The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a 15-game main slate at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There is a host of strong pitching options on today’s slate, but two stand out above the rest:
Gerrit Cole got off to a fantastic start this season but has failed to return value in his two most recent starts on FanDuel:
The traditional numbers from his past start weren’t that bad — he allowed just three runs and struck out seven batters over five innings — but that wasn’t good enough to match his massive salary. He’s seen a price increase of $4,100 since the start of the season, which is the largest increase on today’s slate by a considerable margin. What’s more concerning is his recent Statcast data. He’s allowed a recent average distance of 230 feet, exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of 56%, all of which represent significant increases when compared to his 12-month averages. Those numbers aren’t as important for a pitcher with Cole’s strikeout ability, but they are a concern nonetheless.
He does have an elite matchup today against the San Francisco Giants, who are implied for a slate-low 2.8 runs. In this spot, Cole has massive -264 moneyline odds, and pitchers with comparable Vegas data have historically been elite options on FanDuel (per the Trends tool):
He leads all pitchers with eight Pro Trends on FanDuel.
That would be enough to make Cole the top pitching option on most slates, but today he has to contend with Chris Sale, who also has strong Vegas data with -218 moneyline odds and an opponent implied team total of 2.8 runs. Unlike Cole, Sale has elite strikeout upside. He owns a slate-high K Prediction of 9.7, which tops Cole’s mark of 7.0 by a significant margin. Pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Vegas data have been among the best investments in daily fantasy baseball:
Sale is taking on the Tampa Bay Rays, whom he has thoroughly dominated as a member of the Red Sox. He’s faced them seven times over the past two seasons, recording an average Plus/Minus of +15.90 on FanDuel and Consistency Rating of 85.7%. That includes a start on Opening Day in 2018, when he struck out nine batters and allowed just one hit over 6.0 innings. He gets the added benefit of facing them in Tampa Bay, where he has a slate-high Park Factor of 85. It’s going to be especially tough to avoid Sale on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Values
Luke Weaver stands out for those looking to pay down at the position. He takes on the Kansas City Royals, who have averaged the fifth-fewest runs per game to start the 2018 season. Their projected lineup has also recorded an anemic .280 wOBA against right-handers over the past 12 months, and they have an implied team total of just 3.4 runs. Weaver is also a massive favorite, owning -213 moneyline odds.
Additionally, Weaver has an elite batted-ball profile over his past two starts. He’s allowed an average distance of 173 feet, exit velocity of 84 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of just 15%, all of which are among the best marks for today’s pitchers. His recent average distance results in a differential of -24 feet when compared to his 12-month average, and pitchers with comparable differentials and moneyline odds have historically dominated on DraftKings:
Weaver got off to a rough start this season but posted a strong 3.88 ERA and 10.74 K/9 in his rookie campaign. If his past two starts are any indication, he looks to be righting the ship.
Caleb Smith has been a strong value option to start the season, posting a Plus/Minus of +9.11 on DraftKings through his first seven starts. Much of his value comes from his elite strikeout ability. He has a K/9 of 11.44 over the past 12 months, and his K Prediction of 9.0 trails only Sale’s. He’s priced at just $6,400 on DraftKings, and pitchers with comparable salaries and K Predictions have historically been outstanding values:
He has a solid matchup with the New York Mets, whose projected lineup has recorded a wOBA of just .305 against left-handers over the past 12 months. His opponent implied team total of 3.6 runs is tied for the fifth-lowest mark on the slate, making him an extremely appealing SP2 option on DraftKings.
Fastballs
Trevor Bauer: He’s coming off an absolute gem in his last outing, when he racked up 10 strikeouts and allowed zero runs over eight innings. Unfortunately, he has a brutal matchup against the Chicago Cubs, whose projected lineup has recorded a .333 wOBA and 22.3% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. That said, he remains affordable on FanDuel at $9,600 with a slate-high Bargain Rating of 97%. He could be worth considering as a contrarian option for guaranteed prize pools.
Jhoulys Chacin: He is a solid -145 favorite against the Arizona Diamondbacks and has posted some extremely impressive Statcast data over his past two starts. He’s allowed an average distance of 169 feet, which represents a differential of -29 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Historically, pitchers with comparable differentials and moneyline odds have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.99 on DraftKings.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top-rated five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates:
The Pirates are implied for 5.1 runs against Reds right-hander Matt Harvey, who has been an absolute gas can over the past 12 months. He’s allowed a HR/9 of 1.86 and a WHIP of 1.71, which is a big reason he’s pitching in Cincinnati instead of New York. The change of scenery hasn’t seemed to help much, as he’s allowed an average distance of 262 feet, exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of 44% over his past two starts. Ultimately, it seems unlikely that he’ll regain the form that made him an elite starter in the past.
The Pirates are also in elite batted-ball form at the moment, with Gregory Polanco, Francisco Cervelli, Josh Bell, and Colin Moran all owning positive distance differentials over the past 15 days:
Cervelli in particular has smoked the baseball and is projected to occupy the third spot in the lineup. He deserves attention at $3,500 on DraftKings regardless of whether you stack the Pirates.
On FanDuel, the top four-man stack in the SportsGeek Model belongs to the Washington Nationals:
The Nats’ implied team total of 4.9 runs ranks sixth on today’s slate, and they’re taking on Padres left-hander Eric Lauer, who has allowed a dreadful 2.22 HR/9 and 2.17 WHIP over the past 12 months. His recent Statcast data isn’t much better, as he’s allowed an average distance of 232 feet, exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of 53% over his past two starts.
One player who stands out is projected cleanup hitter Mark Reynolds. He is on the positive side of his batting splits against the southpaw and has posted a distance differential of +26 feet over the past 15 days.
Unfortunately, the weather looks like it could be a factor in Washington, D.C. There is currently a 32% chance of precipitation at game time, so you’ll need to monitor the conditions prior to lineup lock.
Other Batters
Using the FantasyLabs proprietary metric Recent Batted Ball Luck can be a great way to identify undervalued hitters. One batter who stands out is Wilmer Flores. He’s posted a distance differential of +28 feet over his past 10 games but has averaged a Plus/Minus of -1.29 on DraftKings over that time frame. He’s also on the positive side of his batting splits today against Smith and is projected to occupy the third spot in the lineup.
The top ISO split on the slate belongs to Giancarlo Stanton, who is facing Rangers left-hander Cole Hamels. Stanton has crushed lefties to the tune of a .521 wOBA and .451 ISO over the past 12 months, and the Yankees are implied for a slate-high 5.4 runs.
Billy Hamilton could be a cheap source of upside at minimal ownership. He’s a prolific base stealer — his average of .278 steals per game ranks third on the slate — but his overall value is held down by his inability with the bat. However, he’s hitting the ball well at the moment, resulting in distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit differentials of +46 feet, +5 mph, and +12 percentage points over his past 13 games. If he can get on base at a higher rate than usual, he could do a lot of damage.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Chris Sale
Photo credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
