The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a four-game main slate on DraftKings and a five-game slate on FanDuel that both start at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On a minuscule five-game slate like this, we’re void of an abundance of top-tier pitching options. There are only two pitchers on FanDuel that eclipse the $8,500 mark:
Jose Berrios will undoubtedly be the highest owned pitcher on the slate with his projected ownership of 26-30%. Berrios and the Twins are the second-largest favorite on the night (-170 moneyline odds), and the White Sox are implied for a slate-low 3.7 runs. Chicago’s projected lineup has a slate-high strikeout (K) rate of 28.6% over the past 12 months against right-handed pitchers. Consequently, Berrios’ K Prediction of 7.8 is a slate-high as well. Per our Trends tool, pitchers with comparable marks have historically been very consistent:
Berrios has been quite volatile throughout the 41 starts we have for him in our database, posting a -2.27 average Plus/Minus and 41.5% Consistency. That being said, he has excellent Statcast data through his first two starts, allowing an average distance of 179 feet, an exit velocity of 86 mph, and a hard-hit rate of 18%. The lack of hard contact is particularly encouraging. Berrios should also benefit from another pitcher-friendly environment as it will be a crisp 43 degrees in Minnesota at game time.
Gio Gonzalez gets a home matchup against a Rockies team whose projected lineup has a K rate against left-handed pitching of 27% over the past 12 months and 29.1% this season (FanGraphs), which is sixth-highest rate in the league. He’s off to an excellent start to the season with a 10.32 K/9 and a 1.59 ERA. And it shouldn’t be a surprise that pitchers fair much better against the Rockies when they’re not in Coors Field:
Pitchers average nearly 11 more FanDuel points per game with a +4.30 average Plus/Minus and 62% Consistency when the Rockies are in town. Gio will be another popular option Thursday night as the Nationals are the largest favorite of the night (-176).
Values
There aren’t many value options to choose from, but Sonny Gray could be one of them, particularly on DraftKings where he sports a 69% Bargain Rating. Gray was covered in Thursday’s Three Key Players piece so I’ll dive in elsewhere.
If you’re looking to punt at pitcher, take a look at Chris Stratton. He is only available on FanDuel’s main slate, but costs just $6,000 and has a 77% Bargain Rating. He is up against a Padres team whose projected lineup has a K rate of 27.8% against right-handed pitchers and a slate-worst weighted on-base average (wOBA) above .285 over the past 12 months, giving him a healthy K Prediction of 6.6.
The Giants are respectable -134 moneyline favorites against the Padres, who are implied for 3.8 runs, the second-worst mark on the slate. The main concern with Stratton is that he’s given up a lot of hard contact during his first two starts. He’s allowed a hard-hit rate of 50% and an exit velocity of 95 mph. Luckily, he’ll be in pitcher-friendly Petco Park, which has a Park Factor of 75 and is stadium that’s been fantasy-friendly for pitchers with salaries comparable to Stratton’s:
With Berrios’ volatility and no sure-thing option on a five-game slate, paying down at pitcher with Stratton could be beneficial.
We’ve also got some heavy winds blowing in tonight:
Fastballs
Going off the beaten path a little bit: Lucas Giolito has gotten shelled his first two starts to the tune of a 6.17 ERA and a 5.40 BB/9. However, his Recent Batted Ball Luck Score (RBBL) of 52 would suggest he’s been unlucky thus far; his recent average distance of 192 feet, exit velocity of 89 mph, and hard-hit rate of 24% have been quite good. Historically, pitchers with comparable Statcast data have been intriguing contrarian options:
Notable Stacks
Using our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into your lineups. On DraftKings, the top five-man stack in the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Washington Nationals. The Nationals are implied for 5.2 runs, tied with the Twins for the second-highest total on the slate.
The Nationals will be squaring off against right-hander Chad Bettis, who has a mediocre 1.40 WHIP and a 5.98 K/9 over the past 12 months. Bryce Harper smashes righties, posting elite .446 wOBA and .328 isolated power (ISO, or slugging percentage minus batting average) marks. Harper is off to a solid start this season and averages a +4.66 Plus/Minus on DraftKings over his past 10 games. He’s been smashing the ball with an average distance of 229 feet, an exit velocity of 95 mph, and a hard-hit rate of 43%.
Trea Turner is sporting a .358 wOBA and .196 ISO against righties, putting him on the positive side of his wOBA and ISO differentials:
Turner has generated a lot of hard contact in his past 10 games and is sporting a position-high 45% hard-hit rate along with a 94 mph exit velocity over that span. Batters with comparable metrics who are projected to bat from the No. 2 spot have historically averaged 9.26 DraftKings points per game and a +1.06 Plus/Minus.
The top four-man stack on FanDuel in the Batted Ball Player Model belongs to the Angels, who are implied for a healthy 5.1 runs against right-hander Ian Kennedy:
Mike Trout has crushed righties over the past 12 months with a .470 wOBA and .366 ISO. His .204 ISO differential is best on the slate among all batters. Trout has smashed the ball over his past 12 games with an average distance of 234 feet, an exit velocity of 94 mph, and a hard-hit rate of 48%. Justin Upton is on the negative side of his wOBA and ISO differentials, but he still has a wOBA of .353 and an ISO of .240 against righties over the past 12 months. Upton is off to a hot start this season with a +6.45 Plus/Minus and 60% Consistency on FanDuel.
Part of the reason the Angels rate so well in the Batted Ball Player Model is because Kennedy has some subpar Statcast data. His recent average distance is 222 feet, exit velocity is 93 mph, and hard-hit rate is 46%. He’s also a fly-ball pitcher with a 46% fly-ball rate over the past 12 months. While Kennedy has given up just one earned run his last two starts, he’s still averaging a slate-worst 1.96 HR/9 over the past 12 months. His RBBL of -89 would suggest he has been incredibly lucky to begin the year.
Other Batters
The Yankees have a healthy implied run total of 4.6. Didi Gregorius and Aaron Judge are both on the positive side of their wOBA and ISO differentials:
Gregorius and Judge will square off with fly-ball righty Rick Porcello. Porcello has allowed a 39% fly-ball rate over the past 12 months, and his -55 RBBL would suggest he’s been lucky so far this season. There will also be 12 mph winds blowing out to left field during this game. Per our lineups page, there’s a 45% chance of rain so be sure to monitor the weather until lock.
If you’re looking to go against the grain and stack against the chalky Berrios, Yoan Moncada has a .352 wOBA and a .219 ISO against righties over the past 12 months. He is also smashing the ball with a recent average distance of 241 feet, an exit velocity of 95 mph, and a hard-hit rate of 56%. Moncada projects for just 5-8% ownership as of this writing.
Mike Moustakas will take on right-hander Nick Tropeano. Moustakas tends to hit righties well and has a .342 wOBA and .252 ISO over the past 12 months. Not only does he hit righties well, but he’s got exceptional Statcast data: 243-foot recent average distance, 94 mph exit velocity, and 50% hard-hit rate. All marks are on the positive side of his 15-day/12-month differentials. The Angels-Royals game is also projected for 16 mph winds blowing out to left center at game time.
Eddie Rosario is fairly cheap on both sites. He has a 56% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and a 50% Bargain Rating on FanDuel. He’s projected to hit from the No. 4 spot against Giolito, and he’s hit righties well over the past 12 months (.380 wOBA, .254 ISO). His 0.089 wOBA differential and .148 ISO differential are both top-five marks among outfielders on the main slate.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
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Pictured above: Chris Stratton
Photo Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
