6 stack of the Houston Astros takes the top spot:
The Astros are currently implied for 4.8 runs — tied for the second-highest mark in the slate — against Hisashi Iwakuma, who sits fourth among pitchers today with a past-year HR/9 mark of 1.289. He has the lowest average fastball speed among pitchers in this slate at 86.6 MPH, and his 210-foot batted ball distance allowed is worse than all but Jake Odorizzi‘s mark. Intriguingly, this stack skips over projected cleanup batter Carlos Correa, who homered yesterday but is pricey at $4,400; among batters that expensive, he and Paul Goldschmidt have the lowest ISO marks.
If we build by model rating on FanDuel, it is a 1-2-3-5 stack of the Cleveland Indians in the top spot:
Cleveland will certainly be popular today, as the Indians are implied for 4.8 runs and in the best venue of the slate at Globe Life Park in Arlington. It’s not particularly hot there today (74 degrees) — warm weather benefits batters — but they still have a nice matchup against Texas lefty Martin Perez, who ranks fourth in the slate with an ugly 1.438 past-year WHIP. This stack skips another cleanup hitter, Edwin Encarnacion, who is certainly a good play — he has a .275 ISO versus lefties — but he’s easily the most expensive guy on his team at $4,400.
Batters
The Giants are intriguing today: Denard Span, for example, is currently one of the highest-rated FanDuel batters in the Bales Model even though he has putrid marks against lefties. Over the past year, he’s averaged a .261 wOBA, .067 ISO, and a .291 slugging percentage. Those are marks bad enough to warrant a fade — but the Giants currently lead the slate with an implied total of 5.1 runs. Opposing pitcher Patrick Corbin has awful marks — the slate’s second-worst WHIP (1.624) and worst HR/9 rate (1.444) — and apparently Vegas thinks that is more important than these guys’ bad splits. One guy who does hit lefties well is projected three-hole hitter Hunter Pence, who boasts a past-year .243 ISO against LHP.
As mentioned above, Odorizzi has horrid past-year marks: He’s second in HR/9 allowed (1.405), and his average batted ball distance allowed of 219 feet is the worst mark in the slate. That said, Yankees ownership probably won’t be too high, as they’re currently implied for just 3.8 runs and playing in a pitcher’s park in Tampa. That might mean that Gary Sanchez could go underowned despite owning the highest ISO (.351) among everyday batters today. He went 0-5 in his first game on Sunday, but he certainly has upside: His 42 percent hard hit rate last season is one of the best marks in the slate.
The Dodgers’ position is similar to that of the Giants: They’re currently projected for a high 4.6 runs despite having poor splits against left-handed pitchers:
That said, they did explode for 14 runs just last night, beating up starter Jhoulys Chacin for nine earned runs and two homers in just 3.1 innings of action. Plus, they’re all very affordable: They have the second-highest Team Value Rating on both sites, and opposing pitcher Clayton Richard owns the worst WHIP (1.743) in the slate. They have poor splits, but that might not matter in this matchup.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
