The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a four-game early slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET and a four-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Two pitchers stand out above the rest on DraftKings:
- Jacob deGrom (R) $11,900, NYM vs. SF
- Cole Hamels (L) $10,400, CHC vs. CIN
deGrom continues to put together an all-time great pitching season. He’s compiled a 1.71 ERA through his first 25 starts and is coming off a complete game in his most recent outing. His peripheral numbers have also been fantastic, resulting in a career-high in both strikeouts and home runs allowed per nine innings.
He has an excellent matchup today vs. the San Francisco Giants, who have been pretty mediocre against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Their projected lineup has managed a wOBA of just .298, and their resulting implied team total of 3.0 runs is the lowest mark of the day. deGrom also owns a K Prediction of 7.5 and has limited his past two opponents to a hard-hit rate of just 17%, so it’s hard to find any flaws with him. He leads all pitchers with 10 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and pitchers with a comparable number have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.70 and a Consistency Rating of 64.2% (per the Trends tool).
>> Sign up for The Action Network’s daily newsletter to get the smartest conversation delivered into your inbox each morning.
Hamels is shaping up to be a Justin Verlander-like acquisition for the Cubs at the trade deadline. He’s been nothing short of fantastic through his first four starts for Chicago, pitching to a 0.72 ERA. While that’s obviously unsustainable, it makes sense that a change of scenery has helped Hamels: He owned an ERA of 5.86 when pitching at the hitter-friendly Globe Life Ballpark in Arlington and an ERA of 2.33 on the road.
His Statcast data from his past two starts is also remarkable. He’s limited his opponents to an average distance of just 176 feet, which represents a decrease of -33 feet compared to his 12-month average. He’s a -224 favorite vs. the Cincinnati Reds, and pitchers with comparable moneyline odds and distance differentials have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.95 on FanDuel. He should command massive ownership on a small slate.
Values
Tyler Glasnow put together his worst start as a member of the Rays in his last outing, but it was still promising. He was able to throw 94 pitches, which allowed him to pitch into the seventh inning for the first time all season. He’s compiled a K/9 of 11.57 this season, which gives him a ton of strikeout upside if he continues to go deep into games. Unsurprisingly, his K Prediction of 7.3 is the second-highest mark on the main slate.
In addition to his strikeout upside, Glasnow has an incredible matchup vs. the Kansas City Royals. They’ve averaged the fewest runs per game this season, and their projected lineup has struggled to a .297 wOBA against right-handers over the past 12 months. As a result, Glasnow leads all pitchers on the main slate in both opponent implied team total (3.0 runs) and moneyline odds (-185). He’s one of the best values of the day at $6,300 on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Danny Duffy is opposing Glasnow in Tampa Bay, and he’s really intriguing at just $6,400 on DraftKings. The Rays projected lineup has limped to a .301 wOBA and 26.5% strikeout rate against left-handers over the past 12 months, and Duffy has managed an elite 11.68 K/9 over the same time frame. His resulting K Prediction of 7.9 leads all of today’s pitchers. His Vegas data makes him tough to trust for cash games – he has an opponent implied team total of 4.1 runs – but he’s an elite target for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Fastballs
Sean Newcomb: He has an excellent matchup vs. the Miami Marlins, resulting in strong marks in both opponent implied team total (3.6 runs) and moneyline odds (-157). Still, he’s allowed his past two opponents to combine for a hard-hit rate of 57%, which represents an increase of +24 percentage points compared to his 12-month average.
Kyle Freeland: He’s taking the mound at Coors Field, which is always a huge concern for pitchers, but he’s actually posted an ERA of just 2.22 at home this season. He has a fantastic matchup vs. the San Diego Padres, who have managed a .287 wOBA and 29.0% strikeout rate against left-handers over the past 12 months.
Matt Boyd: He’s a nice value at just $6,000 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 93%. He’s taking on the Chicago White Sox, who own the highest splits-adjusted strikeout rate on the early slate at 28.4%.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
- 2. DJ LeMahieu (R)
- 3. Nolan Arenado (R)
- 4. Trevor Story (R)
- 5. Carlos Gonzalez (L)
- 6. Ian Desmond (R)
Total Salary: $24,900
The Rockies lead all teams with an implied team total of 5.6 runs, but they still might be a somewhat contrarian stack. Their top stack is really expensive, costing a combined $24,900 on DraftKings, which will make them nearly impossible to pair with deGrom. He’s the top pitching option on the slate by a significant margin, so it’s possible that most people opt to pay up at pitcher and spend down with their batters.
That said, it’s hard to deny the upside the Rockies possess vs. Padres left-hander Joey Lucchesi. Only Story has failed to post a positive hard-hit differential over the past 15 days, and LeMahieu, Gonzalez, and Desmond have also posted positive distance differentials over the same time frame. They’ve collectively crushed left-handers this season, owning the second-highest wOBA in 2018.
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Oakland Athletics:
- 2. Matt Chapman (R)
- 3. Jed Lowrie (S)
- 4. Khris Davis (R)
- 5. Matt Olson (L)
Total Salary: $15,100
The A’s lead all teams on the main slate with an implied team total of 5.4 runs, and they look like the best value on FanDuel as well: They own a slate-best Team Value Rating of 84, and each of the stacked batters owns a Bargain Rating of at least 63%.
They’re taking on Twins right-hander Kohl Stewart, who has been extremely ineffective in his limited action at the MLB level. He’s pitched to a 7.71 ERA through his first seven innings and has tallied just three total strikeouts. Chapman in particular could do a lot of damage in this matchup: He’s a reverse-splits hitter, owning better numbers against right-handers than left-handers over the past 12 months, and he’s posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +21 feet and hard-hit differential of +10 percentage points.
Other Batters
Mookie Betts is in a rare dry spell at the moment, averaging a Plus/Minus of -2.01 on FanDuel over his past 10 games. That said, his Statcast data remains encouraging, particularly his hard-hit rate of 50% over the past 15 days. This could be a nice time to buy low on him: The Red Sox are implied for 5.5 runs against the Cleveland Indians, and he has a Bargain Rating of 93% on FanDuel.
Finding cheap Coors Field exposure is always difficult, particularly for guys with premium spots in the lineup. That makes Jose Pirela really appealing on DraftKings at just $3,700. He’s projected to occupy the leadoff spot in the Padres lineup, and batters with comparable lineup spots and salaries have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.50. He’s also on the positive side of his batting splits vs. Freeland and has posted a distance differential of +12 feet over his past five games.
The White Sox are implied for only 4.4 runs but could be an interesting stack target. Tim Anderson and Matt Davidson are both on the positive side of their batting splits vs. Boyd, and each has posted a distance differential of at least +33 feet over the past 15 days. Projected No. 5 hitter Avisail Garcia has also crushed southpaws, owning a .403 wOBA and .244 ISO over the past 12 months.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Jacob deGrom
Photo credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
