The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a split-slate: There’s a four-game early slate starting at 4:05 p.m. ET and a nine-game main slate starting at 7:07 p.m. ET.
Pitching
Studs
Today’s slate features a clear-cut top three at pitcher:
Chris Sale pitches on the early slate, and he’s coming off a strong opening-day performance vs. the Rays. He has historically dominated the Rays, and he didn’t disappoint with a nine-strikeout, zero-run performance in his first start of the season.
Today’s matchup with the Marlins has the potential to be an even better one. Their projected lineup has posted an abysmal .285 wOBA and 29.7% strikeout rate against lefties over the past 12 months. As a result, Sale leads the early slate in the top three pitching metrics: K Prediction (11), moneyline odds (-245), and opponent implied team run total (2.9). Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in all three categories have been among the best investments in daily fantasy baseball (per the Trends Tool):
Sale also benefits from facing the Marlins in Miami, where he is rewarded with a Park Factor of 82. This is one of the top pitchers in the league in arguably the best spot of the young season.
On the main slate, DFS players will face a tough decision between Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander. Kershaw wasn’t exactly his usual dominant self on opening day, which seems unbelievable considering that he struck out seven batters and allowed only one run. However, he allowed 10 baserunners between hits and walks, which happened just once in his 27 starts last season. While all that traffic on the bases is slightly alarming, his Statcast data from that start suggest there’s no reason for concern. He allowed an average batted-ball distance of 181 feet, which is 16 feet fewer than his 12-month average, and he posted an average exit velocity of just 86 miles per hour. His Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) of .412 was extraordinarily high, so Kershaw is probably due for regression in that department moving forward.
He has a nice matchup today vs. the Diamondbacks, whose projected lineup has a wOBA of just .289 and a strikeout rate of 28.3% against left-handers over the past 12 months. He leads the main slate with an implied team total of 3.3 runs, while his -173 moneyline odds rank second. His Bargain Rating of 24% on DraftKings isn’t great, but it is the top mark on the slate for all pitchers priced above $7,000.
Verlander was one of the better pitching values on Opening Day, posting a Plus/Minus of +10.74 on FanDuel vs. the Texas Rangers. He appears to be in another nice spot today vs. the Orioles, whose projected lineup has posted a strikeout rate of 28.2% against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. As a result, he has a K Prediction of 7.8, and his moneyline odds of -205 rank first on the main slate.
The big concern with Verlander is his batted-ball profile from his most recent start. He allowed an average distance of 252 feet and an average exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, both of which are the worst marks among today’s pitchers. The distance represents a 15-day/12-month differential of +30 feet, and pitchers with comparable marks and salaries have historically been awful values on FanDuel:
Given that Verlander and Kershaw both have the same projected ownership on FanDuel (17-20%), Kershaw has the clear edge in all formats.
Values
Garrett Richards looks like one of the best values of the day on DraftKings, where his Bargain Rating of 84% leads all pitchers on the main slate. He struggled in his first start, allowing four earned runs in just five innings, but his Statcast data suggest he was significantly unlucky. He allowed an average exit velocity of 84 miles per hour and a hard-hit rate of just 11%, so he induced a lot of soft contact. FantasyLabs has a proprietary metric called Recent Batted Ball Luck (Rec BBL), which measures the difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted-ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days. Richards’ mark of +75 is the top mark on today’s slate.
He has a tough matchup vs. the Indians, but his opponent implied team total of 3.8 runs is still tied for the fourth-lowest mark on the slate. He also has a K Prediction of 6.8, and pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, opponent implied team totals, and Rec BBLs have historically been nice values:
He should be one of the top choices for people paying down at the position on today’s slate.
Matt Harvey continues to see respect from Vegas despite some abominable numbers over the past year. His opponent implied team total of 3.7 runs trails only Kershaw’s and Verlanders’ on the main slate, yet his WHIP of 1.73 and a HR/9 of 2.08 over the past 12 months are among the worst marks for today’s pitchers. His Vegas data might make him an appealing option to some, while others will likely choose to stack against him. He’s one of the biggest wildcards on the slate.
Fastballs
Jordan Montgomery & Chris Archer: Sale is the logical choice on the early slate on FanDuel, but he needs to paired with a second pitcher on DraftKings. Montgomery and Archer should be two of the most popular choices. Archer has elite strikeout ability and a K Prediction of 8.8 vs. a Yankees lineup that can occasionally struggle with strikeouts. On the other side of the matchup, Montgomery gets to take on a Rays offense that has posted a wOBA of just .262 over the past 12 months.
Jack Flaherty: He’s made just five relatively unimpressive starts at the MLB level, but he’s in an interesting spot today vs. the Brewers. They led the league in strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers last season, so Flaherty has a slate-high K Prediction of 8.6. but the Brewers can do some damage when they put the ball in play, and their implied team total of 5.2 runs is the second-highest mark on the slate. It’s a boom-or-bust spot, which could make Flaherty intriguing for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the San Francisco Giants:
The Giants’ implied team total of 4.5 runs ranks just third on the slate, so they shouldn’t be an overwhelmingly popular team to target, but they have an excellent matchup vs. Mariners left-hander Marco Gonzalez, who has posted a slate-worst WHIP of 1.80 over the past 12 months. The Giants figure to do some damage this season against southpaws: Austin Jackson, Buster Posey, and Andrew McCutchen have all raked against left-handers over the past 12 months:
Brandon Belt does not have his teammates’ numbers against lefties, but he’s in the best recent form of the group. He’s posted an average batted ball distance of 251 feet through their first four games, which represents a differential of +20 feet when compared to his 12-month average.
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Texas Rangers:
The Rangers are implied for just 4.2 runs, which is the eighth-lowest mark on the slate, but they are very affordable — this stack averages out to $2,850 per player — and their Team Value Rating of 81 ranks sixth. They’re facing A’s right-hander Kendall Graveman, who posted a horrid 249-foot average distance in his first start of the season.
Joey Gallo was highlighted in today’s Three Key Players piece, so let’s instead focus on Shin-Soo Choo. He’s projected to bat leadoff at just $2,200, and he’s also in good batted-ball form to start the season. He’s posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +17 feet, and leadoff hitters with comparable distance differentials and salaries have historically been solid:
That includes an Upside Rating of 20%, which increases Choo’s appeal for GPPs. He should be on the radar even if you’re not stacking the Rangers.
Other Batters
Most people will not target the Rockies when they’re away from Coors, which could create some value today with Charlie Blackmon. Chuck Nasty has lived up to his nickname to start the season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +10.31 over his first five games. All of those games have come on the road, so he can obviously be productive outside of Colorado.
Yoan Moncada has smoked the baseball to start the year, posting an average distance of 283 feet, exit velocity of 98 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 70%. He has a sample of just three games, but players with comparable 15-day Statcast numbers have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.83 on FanDuel. He’s projected to occupy the leadoff spot for the White Sox.
Lorenzo Cain has gotten off to a fantastic start for his new ball club:
His Statcast data over that time frame suggest that the production is no fluke: 253-foot average distance, 98-mph exit velocity, and 50% hard hit rate. His salary has actually decreased by $200 since the start of the season on DraftKings, which makes him a nice value.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Justin Verlander of the Houston Astros
Photo Credit: Tim Heitman-USA Today Sports
