The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a 12-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate arguably features more pitching talent than any slate since Opening Day. There are currently five pitchers with salaries above $10,000 on DraftKings:
Jacob deGrom is the priciest option of the group, and he has an elite matchup vs. the Marlins. Their projected lineup has posted a wOBA of just .271 and a strikeout rate of 27.0% against right-handers over the past 12 months, both of which are among the worst splits-adjusted marks on the slate. deGrom is a solid -190 favorite, which is the third-highest mark on the slate.
Where deGrom really stands out today is with his peripherals. His K Prediction of 8.3 ranks second on the slate, and his Statcast data from his first two starts are absolutely dominant. He’s posted an average distance of 167 feet, which represents a differential of -34 when compared to his 12-month average. Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions, distance differentials, and moneyline odds have absolutely dominated (per the Trends tool):
He also benefits from having D.J. Reyburn behind the plate, as he has historically been one of the friendliest umpires for pitchers. deGrom is especially appealing today on FanDuel, where he leads all starters with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Two of the other pitchers — Chris Sale and Luis Severino — square off against each other. As a result, both pitchers have reduced odds given their opponent implied team totals:
- Sale: 3.1 opponent implied team total, -128 moneyline odds
- Severino: 3.5 opponent implied team total, +118 moneyline odds
That should make both pitchers less popular than some of the other studs on today’s slate, but both offer massive upside for guaranteed prize pools. The projected Yankees lineup has dominated lefties to the tune of a .401 wOBA over the past 12 months, but it also features a bunch of players who are prone to the strikeout (I’m looking at you, Giancarlo). Sale’s K Prediction of 8.6 is the top mark on the slate. Severino posted elite Statcast data in his first two starts, and he’s priced at a discount of nearly $2,000 on DraftKings compared to deGrom and Sale. He’s been an outstanding value at comparable salaries since the start of 2017:
Sale is currently projected for 13-16% ownership, while Severino is projected for just 5-8% ownership.
Stephen Strasburg might be the most popular option of the group given his current Vegas data. He leads all pitchers in both moneyline odds (-220) and opponent implied team total (2.8 runs), and pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have crushed on FanDuel:
His matchup vs. the Braves is an interesting one. Their projected lineup has posted a wOBA of just .262 over the past 12 months, which is the worst splits-adjusted mark on the slate, but the Braves have been scorching hot to start the season, averaging 6.2 runs per game over their first 10 games, so it will be interesting to see if they can continue to exceed expectations with the bats.
Finally, don’t sleep on Carlos Martinez. He may not have the name recognition of some of the other stud pitchers, but he’s in one of the best spots of the day. He’s a strong -173 favorite, and the projected Brewers lineup has struck out in 28.1% of at-bats against right-handers over the past 12 months. Martinez can do some damage in the strikeout department — he’s averaged a K/9 of 9.74 over the past year — which gives him as much upside as anyone on today’s slate. He dominated this same team for 10 strikeouts and a Plus/Minus of +20.79 on DraftKings in his most recent start.
Values
Aaron Nola was one of the most undervalued pitching assets in 2017, but he’s gotten off to a bit of a rough start in 2018. He’s covered in depth in today’s Three Key MLB Players, but he looks like a prime bounceback candidate vs. the Reds.
Dallas Keuchel is one of the most unique pitchers in all of baseball. He’s far from dominant with his strikeout ability, posting a K/9 of 7.93 over the past 12 months, but that hasn’t stopped him from being a Cy Young-caliber pitcher over the past few seasons. He relies on inducing weak contact, which is reflected in his Statcast data: He ranks first on the slate in average distance, exit velocity, and ground-ball rate over the past 12 months. His marks from his first two starts this season have been in line with his 12-month averages, and they suggest that he’s deserved better than his average Plus/Minus of -8.85 on DraftKings to start the season. He could be an interesting buy-low candidate against a projected Twins lineup that has posted a wOBA of just .306 against lefties over the past 12 months.
Fastballs
Felix Hernandez: He’s made two starts this season and has dominated in one and bombed in the other. Perhaps he can recapture the good form from his first start today against the Kansas City Royals, whose projected lineup has posted a wOBA of just .293 vs right-handers over the past 12 months.
Patrick Corbin: He absolutely dominated the Dodgers in his most recent start, allowing just two base runners while striking out 12 batters over 7.1 innings. He probably doesn’t offer the same kind of upside today against the Giants, whose projected lineup has a strikeout rate of just 19.2% against lefties over the past 12 months, but he should be one of the lowest-owned options of the day at his current price point.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top rated five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Los Angeles Angels:
The Angels are currently implied for 5.2 runs, which trails only the Rockies’ implied team total on today’s slate. The Angels are much cheaper than the Rockies at Coors, so they should be a popular choice for people who are paying up for pitching. They’re facing Rangers left-hander Martin Perez, who gave up 10 hits over 5.1 innings in his first start this season. His Statcast data from that start isn’t encouraging either, as he allowed an average distance of 227 feet, exit velocity of 98 miles per hour and hard hit rate of 58%.
Zach Cozart is projected to occupy the leadoff spot today, and he’s crushed lefties to the tune of a .385 wOBA and .233 ISO over the past 12 months. He’s someone who should be on your radar regardless of whether you’re stacking the Angels.
The top FanDuel stack on today’s slate also belongs to the Angels, so let’s focus on one of the top Coors Field stacks instead:
Coors lived up to its reputation on Monday as the Padres and Rockies combined to score 15 runs. The Padres are surprisingly affordable for a team playing at Coors — they have only three players priced above $3,000 on FanDuel — and only two of their starters had an average ownership above 10% yesterday. They have arguably a better matchup today against Rockies left-hander Tyler Anderson, who allowed an average distance of 220 feet in his first start.
One player in particular who stands out is Hunter Renfroe, who has destroyed left-handers over the past 12 months. He’s posted a wOBA of .440 and an ISO of .369, and Anderson allowed a wOBA of .358 to right-handed batters in 2017.
Other Batters
Catcher is often a pay-down position, and one of the top candidates on today’s slate is Travis d’Arnaud. He’s taking on Marlins left-hander Caleb Smith, and d’Arnaud has posted a wOBA of .375 and ISO of .212 against southpaws over the past 12 months. He’s projected to occupy the No. 5 spot in a Mets lineup currently implied for 4.7 runs.
Charlie Blackmon was owned in just 7.16% of contests yesterday on DraftKings, thanks in part to the fact that he was facing a left-handed pitcher. He’s facing another lefty today in Joey Lucchesi, so his ownership on today’s slate will likely be similar. He posted a higher average Plus/Minus against left-handers than right-handers at Coors in 2017, so he can still do a lot of damage on the negative side of his batting splits.
Miguel Sano has a Bargain Rating of 94% on DraftKings, and he’s in an intriguing spot today against Keuchel. Sano has hit lefties well over the past 12 months, owning a .390 wOBA and .276 ISO, and he posted an average distance of 257 feet over his first eight games. That’s one of the top marks on the slate, and it represents a differential of +27 feet when compared to his 12-month average. The matchup should keep his ownership low, but Keuchel has shown some vulnerability to start the season.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
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Pictured above: Jacob deGrom
Photo Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
