The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a 15-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate lacks a true pitching stud like Max Scherzer, Chris Sale or Corey Kluber, but there are still four pitchers priced above $10,000 on DraftKings:
Aaron Nola is closest thing to an ace on today’s slate. He’s pitched to a 2.35 ERA to begin the 2018 season and has averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.84 on DraftKings over his past 10 starts. He’s taking on the Colorado Rockies, but luckily for Nola that matchup is in Philadelphia. Pitchers have posted a positive Plus/Minus at home against the Rockies in each of the past five seasons:
Nola has solid Vegas data, leading all pitchers with an opponent implied total of 3.2 runs, and he has great strikeout upside. The projected Rockies lineup has struck out in 27.3% of at-bats against right-handers over the past 12 months, giving Nola a K Prediction of 8.0. Nola might be overpriced on DraftKings at $12,000, but his $9,800 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Miles Mikolas — aka the Lizard King — has been extremely effective recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +9.33 on FanDuel over his past 10 starts. He’s especially limiting home runs and walks, which has made up for a subpar 2018 K/9 of 6.58.
He has a dream matchup today vs. the San Diego Padres, who have been futile against right-handed pitchers for the better part of a decade. Their projected lineup owns a splits-adjusted wOBA of .284 over the past year, and their implied team total of 3.6 runs is the third-lowest mark on today’s slate. The Padres lineup has also whiffed in 33.5% of at-bats against right-handers over the past 12 months, which gives Mikolas more strikeout upside than usual.
Mike Foltynewicz has been one of the most improved pitchers in baseball this season, improving his ERA from 4.79 in 2017 to 2.31. He still occasionally has control issues, resulting in an average of 4.01 walks per nine innings, but he’s been able to limit the damage by posting a career-high K/9 of 10.70. He’s taking on the New York Mets, who have been offensively challenged recently. They’ve gone just 3-13 over their past 16 games while averaging a putrid 3.13 runs per game. Their projected lineup has struck out in 27.0% of at-bats against right-handers over the past 12 months.
Foltynewicz enters today’s contest in elite Statcast form, owning an average distance of just 171 feet over his past two starts. That represents a differential of -43 feet when compared to his 12-month average, which is the top mark on the slate. He has tons of appeal for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) given his projected ownership of just 5-8% on DraftKings and 2-4% on FanDuel.
Eduardo Rodriguez is probably the least appealing of the expensive pitchers. His overall 2018 numbers are solid enough — he owns a 3.68 ERA and 10.50 K/9 — but his upside his been limited by his inability to pitch deep into ballgames. He’s made it out of the sixth inning just once in his past six starts despite averaging 101.5 pitches per start. That said, he fared well against the opposing Orioles in two previous starts this season, racking up 15 strikeouts over 11.2 innings while allowing just one earned run.
Values
Given the lack of top end pitchers on today’s slate, you would think there’d be an abundance of values. You’d be wrong.
Jon Gray has potential against the Phillies, but he’s a +131 underdog against Nola. Gray is also the rare pitcher who has actually fared better at Coors Field than on the road throughout his career:
Still, Gray has upside. The projected Phillies lineup has struck out in 29.6% of at-bats against right-handers over the past 12 months, and Gray’s K Prediction of 8.7 is the top mark on the slate. He’s priced at just $8,000 on DraftKings, and pitchers with comparable K Predictions and salaries have historically fared well:
Caleb Ferguson will likely be a popular value option at just $6,100 on DraftKings. He’s pitched well this season in Triple-A, owning a 2.25 ERA and 13.50 K/9, but he was roughed up for four runs in just 1.2 innings in his first start at the MLB level. Still, he’s a strong -170 favorite, and his opponent implied total of 3.5 runs is the second-lowest mark on the slate. Cheap pitchers with comparable Vegas data have historically been nice values:
He has a good matchup today vs. the Texas Rangers, whose projected lineup has posted a .290 wOBA and 27.1% K rate against left-handers over the past 12 months.
Fastballs
Jamie Garcia: He’s been a disaster for most of the season, owning a 5.57 ERA, but he at least has a 2018 K/9 of 8.44, which is the highest mark of his 11-year career. He has some upside against the Tampa Bay Rays, whose projected lineup has posted a splits-adjusted strikeout rate of 28.1%.
Tyler Chatwood: He’s in a boom-or-bust spot today against the Milwaukee Brewers, who are implied for 4.9 runs. However, they are prone to strikeouts against right-handed pitchers, as their projected lineup owns a splits-adjusted K rate of 28.4% over the past 12 months. Chatwood also enters today’s contest in good recent form with a 168-foot average distance, 87-mph exit velocity and 22% hard-hit rate over his past two starts.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Kansas City Royals:
The five stacked batters are each projected for just 2-4% ownership, largely because their implied team total of 4.8 runs ranks just sixth on the slate. Still, they collectively enter today’s contest in excellent recent form: All of them (aside from Mike Moustakas) have positive distance differentials over the past 15 days. Conversely, Reds pitcher Sal Romano is coming off two starts in which he allowed an average distance of 254 feet, which represents an increase of +50 feet when compared to his 12-month average.
In the CSURAM88 Model, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals:
The Cardinals are implied for 5.8 runs against Padres left-hander Matt Strahm, who has posted a dreadful 1.56 WHIP over the past 12 months. The Cardinals haven’t crushed left-handed pitching this season, ranking just 13th in team wOBA, but they do rank fourth in ISO against southpaws. Tommy Pham, Jose Martinez and Jedd Gyorko have all contributed to that success, as each one owns an ISO of at least .255 against lefties over the past 12 months:
All three enter the game in good form with positive Statcast differentials over the past 15 days. If you want to load up on lefty killers for the Cardinals, you could also consider replacing Matt Carpenter with either Harrison Bader or Yairo Munoz. Both batters have posted a wOBA of at least .414 and an ISO of at least .288 against southpaws over the past 12 months.
Other Batters
Leonys Martin is currently projected to occupy the leadoff spot for the Tigers, and his $3,000 salary on FanDuel gives him a Bargain Rating of 97%. He’s been swinging the bat well recently, resulting in a distance differential of +13 feet over his past 13 games. Leadoff hitters with comparable distance differentials and Bargain Ratings have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.29 on FanDuel.
Scott Schebler is another leadoff hitter in good recent form, posting an average distance of 230 feet, exit velocity of 95 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 47% over his past 12 games. He has a beautiful matchup vs. Royals right-hander Ian Kennedy, who has allowed a .384 wOBA to lefties this season.
Jay Bruce continues to underperform his Statcast data, resulting in a slate-high Recent Batted Ball Luck of +87. He’s posted positive differentials in distance, exit velocity and hard-hit rate over his past 12 games, so a breakout could be coming in the near future.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
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Photo credit: Jason Getz-USA Today Sports
Pictured above: Mike Foltynewicz
