MLB Breakdown (Tue. 7/10): Target the Cardinals for Value Against Dylan Covey

The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.

Tuesday features a massive 15-game main slate that starts at 7:05 p.m. ET.

Pitchers

Studs

On DraftKings, there are three pitchers who cost $10,000 or more:

• Trevor Bauer (R) $13,600, CLE vs. CIN – S. Romano (R)
• Justin Verlander (R) $13,300, HOU vs. OAK – S. Manaea (L)
• Patrick Corbin (L) $10,400, ARI @ COL – T. Anderson (L)

Bauer has a tough a matchup against a projected Reds lineup that possesses a 20.8% strikeout rate and .337 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against righties over the past 12 months. Vegas is on the Indians’ side at home, installing them as slate-leading -230 moneyline favorites while implying the Reds for just 3.4 runs. Bauer owns a decent 6.7 K Prediction, so his upside may be limited at his high price. However, he could be a solid option for guaranteed prize pool tournaments with most entrants gravitating towards Verlander. This matchup still comes with risk attached, though: The Reds rank 12th in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitching this season, per FanGraphs.

Paying all the way up for Verlander could be the path of least resistance. The Athletics are implied for a slate-low 3.0 runs while the Astros have top-three moneyline odds (-221). The matchup isn’t perfect; the projected Oakland lineup has only a 22.8% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the past 12 months, but Verlander still has the second-highest K Prediction on the slate (7.4). The Athletics’ .335 wOBA against righties is also concerning, but at the same time, Verlander has historically dominated when at least a -200 moneyline favorite: Per our MLB Trends tool, he’s posted 23.39 DraftKings points per game, a +2.44 average Plus/Minus, and a 72.7% Consistency Rating in that scenario over the last two seasons. Verlander has middling recent Statcast data, but his 0.840 WHIP over the past year still inspires a ton of confidence for cash games.

Corbin’s salary is on the higher end among pitchers, and his 7.4 K Prediction is enticing, but it’s still tough to justify that price tag at Coors Field. The Rockies have an implied run total of 5.6, and the game is basically a pick’em. In a small sample, pitchers with comparable salaries and K Predictions have historically averaged a terrible -2.43 DraftKings Plus/Minus at Coors.

Values

There isn’t much value at pitcher Tuesday, but Rich Hill looks like a reasonable option at just $8,000 on FanDuel and $8,600 on DraftKings. The Dodgers are decent favorites (-151) against the Padres, and their 3.6 implied run total isn’t overly intimidating. Hill sports a healthy 6.7 K Prediction, and San Diego ranks 24th in wRC+ against lefties this season. The Padres’ projected lineup also owns an above-average strikeout rate (25.9%) over that span.

A desperation punt option could be Ryne Stanek, who costs only $4,000 on DraftKings and $5,500 on FanDuel. He’s currently serving as the Rays “opener” and doesn’t log more than a couple innings per game. The intrigue lies in his massive strikeout upside, as he sports a 7.2 K Prediction. His limited action is likely skewing his extrapolated 13.96 SO/9 over the past year, but you really don’t need a ton from him to pay off his salary, and he opens up basically anything you want lineup construction-wise. The Tigers’ projected lineup owns a subpar .292 wOBA against righties over the past year, and Stanek has three or more strikeouts in each of the last two games in which he’s pitched at least two full innings.

Fastballs

Jose Quintana is priced just reasonably at $8,300 on DraftKings but is just $7,200 on FanDuel and has an 87% Bargain Rating there. The Giants lineup has a 26.2% strikeout rate against lefties over the past 12 months, and at 7.6, Quintana’s K Prediction leads the slate. The Cubs are slight dogs (+104), but Quintana could benefit from a favorable park shift to AT&T Park (93 Park Factor) against a Giants team implied for only 3.9 runs.

Masahiro Tanaka is a solid option with a top-three WHIP (1.10) and above-average SO/9 (10.05) over the past year. The Yankees have a top-two moneyline (-226) on this slate against the Orioles. Tanaka is probably best suited for GPPs as he comes off the 10-day disabled list (hamstring), but his 7.1 K Prediction gives him immense upside.

