The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a 14-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate features three pitchers with salaries of at least $9,500 on FanDuel:
Gerrit Cole is the priciest option, and he’s been outstanding to start the 2018 season:
He’s posted a perfect 100% Consistency Rating through his first eight starts along with an ERA of 1.43 and K/9 of 13.66. He’s always had the potential to be among the best starters in baseball, and it appears as though he’s finally living up to that standard after relocating to Houston in the offseason.
That said, it’s fair to question if he can continue to pitch at this level. The Statcast data from his past two starts is ordinary — 208-foot distance, 91-mph exit velocity, and 41% hard-hit rate — all of which are worse than his 12-month averages. His Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) of -61 is the worst mark among all of today’s starters.
Cole has a difficult matchup against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, whose projected lineup has posted a wOBA of .344 and a strikeout rate of just 19.3% against right-handers over the past 12 months. Cole’s Vegas data (3.5-run opponent implied team total, -175 moneyline odds) is not as strong as you might expect given his performance to start the season, and he also has a mediocre K Prediction of 6.0. Pitchers with comparable K Predictions and DraftKings salaries ($13,900) have historically managed a Plus/Minus of just +0.10 (per the Trends tool). It’s hard to knock what he’s done so far, but Cole might be too expensive given the matchup.
Noah Syndergaard is significantly cheaper than Cole and leads all pitchers with an opponent implied total of 3.3 runs. His K Prediction of 7.7 is tied for second, and pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically been strong values:
Unfortunately, the weather in New York could be a concern, as there’s currently a 50% chance of precipitation at game time.
Zack Greinke completes the group of stud pitchers, and he leads all starters on FanDuel with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He has decent upside against the Milwaukee Brewers, who have posted the sixth-highest strikeout rate against right-handers this season. His opponent implied team total of 3.6 runs is tied for third, and his moneyline odds of -154 rank fifth. The black mark against Greinke is his recent Statcast data. He’s posted positive differentials in distance and exit velocity, and his hard-hit rate of 50% is the worst mark among all of today’s starters.
Values
Gio Gonzalez is one of the more intriguing options on today’s slate. On the one hand, he has a brutal matchup against the New York Yankees, who currently lead the league with an average of 5.78 runs per game. They’re implied for 4.4 runs, and Gonzalez has moneyline odds of just +104.
On the other hand, Gonzalez has excellent peripherals. He’s allowed an average distance of just 169 feet over his past two starts, which results in a differential of -26 feet when compared to his 12-month average. He also has a solid K Prediction of 6.6, and pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically been decent values on DraftKings:
He’s one of the best pitching values on DraftKings, where his Bargain Rating of 51% ranks first among pitchers priced above $6,300.
Trevor Williams has one of the best matchups of the day against the Chicago White Sox, whose projected lineup has posted a wOBA of .289 and strikeout rate of 27.0% over the past 12 months. He has solid marks across the board: 3.9-run opponent implied total, -145 moneyline odds, and 6.0 K Prediction. He’s affordable across the industry with salaries of $6,600 on FanDuel and $7,200 on DraftKings.
Jaime Garcia is a significant underdog against Syndergaard and the Mets, but he leads all pitchers on today’s slate with a K Prediction of 7.9. The Mets have been awful against left-handers to start the season, posting a wOBA of .255, and their projected lineup has a strikeout rate of 26.7% against left-handers over the past 12 months. He’s extremely cheap at just $5,500 on DraftKings, and pitchers with comparable K Predictions and salaries have historically posted a Plus/Minus of +2.27.
Fastballs
Eduardo Rodriguez: He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his past six starts on DraftKings, and he’s posted a K/9 of 10.34 over the past 12 months. He’s the largest favorite of the day and facing the Oakland A’s, whose projected lineup has struck out in 26.6% of at-bats against left-handers over the past 12 months.
Mike Leake: With his mediocre K/9 of 6.42, he typically lacks upside but might have more than usual success against the Texas Rangers. Their projected lineup has struck out in 28.7% of at-bats against right-handers over the past 12 months, which is the second-worst splits-adjusted mark on the slate. Leake is in solid recent form, owning negative differentials in distance, exit velocity and hard-hit rate over his past two starts.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top rated five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
The Diamondbacks are implied for just 4.5 runs, a full run lower than the Red Sox with their slate-best 5.5 runs. Still, they have a potentially exploitable matchup against Brewers right-hander Jhoulys Chacin. He’s posted a subpar WHIP of 1.32 over the past 12 months, and his recent distance of 211 feet represents an increase of +12 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Most of the stacked batters are on the positive sides of their batting splits, and all but Paul Goldschmidt own positive wOBA and ISO differentials.
Additionally, the D-backs have great recent Statcast data. Four of the five stacked batters have positive distance differentials over the past 15 days:
On FanDuel, the top-rated stack belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
The Sox are taking on A’s right-hander Daniel Mengden, who has some of the worst recent Statcast data on today’s slate. He’s allowed an average distance of 235 feet, exit velocity of 94 miles per hour and a hard-hit rate of 40%, all of which represent significant increases when compared to his 12-month averages.
Of the group, Mookie Betts stands out as the top option. He’s projected to occupy the key leadoff spot, which gives him the greatest chance of seeing additional at-bats. He’s also smoked the baseball recently with a distance differential of +26 feet. Batters with comparable differentials, lineup spots and implied team totals have historically smashed on FanDuel:
Other Batters
Using the FantasyLabs RBBL metric, it’s easy to identify batting candidates for progression. Here are a few batters who stand out:
- Wilmer Flores (+90 RBBL): He’s been dreadful recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -3.58 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, but he has an average distance of +18 feet over that time frame, so he’s making solid contact. He’s on the positive side of his splits today against Blue Jays left-hander Garcia.
- Adam Frazier (+74 RBBL): He’s expected to occupy the leadoff spot for the Pirates, who are implied for a respectable 4.6 runs. He’s facing White Sox right-hander Reynaldo Lopez, which puts Frazier on the positive side of his batting splits. He’s extremely affordable at just $2,800 on DraftKings.
- Brandon Guyer (+64 RBBL): He has a distance differential of +28 feet over his past eight games and a nice matchup against Tigers left-hander Francisco Liriano, who has posted a WHIP of 1.46 over the past 12 months. Guyer has averaged a .365 wOBA and .165 ISO against left-handers over the same time frame.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Paul Goldschmidt
Photo Credit: Ed Szczepanski-USA Today Sports
