The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a 14-game main slate at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate features a host of strong pitching options, but two stand out above the rest:
Max Scherzer has won each of the past two NL Cy Young awards but is having arguably his best season in 2018. He’s posted an ERA of 1.92 through his first 12 starts while averaging a career-high K/9 13.56. Unsurprisingly, that has led to some truly dominant fantasy performances on FanDuel:
He has an elite matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays, whose projected lineup has struggled to a .298 wOBA and 25.5% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. Their implied team total of 2.7 runs is the lowest mark on the slate, giving Scherzer massive moneyline odds of -247. He also has a K Prediction of 11.0, and pitchers with comparable marks in all three categories have been dominant (per the Trends tool):
Scherzer is also in strong recent form, owning negative differentials in batted-ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate over his past two starts. It’s hard not to consider Scherzer the top pitching option of the day, with the only possible concern being a slight chance of precipitation at game time.
Corey Kluber hasn’t been as impressive as Scherzer to begin the 2018 season but has still averaged a Plus/Minus of +10.80 on FanDuel over his past 10 starts. Unfortunately, he has a much tougher matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers, who have the slate’s seventh-highest splits-adjusted wOBA. Kluber’s Vegas data is still impressive — he has an opponent implied total of 3.1 runs and is a -200 moneyline favorite — but his Vegas marks trail Scherzer’s.
More concerning than his Vegas data is his 15-day Statcast data. He’s allowed an average distance of 233 feet, exit velocity of 96 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 58%, all of which represent huge increases when compared to his 12-month averages. Historically, pitchers with comparable recent Statcast data have predictably struggled:
FantasyLabs has a proprietary metric called Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL), which measures the difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted-ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days, and Kluber’s mark of -91 suggests he could be due for regression. Kluber is capable of pitching a gem every time he takes the mound, but he carries substantially more risk than Scherzer. He’s best suited as a pivot for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Values
Sean Newcomb entered the season as someone to keep your eye on, and he’s really started to put it together. He’s been dominant over his past four starts, pitching to a 1.48 ERA while holding opposing batters to an average of just .202. He’s also proven to be a strong strikeout artist, averaging a K/9 of 9.67 over the past 12 months.
The Statcast data from his past two starts reflects that dominance, as he’s allowed an average distance of 173 feet, exit velocity of 84 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of just 17%. Those numbers are all significantly better than his 12-month averages, and pitchers with comparable recent Statcast data and strikeout ability have historically been excellent values on DraftKings:
He has arguably the best matchup of the day against the San Diego Padres, whose projected lineup has averaged an anemic .272 wOBA and 27.8% strikeout rate against left-handers over the past 12 months. Facing them in San Diego also represents a nice park upgrade for Newcomb and results in a Park Factor of 81. He’s not cheap at $9,200 on DraftKings, but his Bargain Rating of 35% is the top mark among the 10 priciest pitchers on today’s slate.
Kyle Hendricks is a reliable pitcher who traditionally lacks strikeout upside, but his matchup with the Phillies could give him more appeal in that department. Their projected lineup has whiffed in 29.4% of at-bats against righties over the past 12 months, which is the highest splits-adjusted mark on the slate. He also owns tremendous moneyline odds of -210 and an opponent implied total of 3.5 runs, and the projected weather conditions at Wrigley only increase his appeal:
Carlos Martinez will make his return from the disabled list today and could very easily be considered among the stud options. He has an opponent implied total of just 3.3 runs against the Miami Marlins, whose projected lineup has managed a wOBA of just .289 against righties over the past 12 months. His K Prediction of 7.1 also ranks fourth on the slate. He’s a much stronger value on FanDuel, where his $8,200 salary comes with a slate-high Bargain Rating of 99%.
Fastballs
Madison Bumgarner: He’s making just his first start of the season after spending much of the past two seasons on the disabled list. Unfortunately, he hasn’t pitched like himself when he has been healthy, owning a 3.32 ERA and a K/9 of just 8.19 in 2017. He could be worth some consideration in GPPs but will likely be overowned given his name value.