Miles Mikolas doesn’t have a ton of strikeout upside (6.31 SO/9 and 6.3 K Prediction), but he’s a grinder, going at least six innings in four of his past five starts, with immaculate Statcast data over his last two. His recent batted-ball data is among the best on the slate with a 173-foot average distance, 87-mph exit velocity, and 34% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. Mikolas also has a favorable matchup against a White Sox projected lineup with a 27.8% strikeout rate against righties over the past 12 months. The White Sox also rank 21st in wRC+ against righties this season. Pitchers with comparably impressive recent batted-ball data and subpar K Predictions have historically still been fantastic investments, averaging a +3.35 DraftKings Plus/Minus and 73% Consistency.

Notable Stacks

With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Red Sox, who are implied for a slate-high 6.2 runs and own the second-highest Team Value Rating:

1. Betts (R)
2. Benintendi (L)
3. Martinez (R)
4. Moreland (L)
5. Bogaerts (R)
Total Salary: $26,500

Boston will square off against Rangers righty Yovani Gallardo, who owns a bottom-two 1.71 WHIP and 2.41 HR/9 over the past 12 months. One issue with attacking Gallardo is he’s actually been much better over his last two starts, with a batted-ball distance allowed of just 174 feet and only a 20% fly-ball rate.

Projected to bat third, J.D. Martinez has an elite .450 wOBA and .387 ISO against righties over the past 12 months. He’s in excellent past-15-day batted-ball form, sporting a 251-foot average distance, 96-mph exit velocity, and 48% hard-hit rate. Historically, hitters in similar lineup spots with comparable batted-ball metrics and implied run totals have averaged a +3.46 DraftKings Plus/Minus.

The top four-man FanDuel stack in the Bales Model belongs to the Cardinals, who are implied for a slate-high 5.1 runs (which is just outside of the top tier) and hold the slate’s highest Team Value Rating:

1. Carpenter (L)
2. Pham (R)
3. Martinez (R)
4. Ozuna (R)
Total Salary: $11,500

The Cardinals stack may be a popular way to save salary, especially taking on White Sox righty Dylan Covey, who owns a bottom-four 1.61 WHIP mark over the past 12 months. Covey has also been getting trucked in the short term, sporting a slate-worst 257-foot batted-ball distance allowed and putrid 62% hard-hit rate.

The player most likely to abuse Covey is probably lead-off hitter Matt Carpenter. He’s in elite recent batted-ball form, sporting a 253-foot average distance, 95 mph exit velocity, and massive 56% hard-hit rate, the last of which represents a 15-day/12-month differential of +11%. Hitters with comparable batted-ball metrics and implied totals have historically averaged a +1.66 FanDuel Plus/Minus.

Other Batters

The Rockies’ 5.6 implied run total is third-highest today, and both D.J. LeMahieu and Nolan Arenado will likely be popular stacking options in the No. 1 and No. 3 spot, respectively, against the Corbin and the Diamondbacks. LeMahieu has been crushing the ball lately, posting a distance differential of +17 feet, but he has also been considerably unlucky with a +30 recent Batted Ball Luck (BBL) over his last 12 games. Arenado on the right side of his dramatic batting splits, sporting an insane .561 wOBA and .434 ISO against left-handed pitching.

In the same game, few can match Paul Goldschmidt’s upside, especially at Coors Field. Goldschmidt has been playing as well as anyone recently, with an unreal 244-foot batted-ball distance, 96-mph exit velocity, and 57% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. He’s also on the right side of his dramatic batting splits, as he owns an elite .484 wOBA and .395 ISO against left-handed pitching. As crazy as it sounds, Nick Ahmed has actually been nearly as good as Goldy lately, sporting comparable Statcast data for $1,600 cheaper on DraftKings.

Aaron Hicks and Aaron Judge will be chalky against Orioles pitcher Andrew Cashner, but nearly the entire Yankees lineup is appealing since it has a massive .344 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Hicks has been dominating as of late, with an impressive 246-foot batted-ball distance, 94 mph exit velocity, and 48% fly-ball rate over the past 15 days. With Verlander and Coors in the slate, it’s tough to pay up for a guy like Judge, but it could certainly pay off; he’s posted an elite .414 wOBA and .329 ISO against right-handed pitching over the past year.

Brian Dozier continues to crush, and he’s one our highest rated players in our MLB Models yet again as the Twins are implied for 5.4 runs against Ian Kennedy and the Royals. Dozier is averaging an excellent 256-foot average distance, 96-mph exit velocity, and 54% fly-ball rate over the past 15 days and his +40 recent BBL indicates he could be due for further progression.

Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.

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Pictured above: Matt Carpenter
Photo credit: Bruce Kluckhohn – USA TODAY Sports