The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features an eight-game main slate starting at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are two pitchers who stand out as the clear class of this slate: Clayton Kershaw and Corey Kluber.
These two have been among the best pitchers all season, and both have been especially good recently: Kluber has an average Plus/Minus of +11.04 on DraftKings over his last 10 starts, while Kershaw has an average Plus/Minus of +10.80. Both pitchers rank either first or second in opponent implied team total, moneyline odds, and K Prediction on today’s slate, and they should dominate ownership at the position.
Let’s start with Kershaw. He’s taking on the Rockies in Los Angeles, and as usual his Vegas data is ridiculous. He has an opponent implied team total of just 2.4 runs and is a massive -290 favorite. Pitchers on DraftKings with comparable marks in both categories have historically smashed (per the MLB Trends tool):
Kershaw personally matched this trend 13 previous times, and he unsurprisingly outperformed the group as a whole with an average Plus/Minus of +11.55 and Consistency Rating of 84.6 percent. He also had an Upside Rating of 15 percent, which is ridiculous considering the amount of fantasy points he needs to score to hit that threshold at his typical salary.
The big caveat, of course, is that this is going to be just his second start since coming off the disabled list. He threw only 70 pitches in his first outing, but that didn’t stop him from putting up 30.3 DraftKings points in over six innings pitched. His Statcast data from that start was excellent, allowing an average distance of 128 feet, exit velocity of 81 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 23 percent. To put that in perspective, Kershaw’s 12-month average distance of 194 feet ranks fourth among today’s starters, and his average distance from his last start represents a differential of -66 feet! It’s not clear exactly how deep he can go in this game, but Kershaw doesn’t need a huge pitch count to put up a big number.
All that said, Kershaw isn’t just competing against a normal slate of pitchers today; Kluber is just as capable of being dominant. His Vegas data isn’t quite as good as Kershaw’s, but his moneyline odds of -270 and opponent implied team total of 2.8 runs are still elite.
One area where he does get the nod over Kershaw is in the strikeout department. His 12-month K/9 of 11.83 is tops among all pitchers on today’s slate, and he gets an absolutely elite matchup against the Chicago White Sox. Their projected lineup has struck out in 32.8 percent of at-bats against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, and Kluber’s resulting K Prediction of 10.1 tops Kershaw’s by a full strikeout. A K Prediction that large coupled with moneyline odds comparable to Kluber’s has historically resulted in elite production on FanDuel:
There are also no pitch count concerns with Kluber: His average of 112 pitches over his last three starts is the top mark on the slate. His Statcast data over that time frame is also good, with his average distance of 194 feet representing a differential of -11 feet compared to his 12-month average. It feels weird to say another pitcher might provide more safety than Kershaw on a DFS slate, but Kluber might actually be the safer option of the two today. Their ownership dynamic will be an interesting factor for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) and can be reviewed using our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Values
Outside of the two studs, the pickings at pitcher are pretty slim. Tanner Roark possesses the best Vegas data of the group with an opponent implied team total of 3.5 runs and moneyline odds of -165, and his K Prediction of 7.1 is fifth on the slate. Historically, pitchers with comparable numbers in all three categories have been relatively solid on DraftKings:
His Statcast data over his last two starts has been respectable – 212-foot average distance, 90 MPH exit velocity, 51 percent ground ball rate, and 27 percent hard hit rate – and his average of 109 pitches per start over that time frame is second only to Kluber. Pairing Roark with one of the two studs will likely be the chalk strategy at pitcher, and you can review the combined ownership for each pair using our new DFS Contests Dashboard.
Lance Lynn takes the mound today against the San Diego Padres, who have been arguably the worst offensive team in baseball this season. Their .303 wOBA and 25.1 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers both rank as the second-worst marks in the league, and pitchers have dominated them over the past three seasons:
It is a bit surprising to see the Padres implied for 4.1 runs, resulting in moneyline odds of just -126 for Lynn. Still, his K Prediction of 7.0 ranks sixth on today’s slate, and he also has a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -27 feet; pitchers with comparable odds, differentials, and K Predictions have a historical Plus/Minus of +3.11. Lynn is coming off two excellent starts in a row, posting an average DraftKings Plus/Minus of +9.45, and he’ll look to make it three in a row today.
Fastballs
Aaron Nola: His moneyline odds of +152 make him a pretty sizable underdog opposing Roark in Washington. However, he does have a K Prediction of 7.4 and a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -13 feet, and pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have a historical Plus/Minus of +3.09. He’s been a little up-and-down with his production recently, but he arguably offers more upside than anyone outside of Kershaw and Kluber.
Jon Gray: He has the third-highest K Prediction of the day at 7.5, and he gets a significant upgrade in Park Factor moving from Coors Field to Los Angeles. He’s a massive underdog in his matchup against Kershaw, but that should result in relatively low ownership for GPPs.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. We’ve recently added FantasyDraft tools to our suite of DFS products, and they allow you to stack up to six batters from the same team. Tonight’s top six-man stack using the Bales Model belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals:
Per the Vegas Dashboard, the Cardinals are implied for just 4.5 runs, but no team on the slate has a total above 4.9 runs today. What the Cardinals do have going for them is excellent recent Statcast data: Four of the six batters in the above stack have positive 15-day/12-month distance differentials:
They’re facing Padres left-hander Clayton Richard, who has a dreadful past-year WHIP of 1.58 and has allowed five home runs over his past three starts. Not mentioned for the Cardinals was projected cleanup hitter Jose Martinez, but he could be easily substituted for any of the stacked batters. He has destroyed left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, posting a wOBA split of .524 and an ISO split of .441, and his 269-foot average distance over his last 15 days is one of the top marks on the slate.
The Marlins have the highest implied team total, and they have the second-highest rated five-man DraftKings stack behind the Cardinals:
They’re facing Braves left-hander Sean Newcomb, who has not been particularly effective recently. He’s allowed an average distance of 211 feet, exit velocity of 93 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 33 percent over his last two starts; all of those marks are worse than his 12-month averages. One batter who should benefit from the matchup against a left-hander is Giancarlo Stanton. He’s cooled off a bit after a torrid stretch, but he’s destroyed southpaws to the tune of a .480 wOBA and .444 ISO over the past 12 months. J.T. Realmuto has also hit lefties well over the past year, and he’s in solid recent form with a distance differential of +9 feet. At only $3,400, he’s one of the top catcher options on DraftKings.
Batters
Scott Schebler is tied for the lead with eight Pro Trends on DraftKings, and he has an excellent matchup today against Mets right-hander Matt Harvey. While Harvey was once one of the most feared pitchers in the league, facing him now feels more like batting practice. He’s allowed an average of 2.12 home runs per nine innings this season, and Schebler has a solid .236 ISO against righties over the past 12 months. Batting seventh at just $3,500 on DraftKings, he’s a cheap source of upside.
Projected to hit leadoff against Harvey is Phillip Ervin, and he’s priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel at $2,000. The Reds are implied for 4.7 runs today, and leadoff hitters with comparable implied team totals and salaries have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.05.
Finally, here’s a reminder of how dominant Jose Ramirez has been recently:
At $3,800 on FanDuel, he has a Bargain Rating of 99 percent, and the Indians’ implied team total of 4.8 runs is the second-highest mark on the slate.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
