The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a 14-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Tuesday’s slate is absolutely loaded with top-end pitching talent. There are currently five pitchers with salaries of at least $10,600 on FanDuel:
Max Scherzer is the priciest option of the group on both sites, and he leads all pitchers with an opponent implied team total of 2.7 runs. He’s also a strong -236 favorite, and pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically been elite options (per the Trends tool):
He also leads all pitchers with a K Prediction of 8.9, so he appears to check all the boxes — but his recent Statcast data is absolutely atrocious. He’s allowed an average batted-ball distance of 251 feet over his past two starts, which represents a differential of +37 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Pitchers with price tags comparable to Scherzer’s have struggled with similar distance differentials:
That likely makes him too untrustworthy for cash games, and his potential high ownership could make him worthy of fade consideration in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) as well.
Given the uncertainty surrounding Scherzer, Chris Sale could be considered the top option on the slate. His -290 moneyline odds make him the largest favorite, while his opponent implied team total of 2.9 runs is only slightly higher than Scherzer’s. He’s taking on the Kansas City Royals, whose projected lineup has posted a wOBA of just .294 against left-handers over the past 12 months.
Justin Verlander has been outstanding to start the 2018 season:
However, he has a brutal matchup with the New York Yankees. Their average of 6.04 runs per game is the top mark in the league this season, and their .354 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers ranks second. Verlander’s opponent implied team total of 3.7 runs is higher than the marks for the other top pitchers, and he’s only a -165 favorite.
What Verlander does have going for him is his recent Statcast data. He’s posted an average distance of 198 feet over his past two starts, which represents a differential of -18 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries and distance differentials have been outstanding options:
He’s intriguing for GPPs given his projected ownership of just 5-8% on FanDuel.
Clayton Kershaw has failed to return value in each of his past two starts, but his Statcast data suggests he’s been a bit unlucky over that time frame. He’s posted a distance differential of -8 feet as well as a Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) of +10 on FanDuel. He could be in a nice bounceback spot today against the Arizona Diamondbacks. He’s a strong -200 favorite, and pitchers with comparable moneyline odds and distance differentials have been nice values:
Finally, Noah Syndergaard could be the best pure value among the top pitchers on DraftKings, where his Bargain Rating of 38% is the top mark among pitchers priced above $7,600. He has a nice matchup with the Atlanta Braves, whose projected lineup has posted a .274 wOBA and 25.5% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months.
Values
Michael Wacha looks like the top option for those paying down on today’s slate. The Cardinals are implied for 5.5 runs, which results in moneyline odds of -214 for Wacha. He has an excellent matchup vs. the Chicago White Sox, whose projected lineup has a paltry .247 wOBA and 30.8% strikeout rate vs. right-handers over the past 12 months. His K Prediction of 7.3 ranks sixth on the slate, and pitchers with comparable K Predictions, moneyline odds, and salaries ($8,000) have historically been excellent options:
He should be a very popular SP2 option on DraftKings.
Andrew Suarez could be an intriguing option for GPPs at just $5,400 on DraftKings. He’s made just one start at the MLB level this season, posting an ugly 6.75 ERA, but some of his advanced numbers suggest he was unlucky. He also struck out seven batters over just 5.1 innings, so he has plenty of upside in that department. He has a nice matchup today vs. the San Diego Padres, whose projected lineup has posted a .285 wOBA and 29.4% strikeout rate over the past 12 months. Their implied team total of 3.6 runs is tied for the fifth-lowest mark on the slate, and pitchers with comparable opponent implied team totals and salaries have been solid on DraftKings:
Pitching in San Francisco also rewards Suarez with a Park Factor of 93, and home plate umpire Hunter Wendelstedt has historically been one of the most pitcher-friendly umpires in daily fantasy MLB.
Fastballs
Chris Archer: He’s a tier below the elite options on today’s slate, but he offers a lot of the same qualities at a slightly reduced rate. He has a K Prediction of 8.4, opponent implied team total of 3.9 runs, and distance differential of -6 feet, and pitchers with comparable marks in all three categories have posted a historical Plus/Minus of +2.36 on DraftKings.
Jordan Montgomery: He’s a sizable underdog to Verlander, and the Astros are a brutal matchup for any pitcher, but he has a slate-high distance differential of -28 feet over his past two starts, and he’s projected for just 2-4% ownership on DraftKings. He could be worth some consideration as a contrarian option for GPPs.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top-rated five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals:
Vegas is expecting a lot of offense on today’s slate. There are currently six teams with implied totals of at least 5.0 runs, including the Cardinals. They’re taking on White Sox right-hander James Shields, who has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball over the past 12 months. He’s allowed a WHIP of 1.58 and a HR/9 of 1.85, and his average distance of 235 feet over his past three starts suggests he’s not in great recent form either.
Matt Carpenter was covered in depth in today’s Three Key MLB Players, and he stands out as one of the top batters in our Models. Tommy Pham is also rating very highly, thanks in part to a distance differential of +19 feet over his past nine games.
The Cardinals also own the top-rated FanDuel stack on today’s slate, so let’s focus on a different team instead. The Cubs are implied for a slate-high 6.1 runs, which will likely make them the most popular team to stack in GPPs. However, their top-rated stack doesn’t include projected No. 3 hitter Kris Bryant, which could help differentiate Cubs-heavy lineups:
The Cubs have a somewhat difficult matchup today against Rockies right-hander Jon Gray, who has allowed a 12-month WHIP of just 1.34 and HR/9 of 0.91 despite pitching roughly half of his games at Coors Field. What the Cubs do have going for them though is the weather, with winds currently expected to be blowing out at over 15 miles per hour:
The weather conditions could really help Willson Contreras in particular, who has been absolutely crushing the baseball recently. He’s posted an average distance of 232 feet over his past 11 games, which represents an increase of +30 feet when compared to his 12-month average.
Other Batters
Matt Adams is priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel for today’s matchup with Pirates right-hander Chad Kuhl. Adams has crushed righties over the past 12 months, posting a .392 wOBA and .305 ISO, and his average distance of 238 feet over the past nine games represents an increase of +15 feet when compared to his 12-month average. The salary relief he provides could help you pay up for a stud pitcher.
Matt Duffy is a cheap hitter worth considering on DraftKings against Tigers left-hander Matt Boyd. He’s expected to occupy the leadoff spot for the Rays at just $3,000, and he’s on the positive side of his batting splits as a right-handed hitter. Boyd has also struggled over the past 12 months, allowing a WHIP of 1.53.
Matt Olson has absolutely destroyed right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, posting a wOBA of .463 and ISO of .411, and he’s taking on Mariners right-hander Felix Hernandez. Olson also has some of the most impressive recent Statcast data among today’s batters: 242-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity, 60% hard-hit rate. He’s also been pretty unlucky recently, resulting in an RBBL of +50 on DraftKings. With his uninspiring recent fantasy production, he could be underowned.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Chris Sale
Photo Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