Andrew Heaney: He has solid marks across the board with -190 moneyline odds, a 3.4-run opponent implied total, 6.3 K Prediction, and -19-foot distance differential. He offers solid savings relative to the top pitchers at just $8,600 on DraftKings, where pitchers with comparable marks have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.38.
James Paxton: He could be an intriguing pivot for GPPs given his projected ownership of just 5-8% on DraftKings and 0-1% on FanDuel. He’s averaged a K/9 of 10.90 over the past 12 months and a distance differential of -12 feet over his past two starts but has a brutal matchup vs. the Houston Astros.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS Lineups. Today’s top-rated five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Oakland A’s:
Their implied team total of 5.6 runs is tied for the top mark on the slate and is significantly higher than their seasonal average of 4.48 runs per game. They have an exploitable matchup against Rangers left-hander Matt Moore, who’s pitched to a dreadful 7.85 ERA to start the season. He’s struggled with both left- and right-handed batters, allowing a wOBA of at least .390 to both sides of the plate, and he allowed an average distance of 235 feet in his most recent start.
Conversely, the A’s are in good recent form as a team. Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis and Matt Olson all own positive distance differentials over the past 15 days. Olson in particular has smoked the baseball, resulting in an average distance of 244 feet, exit velocity of 99 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 63%, all of which are among the top marks on the slate. Some DFS players will likely avoid him due to the lefty-lefty matchup, but Moore has allowed a ridiculous .599 wOBA to left-handed batters in Arlington this season. It’s a small sample — he’s faced just 14 batters in that situation this year — but it suggests that Olson could crush despite being on the negative side of his batting splits. He should check in with lower ownership than some of his other teammates, which could make him a key part of A’s stacks.
The A’s also have the top-rated four-man FanDuel stack in all six of our Pro Models, so let’s focus instead on the Texas Rangers:
Their implied team total of 5.0 runs ranks just fourth on the slate, but it has increased by 0.4 since opening. They’ve received 90% of the early betting money in this game, which could be an indicator that the sharps are targeting the Rangers. They’re taking on A’s left-hander Sean Manaea, who has really struggled since no-hitting the Red Sox on April 21. He’s pitched to a 5.87 ERA over his past seven starts and has allowed a dreadful average distance of 236 feet, exit velocity of 95 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 48% over his past two starts.
This particular stack is intriguing given that three of the four batters are left-handed. However, Manaea has actually been worse this season against lefties than righties, and all three of the stacked lefties own distance differentials of at least +10 feet over the past 15 days.
Other Batters
The Yankees are implied for 5.5 runs against Blue Jays right-hander Marco Estrada, which makes Greg Bird an intriguing option at just $3,300 on FanDuel. He’s crushed righties over the past 12 months, owning a .365 wOBA and .333 ISO, and Estrada has allowed an average distance of 237 feet over his past two starts.
If you’re looking to buy low on someone, consider Jay Bruce. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of -3.36 on FanDuel over his past 10 games, but that belies some truly elite Statcast data. He’s posted an average distance of 253 feet, exit velocity of 94 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 51%, resulting in an RBBL of +79. Bruce is in an outstanding bounceback spot against Orioles right-hander Alex Cobb, who has pitched to a 6.80 ERA and allowed a wOBA of .472 to left-handed batters in 2018.
The Red Sox are tied with the A’s for the top implied total today, which will likely make them popular. One batter in particular who stands out is Andrew Benintendi, who has posted a distance differential of +38 feet over his past 11 games. He’s projected to occupy the leadoff spot, and No. 1 hitters with comparable implied totals and distance differentials have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.17 on DraftKings. He’s also on the positive side of his batting splits against Tigers right-hander Artie Lewecki, posting a .368 wOBA and .191 ISO against righties over the past 12 months.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Jay Bruce
Photo credit: Andy Marlin-USA Today Sports
