The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a split slate: There’s a two-game early slate starting at 1:05 pm ET and a seven-game main slate starting at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are three pitchers on today’s slate with salaries of at least $10,700 on DraftKings:
The stud pitchers are typically easier to fit in on FanDuel, but the difference in salaries between the two sites today is extreme: None of the above pitchers have a Bargain Rating greater than two percent on DraftKings.
Dallas Keuchel should be the most popular option on the main slate, despite the fact that he hasn’t exactly pitched well recently. He’s posted an awful average Plus/Minus of -6.87 on DraftKings over his last 10 starts:
Today’s matchup against the White Sox seems like a great spot for Keuchel to bounce back. Chicago’s projected lineup has a 12-month splits-adjusted wOBA of .304 and strikeout rate of 28.9 percent – both of which are bottom-three marks on the slate – and their implied team total of 3.1 runs is the lowest of the day by almost a full run. Keuchel is also a massive -301 favorite, and pitchers with comparable odds have historically smashed on DraftKings (per the Trends tool):
If there’s one area where Keuchel has historically struggled, it’s with his strikeout ability. His K Prediction of 5.7 is very low for a pitcher with an $11,300 salary; pitchers with comparable salaries and K Predictions have a historical Plus/Minus of -0.17 and an Upside Rating of just two percent. His low K Prediction might matter less today than usual, however, with only one pitcher on the main slate owning a K Prediction above 6.8.
Carlos Martinez is the other high-priced option on the main slate, and he has a very tough matchup on the road against the Reds. Their projected lineup has a 12-month splits-adjusted wOBA of .342, and the Great American Ball Park has historically been one of the toughest stadiums in baseball for pitchers. The resulting Vegas data for Martinez lags way behind the marks for Keuchel — a 3.9 opponent implied team total and -146 moneyline odds.
However, Martinez does lead Keuchel in two key areas. The first is K Prediction: Martinez has a 12-month K/9 of 9.66 compared to just 7.51 for Keuchel, so it’s not surprising that Martinez has a higher K Prediction at 6.8. The other category Martinez leads is recent distance batted ball distance allowed, and that is a bit surprising. Martinez has posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -29 feet, and pitchers with comparable distance differentials and K Predictions have historically done well on FanDuel:
Given Keuchel’s significant edge in Vegas data, we are currently projecting him for much higher ownership. He’s projected for 36-40 percent on DraftKings and 26-30 percent on FanDuel compared to 21-25 percent and 9-12 percent for Martinez. Given that Martinez has historically posted a much higher Upside Rating on both sites, that definitely increases his appeal for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Values
James Paxton will be making his second start since coming off the disabled list, and he’s been an excellent pitching option for most of the season. His average of 21.2 fantasy points per game on DraftKings is actually higher than the averages for both Keuchel and Martinez, and he’s posted an ERA of 2.89 and K/9 of 10.26 over 21 starts this season.
For today’s start against the Rangers, Paxton ranks first in K Prediction (7.5) and tied for second in opponent implied team total (3.9 runs). He’s also a -145 favorite, giving him essentially identical Vegas data to Martinez at more than $4,000 less on DraftKings. This game also has a Weather Rating of 23, and comparable weather conditions have historically benefited pitchers more than hitters.
That said, there are a couple of big caveats with Paxton today. The first is his potential pitch count: He threw just 50 pitches in his first start off the disabled list, and he’ll likely be on some sort of pitch count again today. The second major concern is his average fastball speed from his first start. His average velocity was 3.2 miles per hour slower than his 12-month average, and a decrease that large has historically been significant:
FanGraphs has recorded over 63 percent of Paxton’s pitches this season as four-seam fastballs, so a velocity decrease could be particularly dangerous. His Statcast data from his last start reflected that struggle, particularly his distance differential of +63 feet. It is important to remember that these numbers occurred over just one start and fifty pitches, but Paxton carries a lot of question marks heading into today’s slate. His current ownership projection is second only to Keuchel’s, which also increases the appeal of a fade consideration.
Danny Salazar is making his return to the rotation after spending some time in the bullpen, and he’s second on the early slate with a K Prediction of 8.8. Of course, that K Prediction can only come to fruition if he’s able to pitch well and deep into the game — two things he hasn’t been able to do for most of the season. He had an average Plus/Minus of -21.65 on DraftKings in his last two starts before being moved to the bullpen and has a 4.52 ERA on the year. He carries some GPP appeal given his strikeout ability – his 12-month K/9 of 12.96 is one of the top marks in baseball – but he also carries a lot of risk.
Fastballs
Jake Arrieta: No pitcher has a bigger pricing disparity on today’s slate: He’s the most-expensive pitcher on FanDuel but just the sixth-highest priced on DraftKings. That results in a DraftKings Bargain Rating of 90 percent to go with a K Prediction of 6.7, and pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.46.
Kenta Maeda: He leads all pitchers today with a K Prediction of 8.9, and he has an excellent matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies. They rank in the bottom-seven in both wOBA and strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season, and while there’s currently no line on the game, Maeda will likely be a sizeable favorite. He’s the top option on the early slate.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack on the early slate (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Cleveland Indians:
The Indians currently lead the slate with an implied team total of 4.7 runs. They’re set to face Angels right-hander Parker Bridwell, whose Statcast data over his last two starts has been horrible. He’s allowed an average distance of 240 feet, exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 45 percent, all of which represent increases compared to his 12-month averages.
The Indians will likely be the most popular team on the early slate, so stacking them in a unique manner will be important. Including projected No. 8 hitter Jason Kipnis could accomplish that. He has hit righties significantly better than lefties throughout his career and should be owned at a lower rate than some of his teammates with more premium lineup spots. You can review the ownership dynamics of a particular stack using the new DFS Contests Dashboard.
FantasyDraft allows you to stack up to six batters from the same team, and the top six-man stack on the main slate belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays:
The Rays are implied for a modest 4.6 runs on today’s slate, which ranks just ninth on the main slate. They’re set to face Orioles right-hander Gabriel Ynoa, which puts the entirety of the stacked batters on the positive side of their batting splits:
These batters are collectively underpriced on FantasyDraft, with each owning a Bargain Rating of at least 81 percent. Leadoff hitter Kevin Kiermaier leads the group with a Bargain Rating of 94 percent, and he’s also in the best recent form. He’s posted a distance differential of +25 feet over his last 11 games, and leadoff hitters with comparable differentials have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.15 on FantasyDraft.
Batters
Jayson Werth leads the slate with 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and he continues to massively underperform his Statcast data. He’s posted a distance differential of +45 feet over his last seven games, yet his average Plus/Minus over that time frame has been -3.86 on DraftKings. That’s resulted in a Recent Batted Ball Luck score of +88, and batters with a comparable number of Pro Trends and a similar Recent Batted Ball Luck score have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.61.
Wil Myers is cheap on DraftKings at just $3,700, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96 percent. He also has impressive Statcast data from his last 11 games, including a 263-foot average distance, 94 MPH exit velocity, and 48 percent hard hit rate. The distance represents a differential of +41 feet compared to his 12-month average, and batters with comparable Bargain Ratings and distance differentials have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.21 on DraftKings.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
